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Thursday, September 4, 2008

Back to the lab

Fairplex starts on Friday, but instead of making picks, I will use the time to catch up on research so I'm ready for Oak Tree.

Results -- Del Mar Race 10 -- lost $500

Had $500 riding on #4 She's Cheeky who finished second, but never threatened for the win as #3 Inspired Storm dominated after coming back in his second start off a long layoff.

Total bet--$500
Total net--($500)
Monthly win/loss--$3,910
Current bankroll--$62,165


Results
3 Inspired Storm 24.40 8.00 4.40
4 She's Cheeky 3.60 3.20
12 Stuttgart 6.80

Post time odds
1 Burna Dette 16.3
2 Joint Agreement 16.1
3 Inspired Storm 11.2
4 She's Cheeky 2.2
5 Cover Girl Elle 12.6
6 Sherri Said 65.9
7 Western Engagement 33.4
8 Lil Jorae 30.6
9 Madame Striker 2.8
10 Hard Eight 10.2
11 Judy Patootie 8.9
12 Stuttgart 14.4
SCR Kathy's Garden
SCR Sweet October

Results -- Del Mar Race 9 -- won $4,410

In the Del Mar Futurity, jockey Tyler Baze found a lane on the backstretch where he kept Midshipman out of traffic trouble, although Baze was five-wide on the turn. In mid stretch, it didn't look like Midshipman would pass #4 Coronet of a Baron, but he got up in the final stride.

Midshipman was 3/1 in the morning line, but even though he had the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, his post time odds were an unbelievable 6/1. I guess bettors must think Baffert lost his touch after getting off to a slow start at the meet.

I, however, have not lost faith in Bob and bet $700 to win on Midshipman.

Total bet--$700
Total net--$4,410
Monthly win/loss--$4,410
Current bankroll--$62,665

Results

3 Midshipman $14.60 $8.60 $5.60
4 Coronet of a Baron $8.40 $5.60
7 Street Hero $5.20

Post time odds
1 Wild Wild Posse 31.20
2 Southern Exchange 2.80
3 Midshipman 6.30
4 Coronet of a Baron 6.40
5 Kelly Leak 5.00
6 Kerwin's Way 78.50
7 Street Hero 6.00
8 Blazing Spirit 29.40
9 Mensa Heat 41.40
10 Escalon 15.90
11 Believe in Hope 4.30

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Race 10 Del Mar -- MSW -- 6.5 Fs

Contenders--morning line

#4 She's Cheeky--7/2
#9 Madame Striker--9/2

Starting for the fifth time, #4 She's Cheeky looks like a horse that will end the Del Mar meet with a win. She's run two Beyer Speed Figures in the 80s and has the right running style for 6 1/2 furlongs.

Garrett Gomez is named to ride #9 Madame Striker, whose only start was back in December when she ran an 81 Beyer. She also has a great shot.

I will bet $500 on #4 She's Cheeky at 2/1 and over.

Race 9 Del Mar -- Del Mar Futurity -- 7Fs

Contenders--morning line

#3 Midshipman--3/1
#2 Southern Exchange--7/2

Trainer Bob Baffert has #3 Midshipman in this 11-horse field and his runner has the top Beyer Speed Figure and the best race profile. He did it all while going four paths wide in his maiden breaker. Remember, Baffert won the Del Mar Futurity seven straight times from 1996-2002, but hasn't won it since. However, he looks very strong today.

Shipping from Woodbine, #2 Southern Exchange is undefeated in three starts, but looks a little weaker than the best Midshipman can do.

Therefore, I will bet $700 on #3 Midshipman at 2/1 or better.

Results -- Del Mar -- Race 4 -- lost $200

Ended up betting just two horses -- #6 When We Met and #8 Dos and Don'ts -- at $100 each on this Aug. 24 race as I couldn't get the proper odds on many of the others.

Total bet--$200
Total net--($200)
Monthly win/loss--$3,245
Current bankroll--$58,255

Results
1 Majormotionpicture $5.80 $4.20 $3.20
12 Empire House $4.00 $3.20
9 Massone $2.60

Post time odds
1 Majormotionpicture 1.90
2 Pemba At U. T. K. 102.70
3 Walker Rd. 74.20
4 African Diamond 28.00
5 Regal Coyote 27.40
6 When We Met 18.50
7 Restless Feet 61.90
8 Dos and Don'ts 15.30
9 Massone 3.90
10 Emperor Stone 31.90
11 Launching Pad 5.30
12 Empire House 3.30

Results -- Del Mar Race 2 -- lost $600

In this Aug. 24 race, I lost $600 on #2 Internallyflawless who kept up with Midshipman during a workout, but couldn't match him in this race. Maybe she will be better stretching out.

Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly win/loss--$3,445
Current bankroll--$58,455

Results

5-Toro Bonito 6.80 $3.80 $3.00
9-Magic Roberta $4.60 $3.40
3 Rising Honour $4.60

Post time odds

2 Internallyflawless 4.30
3 Rising Honour 6.90
4 Red White and Brew 6.40
1 Box Office Queen 29.30
5 Toro Bonito 2.40
6 Brooke's Fantasy 54.50
7 Hot Summer Breeze 8.20
9 Magic Roberta 4.10
10 Trixianna 61.90
11 Catana Perez 29.40
12 My Special Secret 52.60
13 Emba U. T. K. 38.50
SCR Vindictive Cat
SCR Miss McCall - -

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Race 4 Del Mar -- MSW -- 2 yos -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Majormotionpicture--4/1
#4 African Diamond--12/1
#6 When We Met--12/1
#7 Restless Feet--20/1
#8 Dos and Don'ts--8/1
#10 Emporor Stone--12/1
#11 Launching Pad--6/1

Breaking out of the first post, #1 Majormotionpicture is trained by Michael Machowsky, whose last seven msw first time starters included three winners. He has good workouts.

The Eoin Harty-trained African Diamond, #4, also has a shot at a price and #11 Launching Pad is a May foal, but clockers say he looks tremendous during morning workouts.

I will bet $300 on #1 Majormotion picture at 7/2 or better, $200 on #4 African Diamond at 10/1 to 19/1 and $100 on any of these at 10/1 to 19/1: #3 Walker Rd., #6 When We Met, #7 Restless Feet, #8 Dos and Don'ts, #10 Emperor Stone and #11 Launching Pad.

Race 2 Del Mar -- MSW -- 2 yo -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line

#2 Internallyflawless--7/2
#4 Red White and Brew--9/2
#1 Box Office Queen--15/1
#7 Hot Summer Breeze--8/1
#11 Cantana Perez--20/1
#12 My Special Secret--20/1

Jumping off the page in this race is #2 Internallyflawless out of the Bob Baffert barn. This Giant's Causeway-filly, who could eventually be a stakes winner, worked with Midshipman on Aug. 10 and kept up with him well, according to Today's Racing Digest. Midshipman ran a 91 Beyer Speed Figure last week in winning a maiden race for 2-year-old colts and, since the average winning Beyer for fillies is only 75, Internallyflawless only needs to run about an 85 to be guaranteed to whip these.

At the right price, #11 Catana Perez and #12 My Special Secret could also be good bets.

In this race, I will bet $400 on #2 Internallyflawless at 2/1, $500 on her at 5/2 or 3/1, and $600 at 7/2 or greater. Also, I will wager $150 on both #11 Catana Perez and #12 My Special Secret at less than 20/1 only; and $100 on any of these if they are between 10/1 and 19/1: #1 Box Office Queen, #6 Brooke's Fantasy, #7 Hot Summer Breeze, #10 Trixianna and #1a Vindictive Cat.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Results Race 6 Del Mar -- won $1,985

On the turn, #1 Street Hero, who the public bet to 4/5, made a huge move up the rail, but #9 Midshipman rallied four wide and ran him down in the stretch. The winner, a first-time starter, was 11/1 and is certainly a welcome relief for trainer Bob Baffert, who had only one win from 31 starters at the meet.

I bet $200 on Midshipman and a total of $375 on two other horses.

Total bet--$575
Total net--$1,985
Monthly win/loss--$4,045
Current bankroll--$59,055

Results

9 Midshipman------$25.60 $7.60 $5.20
1 Street Hero------------$2.80 $2.40
6 Oyster Cat-------------------$3.40

Post time odds

1 Street Hero 0.90
2 Invisible Edge 61.80
3 Launch the Bull 5.00
4 Raikkonen 18.90
5 Nochangenweather 6.50
6 Oyster Cat 5.00
7 Smokey Dehere 49.50
8 Fitzmo 22.40
9 Midshipman 11.80
SCR - Reggae Revolution

Race 6 Del Mar -- MSW -- 2 yo -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Street Hero--5/2
#2 Invisible Edge--20/1
#3 Launch the Bull--7/2
#4 Raikkonen--5/1
#5 Nochangenweather--8/1
#6 Oyster Cat--5/1
#7 Smokey Dehere--30/1
#8 Fitzmo--10/1
#9 Midshipman--8/1
#10 Reggae Revolution--20/1

Obvious horses in this race include #1 Street Hero and #5 Nochangenweather who ran third and fourth, separated by just a nose, on June 29. Either can win at a short price.

But seven first timers will also walk into the starting gate and a few show promise. According to clockers, #8 Fitzmo and #4 Raikkonen have been working out well and several have money-making angles going for them. For example, the trainer of #4 Raikkonen is 3 of 7 with first timers in races like this and bettors got back $4.18 for every $1 bet.

I will bet $200 on #2 Invisible Edge at 10/1 to 19/1, $175 on #4 Raikkonen at 7/2 to 19/1 and $200 on #6 Oyster Cat at 7/2 to 19/1. Also, I want $100 on #8 Fitzmo at 10/1 to 19/1, and $200 on #9 Midshipman at 7/2 to 19/1.

Results Del Mar Race 8 -- lost $750

Had a five-horse set going for me in this race, but none of them could get the job done.

Total bet--$750
Total net--($750)
Monthly win/loss--$2,060
Current bankroll--$57,070

Results

5 Coastal Souvenir------$9.20 $5.00 $4.00
9 One More Week---------------$9.80 $5.80
2 Tom Quinn-------------------------$8.40

Post time odds

1 Pemba At U. T. K. 73.20
2 Tom Quinn 15.00
3 Speaking 13.20
4 Warren's Tony R. 55.20
5 Coastal Souvenir 3.60
6 Brave Justice 2.70
7 Reel Popular 66.70
8 J B Wine 3.10
9 One More Week 9.10
10 Rockin Zola 10.80
11 Thunderfrmdownundr 29.40
12 Armenian Nose 14.30
SCR - Got Alot Going

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Race 8 Del Mar -- MDN40K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Pemba At U.T.K.--20/1
#2 Tom Quinn--8/1
#3 Speaking--8/1
#5 Coastal Souvenir--5/1
#6 Brave Justice--7/2
#7 Reel Popular--20/1
#8 J B Wine--9/2
#9 One More Week--10/1
#10 Rockin Zola--6/1
#11 Thunderfrmdownundr--12/1
#12 Armenian Nose--20/1
#13 Got Alot Going--4/1

Of the 13 runners entered, six of them are first-time starters. I like when the trainer is also the owner, which is the case with #7 Reel Popular. Trainer Paula Capestro is listed as 0-for-17 with first timers in the Daily Racing Form, but this horse will be a good bet from 7/2 to 19/1. According to my records, of 53 trainer-owners in this type of race, there were 10 winners and bettors got back $1.56 for every $1 wagered. Also, Rick Taylor is listed as the breeder and when he ran Golden Eagle Farm they were adept at winning first time.

More than half of these races are won by a horse on the lead at the half mile pole. Of the horses who ran, #3 Speaking shows the best early foot.

Trainer Clifford Sise has a runner owned by Martin Wygod, #9 One More Week, and those connections usually win either first time or second time out.

The average winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is 67 and #6 Brave Justice ran a 66 on July 17.

I will bet $250 to win on #9 One More Week at 5/1 or more, $200 on #7 Reel Popular at less than 20/1 -- and $50 if 20/1 or greater -- $200 on #3 Speaking at 5/1 or more, $150 on Tom Quinn at 8/1 or better, and $100 on any of these horses with post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1: #1 Pemba at U.T.K., #2 Tom Quinn, #11 Thunderfrmdownundr and #12 Armenian Nose.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Results Del Mar Race 3 -- lost $950

Second-time starter Brinson woke up and ran a great race while #1 Little Dude, for some reason, went to the lead for the first time in his life. That might have been a good strategy if the race was at 6 furlongs or less, but he should have laid off the pace a length or two at 6 1/2 furlongs. He led until 100 yards from the wire then stopped.

