Contenders--morning line
#1 Majormotionpicture--4/1
#4 African Diamond--12/1
#6 When We Met--12/1
#7 Restless Feet--20/1
#8 Dos and Don'ts--8/1
#10 Emporor Stone--12/1
#11 Launching Pad--6/1
Breaking out of the first post, #1 Majormotionpicture is trained by Michael Machowsky, whose last seven msw first time starters included three winners. He has good workouts.
The Eoin Harty-trained African Diamond, #4, also has a shot at a price and #11 Launching Pad is a May foal, but clockers say he looks tremendous during morning workouts.
I will bet $300 on #1 Majormotion picture at 7/2 or better, $200 on #4 African Diamond at 10/1 to 19/1 and $100 on any of these at 10/1 to 19/1: #3 Walker Rd., #6 When We Met, #7 Restless Feet, #8 Dos and Don'ts, #10 Emperor Stone and #11 Launching Pad.
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Sunday, August 24, 2008
Race 2 Del Mar -- MSW -- 2 yo -- 6Fs
Contenders--morning line
#2 Internallyflawless--7/2
#4 Red White and Brew--9/2
#1 Box Office Queen--15/1
#7 Hot Summer Breeze--8/1
#11 Cantana Perez--20/1
#12 My Special Secret--20/1
Jumping off the page in this race is #2 Internallyflawless out of the Bob Baffert barn. This Giant's Causeway-filly, who could eventually be a stakes winner, worked with Midshipman on Aug. 10 and kept up with him well, according to Today's Racing Digest. Midshipman ran a 91 Beyer Speed Figure last week in winning a maiden race for 2-year-old colts and, since the average winning Beyer for fillies is only 75, Internallyflawless only needs to run about an 85 to be guaranteed to whip these.
At the right price, #11 Catana Perez and #12 My Special Secret could also be good bets.
In this race, I will bet $400 on #2 Internallyflawless at 2/1, $500 on her at 5/2 or 3/1, and $600 at 7/2 or greater. Also, I will wager $150 on both #11 Catana Perez and #12 My Special Secret at less than 20/1 only; and $100 on any of these if they are between 10/1 and 19/1: #1 Box Office Queen, #6 Brooke's Fantasy, #7 Hot Summer Breeze, #10 Trixianna and #1a Vindictive Cat.
#2 Internallyflawless--7/2
#4 Red White and Brew--9/2
#1 Box Office Queen--15/1
#7 Hot Summer Breeze--8/1
#11 Cantana Perez--20/1
#12 My Special Secret--20/1
Jumping off the page in this race is #2 Internallyflawless out of the Bob Baffert barn. This Giant's Causeway-filly, who could eventually be a stakes winner, worked with Midshipman on Aug. 10 and kept up with him well, according to Today's Racing Digest. Midshipman ran a 91 Beyer Speed Figure last week in winning a maiden race for 2-year-old colts and, since the average winning Beyer for fillies is only 75, Internallyflawless only needs to run about an 85 to be guaranteed to whip these.
At the right price, #11 Catana Perez and #12 My Special Secret could also be good bets.
In this race, I will bet $400 on #2 Internallyflawless at 2/1, $500 on her at 5/2 or 3/1, and $600 at 7/2 or greater. Also, I will wager $150 on both #11 Catana Perez and #12 My Special Secret at less than 20/1 only; and $100 on any of these if they are between 10/1 and 19/1: #1 Box Office Queen, #6 Brooke's Fantasy, #7 Hot Summer Breeze, #10 Trixianna and #1a Vindictive Cat.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Results Race 6 Del Mar -- won $1,985
On the turn, #1 Street Hero, who the public bet to 4/5, made a huge move up the rail, but #9 Midshipman rallied four wide and ran him down in the stretch. The winner, a first-time starter, was 11/1 and is certainly a welcome relief for trainer Bob Baffert, who had only one win from 31 starters at the meet.
I bet $200 on Midshipman and a total of $375 on two other horses.
Total bet--$575
Total net--$1,985
Monthly win/loss--$4,045
Current bankroll--$59,055
Results
9 Midshipman------$25.60 $7.60 $5.20
1 Street Hero------------$2.80 $2.40
6 Oyster Cat-------------------$3.40
Post time odds
1 Street Hero 0.90
2 Invisible Edge 61.