I ended up betting $600 on #1 Little Dude, $200 on #7 Mystification and $150 on #3 Dark Hawk.

Total bet--$950
Total net--($950)
Monthly win/loss--$2,810
Current bankroll--$57,820

Results

2 Brinson------$57.60 $18.60 $9.20
6 Son of Pegasus-------$3.60 $2.80
4 Benny's Benchmark----------$5.60

Post time odds

1 Little Dude 3.40
2 Brinson 27.80
3 Dark Hawk 8.60
4 Benny's Benchmark 8.40
5 Fast Vole 48.10
6 Son of Pegasus 1.30
7 Mystification 8.10
8 Athenry 5.20

Monday, August 4, 2008

Race 3 Del Mar -- MDN32k -- 6.5FS

Contenders--morning line

#1 Little Dude--3/1
#3 Dark Hawk--8/1
#4 Benny's Benchmark--6/1
#6 Son of Pegasus--5/2
#7 Mystification--6/1
#8 Athenry--7/2

Runners #6 Son of Pegasus and #4 Benny's Benchmark have last race Beyer Speed Figures that are 72 and 70 respectively, so they will jump off the page and people should bet them to underlays. But the 63 Beyer that #1 Little Dude ran on the grass last time should keep money off him and if he runs back to the 76 he ran at 6F on April 26 then he'll be tough to beat.

Also, #7 Mystification, who is making his second lifetime start, broke slowly but came on strong at 5 1/2 furlongs on July 11. He looks like an OK bet today.

Finally, first-time starter #3 Dark Hawk is trained by Peter Eurton who is two-for-three when he sends first starters into maiden claiming sprints for older horses. One winner was 10/1 and the other was a 9/1 shot.

I will bet $600 on #1 Little Dude if he's at least 2/1. Also, if #3 Dark Hawk is between 5/1 and 15/1 I will bet $150 on him and if #7 Mystification is 5/1 or more I want $200 to win.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Race 10 Del Mar -- No action

None of the four horses I was looking at went off at proper betting odds, so I didn't bet anything. However, one of them won and paid 7/5.

Results

9 Chanjo------$4.80 $3.20 $2.40
4 Red Door Drive----$7.00 $4.80
6 Union Dancer------------$3.80

Post time odds

1 Youthful Ambition 4.00
2 Probation Please 10.40
3 Tootuffforthedevil 58.40
4 Red Door Drive 8.80
5 Moambe 56.00
6 Union Dancer 5.30
7 Dancing Wildfire 13.00
8 Magna Cum Laude 11.80
9 Chanjo 1.40
10 Royal Albert 17.30

Results Del Mar Race 7 -- won $2,090

I ended up with seven runners going for me in this contentious 12-horse race, as many went off at odds between 5/1 and 19/1. However, I weighted the bets toward the first-time starters between 10/1 and 19/1 and fortunately the one that popped -- #3 Believe in Hope -- was one of my two $250 bets.

I also had $250 on #11 Payment Approved and $200 on #2 Launch the Bull, #6 Fiery Rebel, #8 Meteore and #12 El Chubasco. And that wasn't enough, so I had to take a $150 flier on 48-1 short Crazy Cash. After betting $1,460, I collected $3,550, which was just like betting one 3/2 shot.

Total bet--$1,460
Total net--$2,090
Monthly win/loss--$3,760
Current bankroll--$58,770

Results

3 Believe In Hope------$28.40 $13.80 $9.40
7 Gold Aly---------------------$9.40 $5.60
6 Fiery Rebel------------------------$4.00

Post time odds

2 Launch the Bull 12.40
3 Believe in Hope 13.20
4 Azooz 40.90
1 Gato Go Win 4.00
5 Crazy Cash 48.90
6 Fiery Rebel 5.90
7 Gold Aly 7.90
8 Meteore 8.90
9 Snapshot 2.70
10 Regal Coyote 51.50
11 Payment Approved 16.80
12 El Chubasco 8.90
SCR - Oyster Cat
SCR - Arashi Cat

Results Del Mar race 5--lost $250

Only horse of the three possibilities who fell into the 5/2 to 7/1 odds range was #4 Dollar Mountain, who ran well but didn't have another gear for the stretch.

Total bet--$250
Total net--($250)
Monthly win/loss--$1,670
Current bankroll--$56,680

Results

5 Ginobili------$12.20 $6.20 $3.80
4 Dollar Mountain------$5.40 $3.60
3 Holy Thunder---------------$3.80

Post time odds

1 Valentine Gift 31.50
2 Benjy's Pride 39.10
3 Holy Thunder 3.90
4 Dollar Mountain 5.40
5 Ginobili 5.10
6 Must Be Joking 12.80
7 Educated Risk 11.10
8 Turn to the King 11.80 5
9 Rumba Along 1.60

Results Race 2 Del Mar -- lost $600

Bet a total of $600 on a speed horse and two others that I considered overlays. But none of them fired.

Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly win/loss--$1,920
Current bankroll--$56,930

Results

3 Afleet's Design------$7.00 $3.40 $2.80
9 Anatolian Gold-------------$4.00 $3.00
5 Highly Unusual-------------------$3.20

Post time odds

1 Mark of a Pirate 30.10
2 Runinfromthedeputy 19.60
3 Afleet's Design J 2.50
4 Sur Brio 6.80
5 Highly Unusual 3.90
6 Royal Gold Cat 80.90
8 Phantom North 32.30
9 Anatolian Gold 2.60
10 Black Magic 23.00
11 Searing 105.00
12 Theforcebwithdixie 77.80
13 Bein Breezy 7.50
SCR - Seenosmoke
SCR - Storm Central

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Race 10 Del Mar -- MSW -- 1 1/16 Turf

Contenders--morning line

#1 Youthful Ambition--6/1
#8 Magna Cum Laude--12/1
#9 Chanjo--2/1
#10 Royal Albert--12/1

Three of these horses are coming off recent long layoffs and #1 Youthful Ambition is owned by B. Wayne Hughes, who does well with second-time starters.

I will bet $150 on Youthful Ambition at 5/1 or more and $250 on any of these three horses at 5/2 to 7/1: #8 Magna Cum Laude, #9 Chanjo and #10 Royal Albert.

Race 7 Del Mar -- MSW -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#2 Launch the Bull--10/1
#3 Believe in Hope--12/1
#4 Azooz--20/1
#1 Gato Go Win--6/1
#5 Crazy Cash--20/1
#6 Fiery Rebel--6/1
#8 Meteore--9/2
#9 Snapshot--7/2
#10 Regal Coyote--20/1
#11 Payment Approved--15/1
#12 El Chubasco--6/1
#13 Oyster Cat--3/1

This 13-horse field has 10 first-time starters and many of them have winning profiles. Over the past few years, I found success spreading out my bets in these races and gambling that a big price shows up. The best bets in races like these have post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1, so that's what I focus on.

If any of these horses are 10/1 to 19/1, I'll bet $250 on them: #3 Believe in Hope, #8 Meteore, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat. Also, I'll bet $200 on #2 Launch the Bull, #4 Azooz and #9 Snapshot, only at 10/1 to 19/1.

If those horses don't fall into the higher odds range, then I will bet $200 on the following horses if they are 5/1 to 9/1: #2 Launch the Bull, #3 Believe in Hope, #6 Fiery Rebel, #8 Meteore, #9 Snapshot, #10 Regal Coyote, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat.

Finally, I've seen Everest Stables win at 50/1 in the past, so I want $100 on #5 Crazy Cash at 15/1 or more.

Maybe I'll lose all my bets in this race. Maybe I'll hit a 6/1 shot that won't do much more than break me even. But I'm gambling for a payoff of $22 to $38, and if that happens, then I'll do well.

Race 5 Del Mar -- MSW -- 1 1/16 Turf

Contenders--morning line

#4 Dollar Mountain--4/1
#7 Educated Risk--15/1
#8 Turn to the King--8/1

On any of these three horses, who have recently had long layoffs, I will bet $250 if their post time odds are 5/2 to 7/1.

Race 2 Del Mar -- MDN25K -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Mark of a Pirate--20/1
#3 Afleet's Design--3/1
#5 Highly Unusual--5/1
#7 Storm Central--4/1
#8 Phantom North--20/1
#9 Anatolian Gold--9/2


Large 14-horse field should produce a good payoff in the win pool. Although #5 Highly Unusual has a big pace advantage in this race, I am keeping an open mind and will bet some of the best overlays.

I will bet $300 on #5 Highly Unusual and #7 Storm Central, both only at 3/1 or more.

Also, I'll wager $200 on #3 Afleet's Design at 7/1 or better and #9 Anatolian Gold at 5/1 or more.

I'll bet $150 to win if the post time odds on #1 Mark of a Pirate are at least 8/1 and the same amount on #8 Phantom North at 20/1 or more.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Results Del Mar Race 5 -- won $3,420

Coming into the race, Rafael Bejarano was three-for-three when riding first-time starters for trainer Doug O'Neill and he didn't disappoint Friday, booting home #5 Escalon at 13/1.

I bet $300 on Escalon among the five horses I backed for a total betting bill of $1,050.

Total bet--$1,050
Total net--$3,420
Monthly win/loss--$2,520
Current bankroll--$57,530

Results

5 Escalon------$29.80 $13.00 $6.20
2 Tudor Blue----------$10.20 $6.40
9 Teamwork-------------------$3.60

Post time odds

1 Johnny Be Bad 16.80
2 Tudor Blue 8.20
3 Cookin Expresso 6.70
4 All Saint 48.30
5 Escalon 13.90
6 Tap Tap I Win 11.10
7 Pinstripe Kid 1.50
8 Cold Surf 11.60
9 Teamwork 3.10

Results Del Mar Race 3 -- lost $900

Spread $900 over three horses, but was beaten by low-priced contender #3 The Bat Signal. The winner had run #6 Mr. Rod into the ground on July 13, and was hoping that the rival might turn the tables.

Tommy Town Thoroughbreds first-timer #1 Star Redeemer ran well at 16/1, however Bob Baffert's #2 Yonkers Joe did not.

Total bet--$900
Total net--($900)
Monthly win/loss--($900)
Current bankroll--$54,110
Results

3 The Bat Signal------$6.60 $3.80 $2.60
1 Star Redeemer-------------$13.80 $5.60
6 Beau Gris-----------------------$3.40

Post time odds

1 Star Redeemer 16.00
2 Yonkers Joe 5.70
3 The Bat Signal 2.30
5 Beau Gris 2.60
6 Mr. Rod 3.50
7 Nascar Johnny 6.80
8 Genki 17.80
SCR - African Diamond

Race 5 Del Mar -- MSW -- 6 Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Johnny Be Bad--8/1
#3 Cookin Expresso--4/1
#4 All Saint--20/1
#5 Escalon--8/1
#6 Tap Tap I Win--10/1
#8 Cold Surf--8/1
#9 Teamwork12/1

I intentionally left favorites #2 Tudor Blue and #7 Pinstripe Kid off the contender's list because I think they are two horses to definately bet against. Of the six first timers, #5 Escalon looks interesting as Rafael Bejarano is 3-for-3 when riding first starters for Doug O'Neill. The colt is also an early foal that is shipping from another circuit--both good angles.

Second time starter #3 Cookin Expresso looked like the July 2 race was for practice as jockey Migliore didn't appear to be trying too hard at 5/1. Today, Garrett Gomez rides.

I will bet $300 on #5 Escalon and $200 on #1 Johnny Be Bad at 7/2 to 19/1; $150 on both #8 Cold Surf and #4 All Saint at 7/2 to 19/1; $200 on #9 Teamwork at 6/1 or better and $150 on #6 Tap Tap I Win at 10/1 to 19/1. Also, if #3 Cookin Expresso is 7/2 or more, I will bet $250 on him.

Race 3 Del Mar -- MDN80K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Star Redeemer--8/1
#2 Yonkers Joe--4/1
#3 The Bat Signal--3/1
#4 African Diamond--10/1
#6 Mr. Rod--7/2

On July 13, #3 The Bat Signal blasted out of the gate and dueled with #6 Mr. Rod. Both have legitimate early speed for this class and should be out in front again. Three first-time starters are in this race, with the best of them being Tommy Town Thoroughbred's #1 Star Redeemer and #2 Yonkers Joe, who is trained by Bob Baffert.

I will bet $250 on #1 Star Redeemer if 7/1 or more; $400 on #2 Yonkers Joe if less than 10/1, but only $150 if greater than 10/1; and $250 on either #3 The Bat Signal or #6 Mr. Rod, if they are 3/1 or greater. If both are 3/1 or more than I will take the longer of the two.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Results Race 8 Del Mar -- won $1,010

In sprints for 2-year-olds at 6 furlongs or less, I always prefer the first-time starters to a well-bet favorite that has run before. In this race, #9 Catalina Fog was bet to 6/5 and almost hung on for the win, but 6/1 shot #8 It's Gotta Be Us rolled by him in late stretch. I had $200 on the winner, $200 on #4 Cach D Fish and $150 on #11 Chief Poniso.

Another note about this race, #4 Cach D Fish swerved at the beginning, rushed up on the backstretch and was blocked all the way to the wire. He was probably the best horse in the race, but had nowhere to go. Check it out on the replay (he's breaking from the 3 hole) and be sure to view the head on.

Total bet--$550
Total net--$1,010
Monthly win/loss--$3,310
Current bankroll--$55,010

Results

8 It's Gotta Be Us------$15.60 $6.40 $3.80
9 Catalina Fog-----------------$3.00 $2.60
2 Tahoe Kid--------------------------$4.40

Post time odds

2 Tahoe Kid 8.50
3 She Made Me Do It 39.20
4 Cach D Fish 4.00
5 Warren's Hotrod 28.80
6 Simply 48.50
7 He's a Handful 8.70
8 It's Gotta Be Us 6.80
9 Catalina Fog 1.30
10 Milwaukee Rocket 9.80
11 Chief Poniso 18.40
SCR - I Want My Money

Results Del Mar Race 3 -- no action

Horses coming off layoffs in maiden turf routes are a profitable bet at times and I was waiting for #2 Cheryl's Surprise to come into the 5/2 to 7/1 range. But she went off at 10/1 then led the whole way.

I sat out and had no action.

Results

2 Cheryl's Surprise------$22.80 $8.40 $6.00
5 Alley Theater-----------------$10.00 $6.40
1 Love to Siphon-----------------------$3.20

Post time odds
1 Love to Siphon 2.50
2 Cheryl's Surprise 10.40
3 Usk Melody 30.90
4 Mohaka 7.40
5 Alley Theater 11.00
6 Keilly Belle 17.50
7 Ditto This 35.30
8 Humor Her Along 9.90
9 Sunny Peace 5.80
10 Precious Union 2.80

Results Del Mar Race 2 -- won $720

Brite Ruler had a huge pace advantage over these horses. Jockey Rosario eased him to the lead and won comfortably while in front throughout.

I wrote that I would bet $300 on either #2 Brite Ruler or #7 Sunshine In whoever was the higher price, as long at they were at least 2/1. Sunshine In was pounded to 6/5, so it became an easy decision as Brite Ruler was double the price at nearly 5/2.

Total bet--$300
Total net--$720
Monthly win/loss--$2,300
Current bankroll--$54,000

Results

2 Brite Ruler------$6.80 $3.80 $3.00
1 Toppler----------------$5.80 $4.20
6 Warren's Cat Time------------$7.00

Post time odds

1 Toppler 5.60
2 Brite Ruler 2.40
3 Crown of Splendor 21.60
4 Verypq 13.30
5 Big Red Bean 35.70
6 Warren's Cat Time 18.40
7 Sunshine In 1.10
8 No Laughing Matter 10.10

Race 8 Del Mar -- MDN32K -- 5.5FS

Contenders--morning line

#2 Tahoe Kid--6/1
#3 She Made Me Do It--15/1
#4 Catch D Fish--6/1
#6 Simply--20/1
#8 It's Gotta Be Us-8/1
#9 Catalina Fog--2/1
#11 Chief Poniso--8/1

This 10-horse field includes six first-time starters and, although I wouldn't be too surprised to see #9 Catalina Fog win, I will try to beat the 2/1 favorite with the new blood.

Not many of these first starters have good workouts, but #4 Catch D Fish is the exception and therefore I will bet him at 7/2 to 19/1. Another that looks promising is #8 It's Gotta Be Us, who is an early foal. Also, trainer Doug O'Neill is 7/35, or 20 percent, when his 2-year-olds are starting first time in a maiden claiming race. Every $1 bet has returned $1.51 on this O'Neill angle.

On the site, I will bet $200 on #8 It's Gotta Be Us at 5/1 to 19/1, and $200 on #4 Catch D Fish at 7/2 to 19/1. Also, if the following horses are 10/1 to 19/1 then I will bet $150 on them: #2 Tahoe Kid, #3 She Made Me Do It, #6 Simply, #11 Chief Poniso.

Race 3 Del Mar -- MSW -- 1 1/16 turf

Contenders--morning line

#2 Cheryl's Surprise--8/1
#3 Usk Melody--15/1

These two horses are not necessarily the only contenders, but they are the only horses I will consider betting in this race. A great value in these races are horses coming off layoffs, but the price must be right.

I will bet $200 on #2 Cheryl's Surprise and #3 Usk Melody only if they are 5/2 to 7/1.

Race 2 Del Mar -- MDN25K -- 6.5FS

Contenders--morning line

#2 Brite Ruler--5/2
#7 Sunshine In--8/5

This looks like a two horse race with #2 Brite Ruler having all the speed and #7 Sunshine In possessing the best Beyer Speed Figures and closing kick. Brite Ruler is coming out of the same extremely fast June 21 race as A Lil Dumaani, who won a 40K maiden race on Monday.

Brite Ruler also stalked the fast pace on June 21 and weakened to finish just 2 1/2 lengths behind A Lil Dumaani.

The challenge here will be to get 2/1 on either #2 Brite Ruler or #7 Sunshine In. If either of them do go off at 2/1 or better, then I will bet $300 on that horse. And if somehow both are 2/1 or more then I will bet that amount on the longer of the two.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Results Race 2 -- Del Mar -- lost $500

Halo's Clean Sheet, #1, looked like the better bet when compared with #2 Flashing Forward, but she swerved left at the break and was quickly 10 lengths behind the others. Halo's Clean Sheet did well to be involved in a photo for second. My other bet, the Carla Gaines-trained second timer #6 Stuttgart, broke in the middle of the pack and never threatened.

Total bet--$500
Total net--($500)
Monthly bankroll--$1,580
Current bankroll--$53,280

Results

7 Rare Ribbon------$6.80 $3.20 $2.40
2 Flashing Forward--------$3.00 $2.40
1 Halo's Clean Sheet-----------$2.60

Post time odds

1 Halo's Clean Sheet 3.30
2 Flashing Forward 2.00
3 Saint's Crown 12.40
5 My Lucky Stars 10.60
6 Stuttgart 4.80
7 Rare Ribbon 2.40
SCR - It'sallinthegenes

Results Race 5 Del Mar -- won $1,320

A Lil Dumaani, #3, ran a few lengths off the pace then surged to the lead in the stretch and won without a fight. Because the Barry Abrams-trained horse Hy Temp was scratched, the only bet I had was for $400 on the winner.

Total bet--$400
Total net--$1,320
Monthly bankroll--$2,080
Current bankroll--$53,780

Results

3 A Lil Dumaani----------$8.60 $5.00 $3.20
1 Camo-------------------------$6.40 $4.20
7 I Am Game--------------------------$3.00

Post time odds

1 Camo 5.00
2 Coolerator 8.30
3 A Lil Dumaani 3.30
4 One Hot Storm 13.90
5 Patriate 30.40
6 Tigley 2.90
7 I Am Game 3.00
9 Warrington 11.20
SCR - Hy Temp

Monday, July 28, 2008

Race 2 Del Mar -- MDN50K -- 6.5FS

Contenders--morning line

#1 Halo's Clean Sheet--3/1
#2 Flashing Forward--5/2
#3 Saint's Crown--5/1
#6 Stuttgart--5/1


Breaking from the rail, #1 Halo's Clean Sheet fits the profile of the type of horses that win 6 1/2 and 7 furlong races, and #2 Flashing Forward would also fit the profile if she didn't go three-to-four paths wide on the turn June 22.

The Jack Carava-trained #3 Saints Crown is running back for the second time off a 17-month layoff and she has positive betting angles at 2/1 to 4/1. Second-time starter #6 Stuttgart was checked at the break last time, in what might have been a practice race, but she moved well when asked to run. Gaines wins at a high percentage when her horses are making their second lifetime start and this one is adding blinkers.

I will bet $300 on whoever is longer between #1 Halo's Clean Sheet and #2 Flashing Forward. If #3 Saint's Crown is between 2/1 and 4/1, then I will bet $250 on her, but if not, I will bet $200 on #6 Stuttgart.

Race 5 Del Mar -- MDN40K -- 6FS

Contenders--morning line

#1 Camo--6/1
#3 A Lil Dumaani--9/2
#5 Patriate--12/1
#8 Hy Temp--6/1
#7 I Am Game--7/2

In his June 21 race, #3 A Lil Dumaani posted an extremely fast second quarter mile while chasing a loose on the lead winner. He looks like he'll be close to the lead today and stands a good chance for the win.

The Barry Abrams-trained #8 Hy Temp was blocked in the stretched while trying to rally on the turf back in October 2007. He's been off since then, but this is the type of horse the public doesn't like to bet and they win more than their fair share.

In fact, horses like Hy Temp are 21/68 for 31 percent with $1 returning $1.75, while the trainer is 2/4 with maiden layoff types. Also, a horse that fit the angle won the last race on Sunday, paying $11.60.

I will wager $400 on #3 A Lil Dumaani and $300 on #8 Hy Temp, both at odds of at least 2/1.

Results Race 10 Del Mar -- lost $750

I put $750 on #11 Stag on the Run, but he was never in the race. The favorite, #9 Lotacat, made an OK move on the outside, but never threatened for the win. I needed at least 2/1 on him for a bet, however he went off at 3/2.

Total bet--$750
Total net--($750)
Monthly bankroll--$760
Current bankroll--$52,460

Results

1 Gold Star Status---------$49.00 $21.80 $8.60
13 Tizsong----------------------- $7.00 $4.20
9 Lotacat--------------------------------$2.40

Post time odds

1 Gold Star Status 23.50
4 Sir Carson 26.60
5 Woodman's Hope 19.00
6 Beau's Message 40.20
7 Peace Prospect 11.10
8 Texas Devil 7.10
9 Lotacat 1.50
10 Thunder Alliance 39.80
11 Stag On the Run 4.30
12 Norco Pal 13.10
13 Tizsong 5.50
SCR - Geauxforthedeaux
SCR - Crown of Splendor
SCR - Cat Report

Results Del Mar Race 7 -- lost $200

Although Baffert first-time starter #11 Pick to Click didn't run at all, early speed horses #9 Charlie's Moment and #1 Empire House both ran huge at big odds. Charlie's Moment nosed favorite #2 Street Hero on the wire, but I did not bet him because his odds eased over the range in the final minute.

I lost $200 on #11 Pick to Click.

Total bet--$200
Total net--($200)
Monthly bankroll--$1,510
Current bankroll--$53,210

Results

9 Charlie's Moment--------$44.20 $18.40 $13.00
2 Street Hero--------------------$5.00 $4.00
1 Empire House--------------------------$19.60


Post time odds

1 Empire House 41.30
2 Street Hero 2.90
3 Fassnacht 10.70
4 Kerwin's Way 55.10
5 Only Be Cause 44.40
6 Speight the Halo 1.50
7 Chocolate Candy 9.40
8 Luckiest Man 38.60
9 Charlie's Moment 21.10
10 Massone 6.50
11 Pick to Click 13.50
12 Say It Again 61.00

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Race 10 Del Mar -- MDN25K -- 6.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#3 Geauxforthedeaux--9/2
#9 Lotacat-7/2
#11 Stag On the Run--5/1

The speed of the race is #11 Stag On the Run, but I think he'll have a tough time holding off the late charge of #9 Lotacat, who has run a few races that would win this thing.

I will put $1,000 on #9 Lotacat at 2/1 or more and $750 on #11 Stag On the Run.

Race 7 Del Mar -- MSW -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line
#1 Empire House--20/1
#6 Speight the Halo--2/1
#8 Luckiest Man--20/1
#9 Charlie's Moment--15/1
#10 Massone--6/1
#11 Pick to Click--12/1


Speed horses #1 Empire House and #9 Charlie's Moment are worth a token wager at high odds. The best bet in here is #11 Pick to Click, a Bob Baffert-trained first time starter. He's an early foal and has had four good workouts. Good angles on this horse from 7/2 up to 19/1.

I will bet $300 on #11 Pick to Click from 3/1 to 9/1, but only $200 on him at 10/1 to 19/1. Also, I will put $150 on #8 Luckiest Man if he falls into the 10/1 to 19/1 odds range. Finally, I will take $50 to win on #1 Empire House if less than 20/1 and the same on #9 Charlie's Moment at 20/1 or less.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Results Del Mar Race 5 -- lost $250

The odds on four of the first-time starters I was looking at did not fall into my bettable range of 10/1 to 19/1. After #4 Jet Set Lass was scratched, I only wagered on #2 Alex B. Good and that $250 was lost when she didn't run well.

Total bet--$250
Total net--($250)
Monthly bankroll--$1,710
Current bankroll--$53,410

Results

3 Tammy's Luck----------$18.80 $7.00 $4.60
7 Victory Dancer-------------- $3.00 $2.40
6 One Perfect Karat------------------$4.00

Post time odds

1 Chilliwack 6.40
2 Alex B. Good 27.40
3 Tammy's Luck 8.40
6 One Perfect Karat 6.70
7 Victory Dancer 1.10
8 Keep Active 4.40
9 Rusalka 9.60
11 Boehle 59.00
12 Costa Marta 34.50
SCR - #5 Princess Suances
SCR - #10 No Due Diligence
SCR - #4 Jet Set Lass

Results Del Mar Race 3 -- won $1,010

Trainer Clifford Sise had Dashwood ready to roll as the 2-year-old colt came out of the gate running and hung on by an neck. Of the other four first-time starters that I was considering, only #7 Mickey Rocks went off between 10/1 and 19/1 and speedball Sherry's Reddy, #4, was scratched. So that left me with a $200 bet on #5 Dashwood and $150 to win on #7 Mickey Rocks.

Total bet--$350
Total net--$1,010
Monthly bankroll--$1,960
Current bankroll--$53,660

Results

5 Dashwood-----------$13.60 $5.20 $3.80
2 Got Alot Going------------$3.20 $2.60
10 Aquicksting--------------------$5.00

Post time odds

1 Uintah 21.60
2 Got Alot Going 1.80
3 Rochelle's Jimmy 33.60
5 Dashwood 5.80
6 Celestial Topper 7.20
7 Mickey Rocks 18.40
8 Kitty Caliente 2.20
9 Warrens Mr Boswell 30.40
10 Aquicksting 9.90
SCR - Sherry's Reddy

Race 5 Del Mar -- MSW -- 5.5Fs

Contenders-morning line

#1 Chilliwack--9/2
#2 Alex B. Good--10/1
#3 Tammy's Luck--10/1
#4 Jet Set Lass--12/1
#6 One Perfect Karat--6/1
#7 Victory Dancer--5/2
#8 Keep Active--6/1
#11 Boehle--20/1
#12 Costa Marta--12/1

In this race, second-time starter #2 Alex B. Good showed excellent speed on June 29 and is bettable. The best wager of the five first-time starters in the race is #12 Costa Marta who is an early foal being trained by Marty Jones.

I'll bet $250 on #2 Alex B. Good at 3/1 or more and $300 on #12 Costa Marta only if 10/1 to 19/1. Also, I'll bet $100 on any of these horses only if they fall into the 10/1 to 19/1 range: #4 Jet Set Lass, #6 One Perfect Karat, #8 Keep Active and #11 Boehle.

Race 3 Del Mar -- MDN40K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Uintah--20/1
#2 Got Alot Going--9/2
#3 Rochelle's Jimmy--15/1
#4 Sherry's Reddy--5/1
#5 Dashwood--5/1
#6 Celestial Topper--5/1
#7 Mickey Rocks--10/1

Five first-time starters are going in here and none of them look like particularly strong bets, but one may win at a good price nevertheless.

Martin Wygod owns #5 Dashwood and he's trained by probably the cagiest trainer on the grounds in Clifford Sise, who can work them out slow and run them fast. Wygod likes to win second time, but if this first-timer is 5/1 or more he's probably worth a small wager.

The quickest of the horses who have run looks like #4 Sherry's Reddy, who I'll bet at 3/1 or more.

I'll bet $150 to win on the following horses only if they fall into the 10/1 to 19/1 range: #1 Uintah, #3 Rochelle's Jimmy, #6 Celestial Topper, and #7 Mickey Rocks. Also, I'll put $200 on #5 Dashwood at 5/1 or more and $200 on #4 Sherry's Reddy at 3/1 or greater.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Results Race 9 Del Mar -- won $4,700

This was a case of two horses who had very similar pace ratings. But #2 Elusive Destiny was 6/5 because he had 73 and 75 Beyer numbers earned in 6.5 furlong races, while #3 Special Grey Ghost form was a bit hidden as he ran Beyers of 65 and 68 in 6F and 5.5F races while presssing the pace in his most recent and coming from the back in his third race back.

The plan was to bet $1,000 on whoever was longer and #3 Special Grey Ghost got the nod.

Total bet--$1,000
Total net--$4,700
Monthly bankroll--$950
Current bankroll--$52,650

Results

3 Special Grey Ghost------$11.40 $5.60 $4.00
10 Quite the Man-----------------$5.80 $4.40
5 Benny's Benchmark--------------------$9.80

Post time odds

1 Limited Profit 15.00
2 Elusive Destiny 1.10
3 Special Grey Ghost 4.70
5 Benny's Benchmark 32.60
6 Looking At You 31.50
7 Baby Gotham 7.30
8 Brinson 44.50
9 Happy Prayer 8.90
10 Quite the Man 4.90
SCR - Cadeaux du Monde

Results Race 4 Del Mar -- lost $600

Surprisingly, I ended up betting only two horses in this race because three of the first timers that I liked drifted above the 20/1 betting zone. In the end, I put $350 on #9 Kinesiology and $250 on #7 Lippy Rules, who was in contention until the top of the stretch.

Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly bankroll--($3,750)
Current bankroll--$47,950

Results

1 Turtle Creek Babe-------$16.80 $7.00 $4.00
2 Stardom Bound------------------$6.20 $3.40
10 Montana Fields----------------------$2.60


Post time odds

1 Turtle Creek Babe 7.40
2 Stardom Bound 4.30
3 Rising Honour 32.50
4 Oro Blanco 9
5 Irish Gypsy 3.90
6 Bujumbura 32.10
7 Lippy Rules 7.90
8 Madeline Ruby 43.60
9 Kinesiology 16.50
10 Montana Fields 1.40

Result Race 3 Del Mar -- lost $1,600

Legend of My Own, trained by Jeff Mullins, was one of my main choices based on the good race he ran last time while encountering trouble. I also played #8 Major Smoke because his odds were slightly better than #9 Draft Choice's were.

Anyway, #5 One Chin Again was too good for any of them today.

Total bet--$1,600
Total net--($1,600)
Monthly bankroll--($3,150)
Current bankroll--$48.550

Results

5 One Chin Again--------$12.40 $5.40 $3.20
9 Draft Choice-----------------$4.00 $2.80
8 Major Smoke------------------------$2.60

Post time odds

1 Victory Joe 9.60
2 Cole Rocks 9.20
3 Rollin n' Tumblin 41.00
4 Michael's Notes 10.70
5 One Chin Again 5.20
6 Justice Reigns 31.20
7 Legend of My Own 4.90
8 Major Smoke 3.00
9 Draft Choice 2.60

Results Race 1 Del Mar -- no action

After two of #9 Russian Liquor's main contenders -- #3 Son of Dionisi and #4 Sin City Glow -- were scratched, Russian Liquor had a walk in the park. The only problem was he was bet to 7/5 so I ended up having no action.

Results

9 Russian Liquor---------$4.80 $3.40 $2.40
5 Malydar----------------------$8.60 $4.00
7 Athenry----------------------------$2.20

Post time odds

1 Built for Thederby 32.70
2 Nasty Gent 10.40
5 Malydar 13.10
6 Tri City Dan 34.80
7 Athenry 1.40
8 Bay Zing 5.70
9 Russian Liquor 1.40
SCR Sincity Glow
SCR Son of Dionisi

Race 9 Del Mar -- MDN 25K -- 7Fs

Contenders--morning line

#2 Elusive Destiny--2/1
#3 Special Grey Ghost--3/1

Either of these two horses looks good, but going by the morning line the prices are low.

I'll bet $1,000 on the longer price of the two between #2 Elusive Destiny and #3 Special Grey Ghost as long as they are 2/1 or more.

Race 4 Del Mar -- 5.5Fs -- MSW

Contenders--morning line

#2 Stardom Bound--3/1
#3 Rising Honour--12/1
#4 Oro Blanco--20/1
#5 Irish Gypsy--4/1
#6 Bujumbura--12/1
#7 Lippy Rules--5/1
#8 Madeline Ruby--20/1
#9 Kinesiology--12/1
#10 Montana Fields--7/2

Seven first time starters go in this one and am going to have to play the board. I like these horses at 7/2 to 19/1 -- #2 Stardom Bound, #3 Rising Honour, #9 Kinesiology, #10 Montana Fields. These are good from 10/1 to 19/1 #4 Oro Blanco, #6 Bujumbura and #8 Madeline Ruby. Bob Baffert's second timer #5 Irish Gypsy might win and spoil the party, but I have to bet against her because there is too much opportunity in this race for a big price. The speed of the horses who have run before appears to be #7 Lippy Rules.


I will put $350 on #9 Kinesiology at 10/1-19/1 and $200 #6 Bujumbura and #8 Madeline Ruby if they are 10/1 to 19/1. Any other first timer that is 10/1 to 19/1, I will bet $150 on. If I only have three plays in that range or fewer then I'll put $250 on #7 Lippy Rules, at 5/1, but if she's less than that I'll forget about Lippy Rules and bet $300 on the longest of the first timers who are less than 10/1 among #2, #3, #9 and #10.

Race 3 Del Mar -- MSW -- 6.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#5 One Chin Again--7/2
#7 Legend of My Own--6/1
#8 Major Smoke--4/1
#9 Draft Choice--5/2

The speed of the race is #5 One Chin Again, who I am hoping is challenged by one of the four first-time starters in the race. On the outside, #9 Draft Choice and #8 Major Smoke can win if they run back to their last races, but they have had five tries so far.

The Jeff Mullins-trained #7 Legend of My Own lost five lengths on the turn in his last when he got shuffled back, but still came on to run a 76 Beyer.

I am betting $600 on #7 Legend of My Own at 5/2 or more and $1,000 on whoever is the longer price between #8 Major Smoke and #9 Draft Choice.

Race 1 Del Mar -- MDN 25K -- 7Fs -- 3+

Contenders--morning line

#3 Son of Dionisi--4/1
#4 Sin City Glow--9/2
#9 Russian Liquor--7/2
#7 Athenry--5/2

If #4 Sin City Glow can run back to its April 30 route, three races back, he can win. The best speed in the race is #9 Russian Liquor, who also has shown good stamina. A great angle play for layoff horses belongs to #3 Son of Dionisi. Horses like him are 21/68 or 31 percent and bettors make $1.80 for every dollar bet.

Finally, Athenry looks OK, but I prefer the others especially if Athenry is favored.

My bets here are $1,000 to win on #3 Son of Dionisi and $600 on #9 Russian Liquor, both at 2/1 or more.

Results Race 5 Del Mar -- no action

Selected #5 Absolutely Smitten and #6 Shesalittlepistol and they finished first and second, but I couldn't bet either of them because they did not have the proper odds. When you don't win it doesn't mean that you lose, but it feels that way today.

Results

6 Shesalittlepistol----------$11.80 $6.00 $4.40
5 Absolutely Smitten----------------$5.60 $4.40
9 Dumaani Came Home-----------------------$6.00

Post time odds

1 Warren's Cookie 4.00
2 Best of Wishes 8.10
3 Dice Afare 2.50
4 Wantha 43.80
5 Absolutely Smitten 4.50
6 Shesalittlepistol 4.90
7 Continental Dancer 47.30
8 It's Time to Shine 6.10
9 Dumaani Came Home 14.90

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Race 5 Del Mar -- MDN 25K - 6F - 3+

Contenders--morning line


#1 Warren's Cookie--5/1
#2 Best of Wishes--9/2
#3 Dice Afare--3/1
#5 Absolutely Smitten--7/2
#6 Shesalittlepistol--4/1
#8 It's Time to Shine--8/1

The speed of the race looks like #5 Absolutely Smitten with #3 Dice Afare a length or two slower, but I would only bet #5 at 5/1 or more.

Just outside of her, #6 Shesalittlepistol is running her third race back from a long layoff and this angle is good as long as she is 2/1 to 7/2. The second timers #2 Best of Wishes and #8 It's Time to Shine, could be anything and are better bets if they are getting some action. From the #3 post, Dice Afare has the best jockey and trainer Vladimr Cerin does well with older maiden claimers.

My bets for this race are $200 to win on Absolutely Smitten at 5/1 or more; $300 on #6 Shesalittlepistol at 2/1 to 7/2.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Results Race 5 Del Mar -- lost $150

Second-time starter #1 Miguel's Mascot hugged the rail while pressing the pace and ran away from the field. On the far turn, #12 Tactful made a bold move that he couldn't sustain and earlier in the race #10 Rockin Zola showed good speed.

Only one of my potential wagers went off at bettable post time odds.I Wanna Get Away, #11, needed to be at least 10/1 but was only 7/1 while I needed 5/2 on #12 Tactful, who was the 2/1 favorite.

For the race, I ended up losing $150 on #5 Highway Sixty Six.

Results

1 Miguel's Mascot---------$8.40 $4.40 $3.00
6 Pinstripe Kid----------------$10.20 $5.20
12 Tactful----------------------------$3.00

Post Time Odds

1 Miguel's Mascot 3.20
3 Donthaveatizzy 12.00
4 The Unusual One 6.60
5 High Way Sixty Six 8.50
6 Pinstripe Kid 13.30
7 Fil's Regent 11.70
10 Rockin Zola 17.00
11 I Wanna Getaway 7.60
12 Tactful 2.10
SCR - Mendota Bay
SCR - Papoose La Moose
SCR - All Saint

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Race 5 - Del Mar -- MSW -- 5.5fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#2 All Saint--20/1
#3 Donthaveatizzy--8/1
#5 High Way Sixty Six--8/1
#11 I Wanna Getaway--12/1
#12 Tactful--4/1

Four of the horses in this race ran together on July 2 and #5 High Way Sixty Six flashed the best speed on that day. Since nobody else distinguished themselves, I'll bet #5 at 5/1 or more.

The first-time starters in this race, of which there are five, don't jump off the page, but one of them might win. All Saint, #2, has some good workouts and is worth a small bet at 7/2 to 19/1, but he's 20/1 on the morning line. The Hector Palma-trained #3 Donthaveatizzy is OK at 10/1 to 19/1, but #10 Rockin Zola looks like his odds will be out of the 20/1 range. That brings me to #11 I Wanna Getaway, who looks like an excellent bet today. Tommy Town Thoroughbreds, the owners, are 5/33 or 15 percent with first time starters and a win bet on all would have netted $1.80 for every dollar bet. Today's rider Enriquez has won on four of them with prices paying 13/1, 16/1, 5/2 and 15/1.

Finally, Harris Farms-owned #12 Tactful will be running first time out for trainer Carla Gaines. He has Garrett Gomez, who I have at 7/30-23 percent-1.48 on first timers between 2/1 and less than 10/1. All 14 of Gaines first timers have been bet to less than 10/1, but only one of them won, however four finished second.

On the site, I will bet $150 on #5 High Way Sixty Six at 5/1 or more, $200 on #11 I Wanna Getaway at 10/1 or more, but only $50 on him if he drifts to 20/1 or greater. Also, I'll take $200 on #12 Tactful at 5/2 or better.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Getting ready for Del Mar

The Southern California circuit moves from Los Angeles to San Diego on July 16 and until then I will be catching up on record keeping. Therefore, I won't be handicapping any races, but I'll be back for opening day at Del Mar.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Results Race 11 Hollywood -- lost $200

The #2 Hopehopehope won on her second start off a long layoff, but her price was a little out of the odds zone so I didn't bet her. I ended up with $200 to win on #5 Cheryl's Surprise who made a middle move before flattening out.

Total bet--$200
Total net--($200)
Monthly bankroll--($1,400)
Current bankroll--$50,300

Results

2 Hopehopehope-------$21.80 $8.40 $5.60
8 Love to Siphon-----------$12.80 $5.20
9 Surprises Welcomed--------------$3.00

Post Time Odds

1 Alley Theater 3.20
2 Hopehopehope 9.90
3 Usk Melody 23.50
4 Kiamika 59.40
5 Cheryl's Surprise 5.40
6 Dawn Star Rising 7.80
8 Love to Siphon 10.90
9 Surprises Welcomed 1.80
10 Shake It Off 9.20
SCR - Wicked Delight

Results Race 6 Hollywood -- lost $600

Kept waiting for a big run to come from #4 Crash Landing, but it never happened. He went off at a good price and was in the perfect position the whole way, sitting behind four dueling leaders. First-time starter Hannahs Classy Boy led the whole way on the rail. I bet $500 on #4 and another $100 on #10.

Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly bankroll--($1,200)
Total bankroll--$50,500

Results

1 Hannahs Classy Boy------$10.00 $5.40 $3.80
8 One Chin Again---------------- $5.60 $3.60
10 Ribald------------------------------$3.00

Post Time Odds

1 Hannahs Classy Boy 4.00
2 Buck's Bro 18.40
4 Crash Landing 3.10
5 Exclusive Facts 58.50
7 Seamus 5.60
8 One Chin Again 4.70
9 Special Grey Ghost 11.90
10 Ribald 2.60
SCR - Saygoodnightgeorge
SCR - Everynow and Then

Friday, July 4, 2008

Saturday-Race 11 Hollywood Park -MSW 3yos+ 1 1/6 miles on turf

I don't usually handicap turf races, but I do have layoff information for horses going a route on turf so I concentrate only on that specific angle.

I will be watching the tote board to see if any of these four horses are bet below 7/1: #2 Hopehopehope, #3 Usk Melody, #4 Kiamika, and #5 Cheryl's Surprise. Going by the morning line, only one of them, #5 Cheryl's Surprise, looks like a possible bet. But if any of them fall between 5/2 and 7/1 then I will wager $200 to win on those horses.

Saturday-Race 6 Hollywood Park - MSW, 3+ - 6Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#4 Crash Landing--5/2
#10 Ribald--7/2

This ten-horse race has six first-time starters, but two of the experienced horses had tough trips recently and one or the other will probably win today. Crash Landing, #4, was checked sharply by the jockey at the break to lose five lengths on June 8, but still ran a 78. At 6 furlongs, a five length loss is equal to 12 Beyer points, so Crash Landing could run a 90 or better, which would win most of these races, considering the average winning Beyer Speed Figure is 86 for these horses. Also, the connections are switching to jockey Bejarano.

Trained by Art Sherman, #10 Ribald, also lost five lengths at the start in a May 9 race, but ran an 81. He was bet to 6/5 in his next race, but the jockey took him four paths wide the whole way while running a 76. Today, I believe he can also run in the low 90s off his best.

Because these two horses are strong, one of the first timers will have to run huge to beat them and I'm betting that they don't. The #8 One Chin Again finished third in the $250,000 Snow Chief Stakes, but that was a route race and he has never run better than a 76 Beyer in seven tries.

Because of the post, Bejarano, and the fact that I've had a lot of luck with the owner Harris Farms, I'm betting $500 on #4 Crash Landing at 2/1 or more, and $100 on #10 Ribald at 5/2 or better. If Crash Landing is less than 2/1, I'll forget about him and wager $200 on Ribald at 5/2 or better.

Results Race 2 Hollywood -- won $650

Jockey Campos hustled #3 Salah Mrs. D from the gate to the lead and she held off a threat by #2 My Sister Laureen in the stretch.

I probably should have only bet this horse at 2/1 or more, but I was rushed and didn't add any odds requirements to the wager. So much can happen in a horse race to beat you that I'll ring up this $650 victory without feeling an ounce of guilt.

Total bet--$500
Total net--$650
Monthly bankroll--($600)
Total bankroll--$51,100

Results
3 Salah Mrs. D.------$4.60 $3.00 $2.40
2 My Sister Laureen--------$4.20 $3.00
8 Promise Rose-------------------$4.40

Post time odds

1 Heavenly n' Free 18.20
2 My Sister Laureen 4.40
3 Salah Mrs. D 1.30
4 Dixie Dot Chance 25.50
5 Summersgoldengirl 12.00
8 Promise Rose 7.40
9 Improvising Gal 2.50
SCR - December Sky
SCR - Lucky Mite

Race 2 Hollywood -- MDN 40K, 3+ -- 5.5Fs

Didn't have much time to look at the horses today, although there are many good races. But one horse jumps off the page and she is #3 Salah Mrs. D. Although she hasn't run in a year, she's dropping in class, is trained by 22-percent handler Mike Mitchell and has some speed.

Other layoff horse who look like her won 27 out of 79 races or 34 percent and bettors would have won $1.79 for every $1 wagered if they bet them all. Therefore, I will take $500 to win on her.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Results Race 8 Hollywood -- lost $500

The Craig Dollase-trained first timer Lidstrom, #8, was bet down to 8/5 before he pressed the pace, took the lead at the top of the stretch and eased away. Coming in, Dollase was 4/7 when his first time starter were between 2/1 and 7/2, but 0/2 when less than 2/1. Bettors would be losing 32 cents on the dollar if they bet all 50 first time starters less than 2/1 since November 2006, as only 30 percent, or 15 of them won.

Lidstrom won today, but he was a bad bet. Although, some people would rather take a short price than have a long face, I am not one of them.

Instead I lost $100 on #7 The Unusual One, and $200 each on #3 Capital Cat and #1A Miguel's Mascot.

Total bet--$500
Total net--($500)
Monthly bankroll--($1,250)
Current bankroll--$50,450

Results

8 Lidstrom------$5.20 $3.20 $2.80
1A Miguel's Mascot----$5.40 $3.80
6 Highway Sixty Six --------$10.60

Post Time Odds

3 Capital Cat 11.80
4 Speaking 7.50
5 Tudor Blue 10.90 5
6 High Way Sixty Six 37.20
7 The Unusual One 15.00
8 Lidstrom 1.60
9 Number One Edition 11.90
1A Miguel's Mascot 5.10
10 Cookin Expresso 5.40
11 Pinstripe Kid 54.60
12 Warrens Mr Boswell 61.50
SCR - The Bat Signal
SCR - Off Kilter

Results Race 6 Hollywood -- lost $650

Unbelievably, Jack Van Berg did it again. Last week Van Berg saddled Cold Prince to a win at 9/2 in a 7F maiden claimer where he was rated with the best finishing kick. Today, #4 Our Anastacia's pace rankings looked very similar to Cold Prince's, but Jack had only won five of 116 races for the year. So certainly he couldn't win again. But his horse nailed #6 Enchanting Moment a few jumps from the wire and my $400 bet on her went down the drain. I also bet $250 on #8 Halo's Clean Sheet, who finished third.

Total bet--$650
Total net--($650)
Monthly bankroll--($750)
Current bankroll--$50,950

Results

4 Our Anastacia------$21.00 $8.20 $4.60
6 Enchanting Moment---------$3.80 $2.60
8 Halo's Clean Sheet--------------$2.80

Post Time Odds

1 Crooked Smile 8.60
2 Fool's Paradise 58.90
3 Love Song Mellody 65.80
4 Our Anastacia 9.50
5 Ata Dynaformer 40.00
6 Enchanting Moment 2.70
7 Deo Favente 4.30
8 Halo's Clean Sheet 2.50
9 Love and War 7.30
10 Padach 12.70

Results Race 3 Hollywood -- lost $100

Stormy Inferno, #6, blasted to the lead and won easily. She was only 2/1 and needed to be 5/2 for my $200 bet. First-time starters #4 Kitty Kat Queen and #10 Daniella Roth also were out of the betting zone. So the only bet I made was $100 to win on #8 Lovely Lolly.

Total bet -- $100
Total net -- ($100)
Monthly bankroll -- ($100)
Current bankroll -- $51,600

Results

6 Stormy Inferno------$6.20 $4.00 $3.00
11 Closing Steps------------$5.40 $3.80
7 Lady Schnapps-------------------$3.20

Post Time odds

3 Royal Orchid 22.30
4 Kitty Kat Queen 34.00
5 Octoberfest 9.10
6 Stormy Inferno 2.10
7 Lady Schnapps 3.90
8 Lovely Lolly 15.40
10 Daniella Roth 20.60
11 Closing Steps 4.10
12 Monica's Edge 34.80
14 Sprig of Acacia 40.30
15 Sweet Yvett 6.00
SCR - Shootinforthestarz
SCR - Yasmin's Songh
SCR - Dixie Hawks
SCR - Spark of Love

Race 8 Hollywood Park -- MSW -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#3 Capital Cat--6/1
#5 Tudor Blue--6/1
#6 High Way Sixty Six--20/1
#7 The Unusual One--15/1
#8 Lindstrom--5/2
#1a Miguel's Mascot--9/2
#10 Cookin Expresso--6/1
#11 Pinstripe Kid--20/1
#12 Warrens Mr Boswell--20/1

The speed of the horses who have run looks like #3 Capital Cat, who is shipping down from Golden Gate.

Seven first time starters are running. Craig Dollase trains #8 Lidstrom and he is 4/7 with first timers between 2/1 and 7/2.

I will bet $100 on these horses if they are 10/1 to 19/1 -- #7 The Unusual One and #10 Cookin Expresso, and $200 to win on #1 Miguel's Mascot and #3 Capital Cat at greater than 7/2.

Race 6 Hollywood Park -- 40K, 3yo+, 6.5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#4 Our Anastacia--12/1
#6 Enchanting Moment--5/2
#7 Deo Favente--4/1
#8 Halo's Clean Sheet--7/2

Horses who come from a bit off the pace usually do well in this type of race. Enchanting Moment, #6, is dropping from maiden special weight and has the right running style to win. Also, early speed horse #8 Halo's Clean Sheet may get an easy lead and appears to have good stamina.

Second-time starter #7 Deo Favente didn't run too well in her debut and might improve dramatically, but I can't bet either her or any of the three first-time starters. Trainer Jack Van Berg sadles #4 Our Anastacia, who picked up good ground in the stretch last time and might win, but I will let that horse beat me. Van Berg won with Cold Prince, a similar horse on Thursday.

Bobby Frankel trains #9 Love and War who couldn't win a grass route race in three maiden special weight tries. If he runs big, then I lose.

Therefore, my web site bets are $400 to win on #6 Enchanting Moment and $250 to win on #8 Halo's Clean Sheet, both at 2/1 or more.

Race 3 Hollywood -- 2yos -- 40K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders -- Morning Line

#4 Kitty Kat Queen--20/1
#6 Stormy Inferno--3/1
#7 Lady Schnapps--9/2
#8 Lovely Lolly--12/1
#10 Daniella Roth--6/1
#11 Closing Steps--5/1
#14 Sprig of Acacia--12/1

Seven of 11 of these runners are making their second lifetime start and three are going for the first time. Several of these horses ran with no early speed and no rally last time. I quickly threw out #3 Royal Orchid, #5 Octoberfest and #12 Monica's Edge because they will need dramatic improvement that I can't predict.

Three fillies flashed the type of early speed last time that can get them to the lead today. Stormy Inferno, #6, might be the quickest as that filly was four wide on the turn while showing speed versus maiden special weights. Also, #14 Sprig of Acacia is expected to be fast early and #7 Lady Schnapps won't be far behind.

Trainer John Sadler has #11 Closing Steps who was 70/1 last time and doesn't look like much in the racing form. But she's dropping from maiden special weight and will likely win the race if the first timers don't run and the speed is weak.

Of the first-time starters, #8 Lovely Lolly is owned by Meadowbrook Farms, which has won with three of their last 10 first timers. That horse and the other firsters -- #4Kitty Kat Queen and #10 Daniella Roth -- are decent bets only at 10/1 to 19/1.

On the site, I will bet $200 on #6 Stormy Inferno at 5/2 or more, and $100 to win on #4 Kitty Kat Queen, #8 Lovely Lolly and #10 Daniella Roth, only between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1.

If the first timers do not fall into the odds range and I can't bet them, then I will also bet $200 on #11 Closing Steps at 9/2 or more.

Monday, June 30, 2008

Results Race 9 Hollywood -- won $2,580

At the top of the stretch, #7 S.S. Stone was being squeezed between #4 Say It Again and #10 Del Conte, but jockey Rafael Bejarano found space and rallied up the rail to nail #12 Speight the Halo. I bet $200 on S.S. Stone at 13/1 and because #6 Street Hero went off at less than 7/2, I had no wager on him. I also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather at 6/1.

Total bet--$400
Total net--$2,580
Monthly bankroll--$1,700
Total bankroll--$51,700

Results

7 S.S. Stone--------$29.80 $10.80 $5.40
12 Speight the Halo---------$6.80 $5.40
6 Street Hero---------------------$5.00

Post time odds

1 Massone--2.70
3 Freedom Ride--41.80
4 Say It Again--67.40
5 Genki--40.30
6 Street Hero--3.30
7 S. S. Stone--13.90
9 Loyal Son--6.80
10 Del Conte--6.30
11 Nochangenweather--6.60
12 Speight the Halo--5.00
SCR - Captain Steel
SCR - Day With Desi

Results Race 6 Hollywood -- won $1,200

Dropping into maiden claiming for the first time, #5 Ace High Hand showed his class by going to the lead early and never giving it up. I bet $500 on him at 5/2 and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry at 18/1. Another one of my picks, #7 Rare Chant, was scratched.

Total bet--$550
Total net--$1,200
Monthly Bankroll--($880)
Current Bankroll--$49,120

Results

5 Ace High Hand---$7.00 $4.20 $3.00
3 Lunch Time------------$13.40 $5.80
1 Bigum------------------------$3.00

Post time odds

1 Bigum--2.00
2 Larrylarrylarry--18.20
3 Lunch Time--15.40
4 Gold Star Status--27.40
5 Ace High Hand--2.50
6 Officer M. D.--11.30
8 Eminent Honor--73.20
9 Anatolian Gold--5.00
10 Geauxforthedeaux--5.10
SCR - Rare Chant

Results Race 4 Hollywood -- lost $700

None of the first time starters ran early with Stormy Game so he breezed to an easy lead and had plenty left in the tank for the stretch. I lost $400 on #7 Warrington at 7/2 and $300 on #2 Son of Dionisi at 4/1.

Total bet--$700
Total net--($700)
Monthly bankroll--($2,080)
Total bankroll--$47,920

Results

8 Stormy Game----$6.80 $3.80 $2.80
4 Warren's Moonkross---$3.00 $2.10
7 Warrington-----------------$2.60

Post time odds

2 Son of Dionisi--4.00
3 Sur Brio--20.30
4 Warren's Moonkross--2.00
5 Highly Unusual--38.20
6 Bay Zing--13.70
7 Warrington--3.50
8 Stormy Game--2.40
SCR - Mort Robbins

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Race 9 Hollywood -- MSW -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#1 Massone--9/2
#6 Street Hero--12/1
#7 S.S. Stone--6/1
#9 Loyal Son--10/1
#10 Del Conte--8/1
#11 Nochangenweather--5/1
#12 Speight the Halo--4/1

The early speed in here is #11 Nochangenweather who led for the first half of his last race before tiring to lose by 3. The owners paid $400,000 for this colt who was bet to 7/2 versus nine others in his debut and 4/1 also in a field of 10 in his second race. Should have the early lead, which is important in these races and 5/1 would be a good price. The Ron McAnally-trained Massone, #1, looked strong closing well once he got untracked in his debut.

Second-time starters trained by Richard Matlow and Bob Baffert always have to be considered. They are sending out #9 Loyal Son and #10 Del Conte respectively and either could dramatically improve to win this race.

Of the first timers running, the angles supporting #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone are stronger than those backing #5 Genki and #12 Speight the Halo. Any of them would be OK from 10/1 to 19/1, but I would bet much less on numbers 5 and 12.

On the site, I will bet $200 to win on numbers #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone at 7/2 to 19/1. I will also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather if he's 5/1 or more. If not, then I'll bet $100 on #9 Loyal Son and $100 on #10 Del Conte, provided they are each 8/1 or greater.

Race 6 Hollywood Park -- MDN $40K -- 7Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#1 Bigum--7/2
#2 Larrylarrylarry--20/1
#5 Ace High Hand--5/2
#7 Rare Chant--10/1

Although coming out of a route race, #7 Rare Chant is the dominant speed. Trained by Rafael Becerra, he's running his fourth race back from a long layoff and has been showing speed in routes on both the main track and grass course. He looks like he could win at a good price.

Both #1 Bigum and #5 Ace High Hand have the right profile for this race. Ace High Hand ran six previous times in Maiden Special Weight races where he was bet to 3/1 or less five times. In his last race, jockey Mike Smith breezed him in the stretch while running a 71 so you can throw that race out. It's his third race back from a long layoff, so Ace High Hand might be sitting on a big one.

Ridden by Garrett Gomez, #1 Bigum is taking his 18th shot at maidens. However, in his last nine races he's run Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to high seventies and ran an 81 in his last.

The Jerry Fanning-trained Larrylarrylarry, #2, could surprise as it looked like the jockey merely breezed him in his debut after being bet to 7/1 and working out well leading up to the race. At 20/1, he might be worth a few bucks.

I will bet $500 on Ace High Hand at 2/1 or more. But if he's bet to 9/5 or less I'll forget Ace High Hand and put $300 on Bigum instead at 5/2 or higher. Also, I'm putting $250 on #7 Rare Chant and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry.

Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 40K -- 6.5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#2 Son of Dionisi--4/1
#4 Warren's Moonkross--3/1
#7 Warrington--5/1
#8 Stormy Game--5/2

Unless one of the three first-time starters runs with #8 Stormy Game, he figures to get an easy lead without serious pressure developing until they reach the half mile. That's when #2 Son of Dionisi and #7 Warrington should be making their moves. In the stretch, #4 Warren's Moonkross has the best late run.

On June 8, #2 Son of Dionisi made a decent move on the turn while four paths wide. On that day, trainer Gary Mandella was brining him off a 16-month layoff so he probably wasn't at his best. This horse has promise because he ran an 81 Beyer Speed Figures in his debut, which is the best in this field.

On May 9, #7 Warrington showed decent early speed while running with a field of Maiden Special Weights, then was not asked in the stretch while running a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. I think he can run the 82 necessary to win this race.

Finally, #4 Warren's Moonkross was catching the leaders in the stretch last time when he lost by 3 lengths.

On the site, I will play $400 to win on the #7 Warrington at 3/1 or more and $300 on whoever goes off at a longer price between #2 Son of Dionisi and #4 Warren's Moonkross.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Results Race 8 Hollywood -- lost $800

Bet an army of first timers, but none of them fired. Ten Churros only ran for half of the race in his debut, but put it all together on Thursday. I am sure owner/handicapper Bruno DeJulio keyed him in the Pick 6, which had a $700,000 carryover. I bet $200 on #5 Yoursmynanours, #6 Paradisi and #7 Grace Gryder. Also had $100 on #4 Ammarie and #9 Sagebrush Angel.

Total bet--$800
Total net--($800)
Monthly bankroll--($1380)
Bankroll--$48,620

Results

3 Ten Churros-----$6.40 $3.80 $2.60
14 O Goodday----------- $4.80 $3.00
11 Chatty LuLu----------------$2.80

Post time odds

1 Miss Reyna--26.10
2 Can Can Girl--16.90
3 Ten Churros--2.20
4 Ammarie--19.20
5 Yoursmynanours--14.50
6 Paradisi--6.80
7 Grace Gryder--18.30
9 Sagebrush Angel--19.90
11 Chatty Lulu--3.60
14 0 Goodday--3.40
SCR Soup Deeohdouble
SCR Shootinforthestarz
SCR Bajan Kitty
SCR Lovely Lolly
SCR Monica's Edge

Results Race 4 Hollywood -- lost $1,000

Wagered $650 on #5 Vanaldi and #350 on #1 Warren's Jack V., who were both beaten by late-runner #3 Cold Prince.

Total bet--$1,000
Total net--($1,000)
Monthly bankroll--($580)
Bankroll--$49,420

Results

3 Cold Prince----$11.20 $4.40 $2.80
1 Warren's Jack V.------$4.40 $3.00
5 Vanaldi---------------------$2.40

Post time odds


1 Warren's Jack V.--3.70
2 Bean Who--40.60
3 Cold Prince--4.60
4 Heywatchulookingat--32.00
5 Vanaldi--2.10
8 Black Magic--14.50
9 Deputy Prize--4.50
10 Quiet Revolution--4.70
SCR - Holy Mystery
SCR - Strong Suggestion

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Race 8 Hollywood -- MDN 40K -- 5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#1 Miss Reyna--20/1
#3 Ten Churros--2/1
#4 Ammarie--20/1
#5 Yoursmyunanours--12/1
#6 Paradisi--8/1
#7 Grace Gryder--10/1
#9 Sagebrush Angel--10/1
#11 Chatty LuLu--6/1
#14 Goodday--10/1

Of the ten horses entering the gate, seven are running for the first time. Several contenders are listed because in a race like this I use betting ranges to determine whether to wager or not on a particular first time starter. If the horse drifts past 20/1, I never bet. So at post time, only a handful of horses will be bettable.

Fillies first timers who are betting possibilities between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1 include #1 Miss Reyna, #4 Ammarie, #7 Grace Gryder, #9 Sagebrush Angel and #14 Goodday. At odds of 3/1 to 19/1, #5 Yoursmynanours is a bet and #6 Paradisi.

Of the horse who have run, second-time starter #3 Ten Churros showed speed in his last but the jockey merely jogged him in the stretch. Owned by workout analyst Bruno De Julio and trained by Jeff Mullins, this one could win at a short price, but I would not bet at less than 3/1.

For the site, since there are so many options here and decisions must be made at post time, I will bet $200 to win on #'s 5, 6, 7 and $100 to win on #'s 1, 4 and 9 provided they fall into the odds ranges.

Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 25K - 7Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#1 Warren's Jack V.--5/1
#5 Vanaldi--5/2

Median winning Beyer Speed Figure - 74

Both of these horses have shown speed in some races and in others they have run from off the pace with staying power.

In this type of race, horses from off the pace do well unless there is dominant speed in the race. The only horse I can see going wire to wire is #5 Vanaldi. He did not get a chance to run in his last as jockey Michael Baze had him restrained during the first part of the race and he was blocked behind horses throughout the whole stretch run. Draw a line through that one on your racing form. Today, trainer Mike Puype switched to leading rider Rafael Bejarano.

One of the first time starters might surprise, but I cannot bet them. Either #1 Warren's Jack V. or #5 Vanaldi should have the late kick necessary to win, so I will bet them both at 2/1 or more.

On the website, my bets are $650 to win on #5 Vanaldi and $350 to win on #1 Warren's Jack V, both only at 2/1 or more.

Results Race 8 Hollywood -- won $420

Betting Results -- wagered $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby, $100 win on #6 Susan's Wildcat, $50 win on #6 Veranda Cafe and $50 win on #8 Evita Argentina.

Total bet--$600
Total collected--$1,020
Net win--$420
Monthly net--$420
Bankroll -- $50,420


8 Evita Argentina 40.80 15.60 7.40
7 Candilejas 4.00 2.80
1 Lippy Rules 3.00

Post Time odds

1 Lippy Rules 2.20
2 Winningdancer 46.50
3 Mad for Candy 64.10
4 Veranda Cafe 6.60
5 Sorry Baby 6.20
6 Susan's Wildcat 15.60
7 Candilejas 2.20
8 Evita Argentina 19.40
10 Brewha Baby 5.60
SCR - Stormy Gigi
SCR - Stardom Bound

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Race 8 Hollywood MSW -- 2yo -- 5Fs

Contenders------Morning Line

#1 Lippy Rules--3/1
#2 Winning Dancer--20/1
#3 Mad For Candy--20/1
#4 Veranda Cafe--6/1
#5 Sorry Baby----8/1
#6 Susan's Wildcat--15/1
#7 Candilejas--7/2
#8 Evita Argentina--15/1
#10 Brewha Baby--4/1

I am keeping an open mind and playing the odds board as seven of nine of these horses are first-time starters. Lippy Rules got the lead in her first race, but is sure to be an underlay with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure staring everybody in the face. Trainer Jeff Mullins sadles #7 Candilejas who hopped at the beginning of her only start then went 5-wide before finishing second in a 10-horse field at Keeneland. She also figures to be bet too low.


However, Bob Baffert's #5 Sorry Baby, a first-time starter, has strong angles going for it, especially from 7/2 to 9/1. I will spilt my bet between win and place at 10/1 or more. Also, #6 Susan's Wildcat is the type of horse that is a good bet between 7/2 and 19/1.

Listed with odds rangers are other wagering possibilities, which I would bet less on: #2 Winning Dancer at 10/1-19/1, #3 Mad for Candy at 10/1-19/1, #4 Veranda Cafe at 7/2-15/1, #8 Evita Argentina at 7/2 to 19/1 and #10 Brewha Baby at 7/2 to 19/1.

On the website, I will bet $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby if she stays below 10/1, but if she drifts above then $100 win and $100 place. Also, I will bet $100 to win on #6 Susan's Wildcat if she's 7/2 to 19/1. Of these horses, #4, #8, #10, I will bet $50 to win on the two longest prices that are less than 20/1.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Results Race 9 Hollywood

9 Wendoffer 6.80 4.20 3.00
8 Victory Dancer 7.40 4.80
10 Steal My Charm 11.00

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Race 9 -- Hollywood -- MSW -- 5Fs

Contenders

#2 Tammy's Luck
#4 Mischabel
#7 Chilliwack
#8 Victory Dancer
#9 Wendoffer

Many of these 2-year-old sprints are won by the horse who gets the early lead. On May 21, Mischabel and Wendoffer dueled with Mischabel caving in at the top of the stretch. Either of the two look like they will be ahead after a quarter mile, but Chilliwack could take over after a half mile.

Since none of those three have dominant speed, a good bet is #8 Victory Dancer. The Bob Baffert-trained filly has been working out well and records show that Bob is an excellent play with this type of horse. The Richard Matlow first timer #2 Tammy's Luck also has been strong in the morning and is an OK bet at 7/2 or better.

My plan is to play #8 Victory Dancer at 5/2 or more, but to reduce my bet if she is 10/1 or better. Depending on what Victory Dancer goes off at, I will choose a back-up horse among the remaining contenders based on their odds. I am leaning toward Tammy's Luck and Chilliwack.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Hollywood Results -- Friday, June 20

Race 2
2 Pass Me the Sugar 9.20 5.20 4.40
5 Our Storm 6.80 5.80
11 Bella Maderia 22.80

Race 4
7 Magic Mike 18.60 9.20 6.00
12 Camo 16.60 8.20
15 Maj. Trouble 6.60

Race 8
3 Freebiehadthemoves 10.80 5.20 4.00
10 My Sister Laureen 4.80 3.00
6 Shesalittlepistol 4.60

Race 8 Hollywood -- MDN25K -- 6F

Contenders

#1 Alotta Wild
#3 Freebiehadthemoves
#4 Mrs. Tiz
#6 Shesalittlepistol
#10 My Sister Laureen

Alotta Wild got slammed by another horse at the top of the stretch when she ran a 36 Beyer last time. But it didn't look like she was going to win anyway and jockey Joe Talamo is now riding layoff horse Shesalittlepistol. However, by duplicating any of her previous two races, Alotta Wild could win.

I think 5/2 would be a fair price.

I can't bet the first-time starters #2 Box Office Fever, #7 It's Time to Shine, or #11 She's Hot to Trot. But second timer Freebiehadthemoves #3 showed OK speed in her first race and the trainer's only two wins were apparently with horses running for the second time.

The odds on recent layoff horses Mrs. Tiz, #4, and Shesalittlepistol, #6, need to be between 2/1 and 10/1 before a profitable angle opens up.

The #10 My Sister Laureen has the best speed and she'd be a good bet at 5/1.

As I look at the toteboard with 16 minutes to post, Alotta Wild is being bet to 8/5 and My Sister Laureen is 3/1. The value looks like Freebiehadthemoves at 8/1, Mrs. Tiz and Shesalittlepistol, both at 6/1.

Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 25K - 7Fs

In this race, #6 Stag on the Run, the favorite looks strong, but must be 2/1 for a bet. Others who could win at at a price include second timers #13 No Thinkin Allowed and #14 Fire Scout. Also, #15 Maj. Trouble is a good bet at long odds.

Race 2 Hollywood - MDN 25K - 6Fs

The average winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is 69.

This race is wide open, but I have a few positive angles to go on.

Two horses coming off layoffs, #2 Pass Me the Sugar and #5 Our Storm, have good speed and strong angles going for them.

First time starters don't usually win these types of races, but trainer Dan Hendricks has been successful when his horses have been working out well. And #1 Stariz Mark has four good workouts on his tab.

Non contenders include numbers 3, 6, 7, 9 and 11.

Spring Catch, #8, showed speed off an 11-month layoff then came back to miss by 3/4 of a length from off the pace. Not many horses are that versatile. Finally, the far outside runner Serbiana, #12, got pinballed at the start last time and burst to the lead when she got running room. She ran a 64 and could win.

I won't consider Spring Catch if she's less than 5/2 and Serbiana must be at least 4/1 for a bet. I will definately bet #5 Our Storm and #2 Pass Me the Sugar if they are 2/1 or more. I will only bet a small amount on Stariz Mark if he is better than 8/1.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Big horse at a small price? No thank you.

Here's a good bet: Big Brown will lose.

Maybe he won't lose the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, but sometime between now and August, he will lose.

Cigar lost. Smarty Jones lost. And War Emblem lost. They all lose at one time or another.

Sometime this year, maybe in the Belmont, the Haskell or the Travers -- or it could be on Saturday -- a field of of 3-year-olds will roar down the stretch, and the racetrack crowd will become silent as people realize that Big Brown isn't running his race. That the king is being dethroned.

When it's over, horseplayers will blankly stare at each other in the same way pre-2004 Red Sox fans did after the last game of every season.

The racing crowd will look contemptuously at the jockey and trainer celebrating in the winner's circle, wondering how they could be so happy at such a depressing moment. And at the press conference that follows, the connections will practically apologize for winning and spoiling every one's day.

It's happened too many times before for me to believe that it won't happen again. Public handicappers will compare Big Brown to Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed -- in the same way young NBA players are compared to Michael Jordan.

But greatness doesn't come around much and it's always proven and never anointed.

I can hear Hank Goldberg now telling America that Big Brown ran one of the most impressive Kentucky Derby's in recent history. And that the real race in the Preakness is for second place.

But, Hank, what about the two-week layoff? What about the bad feet? What about a bounce? Don't you know how fragile horses are? How do we know he's 100 percent?

Hank might breeze through the negatives, but he'll conclude that Big Brown is just too good. And people will believe him, partly because they saw the Derby with their own eyes. They'll think 'how can a great horse like Big Brown lose to one of those other bums?' Nobody will be able to find anybody who is rooting against, or betting against Big Brown. The ones who do bet against him, aren't talking, and probably whispered their bet to the teller out of fear of being shunned by society.

It's likely that in Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the crowd will bet Big Brown like they're taking the Harlem Globetrotters over the Washington Generals. In the morning line, Big Brown is 1/2, but as group think gains momentum, the Preakness favorite might go off at 2/5 or less.

And don't get me wrong. I would like to see a Triple Crown winner as much as the next guy. However, horse racing is a betting game. Nostalgia, sentiment and misty eyes are nice, but show me how they make you money and I'll be more interested. Whatever happens, is going to happen, so why root for anything?

Big Brown is going great right now. But when a horse like him pays 25-cents on the dollar, he must win 8 of 10 races for his backers to break even. So it's practically impossible to make any decent money on Big Brown's type.

However, if Big Brown loses, the tote board will light up like a Christmas tree. Just like it did in 1996, when Dare and Go paid more than $80 as he stopped Cigar's 16-race win streak in the Pacific Classic; and in 2004, $2 tickets on Birdstone were worth more than $70 when he derailed Smarty Jones' Triple Crown dreams in the Belmont Stakes; also, not many forget the 2006 Preakness, when Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1.

And finally, back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, Sarava defeated War Emblem and paid in excess of $140.

Certainly, whoever beats Big Brown will probably pay at least $18 and could well pay a monster price. Some Preakness runners look hopeless. So I am throwing out seven of the 12 horses: Tres Borrachos, Giant Moon, Riley Tucker, Macho Again, Icabad Crane, Hey Byrn and Kentucky Bear.

Of the remaining four, not including Big Brown, I consider Gayego to be the best. In the Kentucky Derby, he had a bad break and was never in the race. But his previous race in the Arkansas Derby is only a few lengths inferior to Big Brown. In that April 12 race, Gayego stayed near the lead on a fast pace and won by 3/4 of a length. If Big Brown takes back, Gayego may get loose on a slow lead. Regardless, I think he's a good bet at 6/1 or more.

Kent Desormeaux is riding Big Brown extremely confidently and he may try to go wire to wire. Speed horses like Tres Borrachos and Giant Moon may force a fast pace, which could soften Big Brown up for late closers like Racecar Rhapsody and Stevil, which I would bet at 15/1.

Also, Yankee Bravo doesn't look like much in the racing form, but my pace ratings show that if he can stay back early, this horse is another who could come late with a furious closing kick. I'll bet at 10/1.

Of course, the most likely Preakness Stakes outcome is for Desormeaux to ride Big Brown to another victory at a tiny mutuel. And the most likely outcome for bettors consistently wagering on horses like Big Brown is a disappointing ride to the poor house.

Friday, May 9, 2008

Young horses quick, but increasingly fragile; breeding "at a crisis state" says industry expert

Every year, the Preakness Stakes not only attracts some of the best 3-year-old colts in training, but also a massive throng of enthusiastic horse-racing fans. Some come wearing button-down navy blazers and sip sparkling water in the comfortable clubhouse, while others dress in old T-shirts, guzzle Budweiser and fling Frisbees in the sunny infield, as rock-n-roll plays on.

At last year's Preakness Stakes, a record crowd of 121,263 watched as Curlin bested Kentucky Derby-winner Street Sense by a head. This year, Big Brown could be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978, and a huge crowd is expected at Pimlico to see if he can take the second jewel.

Of course, people who have never heard of Big Brown will attend for the social atmosphere, and the grizzled horseplayers will be there because they always are -- that's just what they do.

However, another group has also circled Preakness Day on its calendar. This group is just as enthusiastic as the others, yet they're not coming to Pimlico because they love horse racing, but because they hate it.

And they want it to end.

PETA is planning to picket the May 17 Preakness Stakes but, ironically, the protest might do more to pressure Thoroughbred racing into saving itself than to end the sport. People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals says that when Eight Belles shattered both ankles and died on the racetrack at the Kentucky Derby, it was a reminder that horses are being exploited and abused.

Eight Belles death came two years after 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro was injured in the Preakness. Barbaro struggled to recover for months, but was also euthanized.

PETA says horses are raced too early, the hard dirt tracks are dangerous to joints, and that jockeys whip the horses too hard.

"In pursuit of cash and industry prizes and hefty stud fees, some trainers and owners run horses too young, dose them with large quantities of drugs, order jockeys to whip them mercilessly, race horses when they're exhausted and lame, and sell them for slaughter when they can no longer turn a profit," said a release on the PETA website entitled "Drugged, whipped and run to death. A call for Congressional hearings."

On the PETA website, folks are asked click a button to add their names to a petition headed to Congress. PETA, a group which believes animals deserve to live free from suffering and exploitation, goes so far as demanding an end to horse racing. But also lists less drastic requests such as banning whips and mandating that tracks install synthetic surfaces, which are believed to be kinder to horse's bones and joints.

Industry insiders acknowledge that Thoroughbreds are much more fragile today than they were decades ago. And some experts fear that, unless breeding tendencies change, injury problems might get to the point where horses won't run much more than once a year. They point to a study which shows that, in 1960, the average racehorse in the United States made 11.3 starts a year, but today they only run 6.3 times.

"We are at a crisis state," said Churchill Downs veterinarian and equine surgeon Dr. Larry Bramlage to the the Wall Street Journal. "The soundness of the horses has completely gone out the window because we don't reward it anymore. Pretty soon we won't have any animals that can go more than one race."

Two main reasons for unsound horses are that, decades ago, breeders raced the horses they produced, so they had an interest in breeding durable runners, said columnist Andrew Beyer in the Daily Racing Form. But now breeders sell most of their racehorses to others. Also, during the last few decades, Thoroughbred racing expanded the use of medication, some of which is banned in other countries.

"They allow infirm horses to achieve success, go to stud and pass on their infirmities to the next generation," Beyer wrote.

These days, horses are bred for brilliant speed, so owners can get quick returns in 2-year-old or 3-year-old races. And one of the most prolific breeding lines is that of Native Dancer, a champion in the 1950's. Native Dancer produces horses with heavy muscling that can overwhelm the ankles and feet, said Anne Peters, the matings advisor for Three Chimneys Farm, which bred Eight Belles.

Native Dancer himself had leg problems that ended his career.

"Many of the family's descendants tend to pass on unsoundness," Peters told the Wall Street Journal.

Horse racing's problems have grown partly because it has not had an outspoken critic to pressure change, said the Humane Society's President Wayne Pacelle.

"It's time for the Thoroughbred industry to deal with its problems," said Pacelle to the Blood Horse magazine.

Racing leaders recognize that the high-profile injuries to Eight Belles and Barbaro have caused people to turn against the sport. And they seem motivated to find solutions. Greg Means of the Alpine Group, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s lobbyist in Washington, D.C., said that the horse racing industry will not ignore the concerns of special-interest groups like PETA and the Humane Society, which have millions of constituents.

“I think they have to be taken seriously in the climate that is Washington, D.C.,” Means told the Blood Horse.

Breeding and medication issues cannot be solved anytime soon, but on May 8 the Jockey Club formed a Thoroughbred Safety Committee. Seven of the club's members were chosen to review every facet of equine health -- including breeding practices, medication, the rules of racing and track surfaces. It intends to issue recommendations to be adopted by the industry that lead to horse safety.

The seven members of the committee are Stuart S. Janney III (chairman), John Barr, James G. (Jimmy) Bell, Dr. Larry Bramlage, Donald R. Dizney, Dell Hancock and Dr. Hiram C. Polk Jr. Each is a member of the Jockey Club. The committee will meet for the first time on May 14, three days before the Preakness Stakes.

“All seven of these individuals have dedicated a major part of their lives to thoroughbred breeding and racing and have shown a consistent and unwavering concern for the welfare of Thoroughbreds,” said Ogden Mills Phipps, the chairman of the Jockey Club. “We will reach out to involve others in the industry and we will do everything in our power to encourage changes that will benefit the breed in any way. We will do this in a timely manner.”

Monday, May 5, 2008

Celebrity horse Big Brown is now unbettable

Pssst. Big Brown is good.

Trainer Richard Dutrow knew it, and he told us. And told us. And told us.

But people who've been around race tracks for awhile have heard it all before. Flamboyant owners and trainers, it seems, have boldly predicted great victories for their horses since -- well -- men began training race horses.

And you can usually count on one thing: their sure thing will surely lose.

Big Brown, however, didn't lose. And what's more amazing is that the lightly-raced horse might have run better than the trainer said he would.

In the weeks of training leading up to Saturday's Kentucky Derby, Dutrow told anybody carrying a microphone, tape recorder or notebook, essentially that his horse was a lock. Then the trainer hinted that he planned to bet $100,000 of his own money.

"I feel very confident that if Big Brown breaks with the field, he will run a big race. I just haven't seen any other horse with my eyes that can beat him," Dutrow told the Daily Racing Form. "We're going to be betting on him."

In the Derby, Big Brown ran four paths wide on both turns as jockey Kent Desormeaux sat a few lengths off of the lead early. But the lost ground didn't matter because at the top of the stretch, Big Brown sprinted away from the 19 other runners, winning by 4 3/4 lengths.

"Everything went exactly the way I envisioned it would go," Dutrow told the Evansville Courier & Press afterward.

Big Brown only paid $6.80 as the favorite. But that's what happens when the trainer tips his horse to everyone in America.

As a sport, Saturday wasn't a great day for thoroughbred racing's image. The Kentucky Derby is one of the few times during the year when horse racing is celebrated by mainstream America. But filly Eight Belles, who finished a gallant second, broke down while pulling up and had to be destroyed.

Usually after the Derby, television reporters focus on the euphoric winning jockey, trainer and owners while the bed or roses is draped across the horse. But Eight Belles forced the spotlight to shine on the depressing reality of how dangerous of a game racing really is.

As horrible as it was, the post-race atmosphere could have been much worse.

Imagine for a moment that Big Brown ran poorly, or had to be scratched for whatever reason. Eight Belles would have won the race, then broke down and died. Immediately after the Derby, the announcers would have been celebrating a filly overcoming the odds to beat the colts, then a few minutes later would have been forced to tell us that she died. And if Eight Belles had been the Derby winner, her death would have hit millions of viewers much harder.

Television screens across America would have showed tears on the faces of the winning connections instead of smiles, and no horse would have been available to parade around the winners's circle wearing the bed of roses. The jubilant scene that millions of Americans have come to expect after the Derby would have been replaced by sadness and gloom.

As for future of Big Brown, the buzz now is all about him winning the Preakness and Belmont to become the first to take the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. But from a wagering perspective, he's unbettable until he loses, as his odds will be too low.

In his next few races, I'm betting against him because history shows that whoever beats Big Brown will likely pay a monster price. In the past, celebrity horses like Cigar, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Barbaro all lost to runners who paid much more than they should have. In 1996, Dare and Go was 39/1 when he beat Cigar in the Pacific Classic; Smarty Jones lost the 2004 Belmont Stakes to 36-1 shot Birdstone; in the 2006 Preakness, Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1; and back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, 70/1 shot Sarava defeated War Emblem.

These overlays are available, I believe, because horseplayers get emotional and cannot wager against these hugely popular animals. In some peoples' minds, it is un-American to do so.

Although some folks might feel foolish betting against what everybody else considers a foregone conclusion, I believe taking two or three decent-looking opponents in Big Brown's next few races is a great way to cash a huge ticket.

No question, Big Brown is undefeated and is going great right now.

But they all lose, eventually.

Friday, May 2, 2008

Kentucky Derby Strategy

Ah, the Kentucky Derby.

It's the most widely recognized race in the United States and the best betting race of the year. That's because every year the field is packed with up to 20 horses, but at least half of them don't stand a chance. They're entered by enthusiastic owners who want the "derby experience." And for many race fans, the Derby is the only horse race they play all year, so these novices bet bad horses that bump up the odds on legitimate contenders.

When handicapping the Derby, the first thing I do is throw out the runners who I don't think can win. So far it's worked well, as the only non-contender to beat me since 1996 was Giacomo a couple of years ago.

This year, Big Brown is getting all of the hype and his pace numbers look alot like Silver Charm's did when that horse won the 1997 Kentucky Derby. Along with Big Brown, Colonel John also has a good shot.

But bad things can happen on the road to the finish line in a 20-horse field, including traffic problems, bad rides, a fast pace or a slow pace. With the huge crowd on hand, many horses get spooked and just don't fire on Derby Day, so I suggest you need a minimum of 3/1 to bet Big Brown -- and you probably won't get it.

After throwing out 12 horses, I came up with six other contenders to go with Big Brown and Colonel John. They are Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Pyro, Z Humor, Monba and Gayego.

According to my pace ratings Gayego and Big Brown are the two horses with the best combination of early speed and closing kick. I'm not saying either one will be on the lead, but they might be laying anywhere from third through sixth entering the first turn before easing toward the front on the back stretch. However, horses like Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba, Z Humor, Pyro and Colonel John need to sit anywhere five to 15 lengths off the pace for their best shot.

Most Kentucky Derbies are won by horses near the lead on the far turn, so these late runners need good luck to get through the heavy traffic. As a bettor, the added risk means you must have high odds. And in a 20-horse field, there is nothing wrong with spreading the risk around by playing three separate horses to win, as it's similar to betting one horse in a seven-horse race.

At 15/1 or more I'd consider betting Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba or Z Humor. Gayego is 12/1 on the morning line, but I'd bet him at 8/1 or better. Finally, Colonel John and Pyro look about the same to me, and they'll be fighting through traffic also, so I would need at least 6/1 to bet either of those.

Some of the contenders will be bet too low and I won't be able to use them, but others will be great prices and those are the ones that I'll buy my tickets on.

And if Big Brown wins by four lengths and pays $5.80, I'll live with it.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Homework Wins

Many horseplayers look at a full field of 2-year-old maidens and, with such little information to go on, they get a headache and run straight for the aspirin bottle -- or worse yet, the whiskey bottle. Then they turn to the guy next to them and roll their eyes while asking, "Did you see the sixth race? How can you handicap that?"

They don't know where to start or what to do. They don't know which first time starters are good bets, so they vowed years ago never to play one. They wonder which of the speed horses are live and which will provide nothing more than a cheap thrill down the backstretch. When they see a second-time starter, they mentally debate the logic of betting him if his only race produced a horrendous Beyer Speed Figure.

So many times, otherwise good horseplayers do one of three things in these maiden sprint races: they bet the best Beyer number, they stab at one of the early speeds, or they take a horse in a supertrainer's barn. In any event, they likely end up with a low-priced runner and, although these bettors win their share of races, the tiny payoffs make it difficult to make money in the long run.

But I've compiled information that is not found in the Daily Racing Form, so I can tell which first and second timers are good bets, and which ones should be tossed. Also, I know which speed horses will give you the best run for your money and which ones to eliminate. Horses coming off long layoffs? No problem. I have three years worth of history and know when to bet them and at what odds.

My edge comes from specializing in maiden sprint races on the Southern California main track. I use pace ratings, speed figures, profiles, models and race replays. Also, much of my money is made by using data bases that I keep with information on first and second time starters, as well as horses coming off long layoffs. All of my bets are made in the win pool using a value-based approach.

Originally from Boston, Mass., I started playing the horses at Suffolk Downs in 1979 and in 1994 I moved to Las Vegas where I've concentrated my research on maidens on the Southern California circuit. After earning bachelor's degree in journalism/economics from UMass-Amherst in 1990, I worked as a daily newspaper reporter in Fort Dodge, IA from 1992-94 and in San Diego, Calif. from 1995-96. I've been toiling in the Las Vegas race & sports books industry since 1996 and my horse racing influences are Andrew Beyer, Tom Brohamer and Barry Meadow.

On this blog, I plan to analyze Southern California maiden sprint races, the Triple Crown series and the Breeders' Cup -- recommending which horses are contenders and at what price to bet them at in the win pool. I will start on May 3, Kentucky Derby Day.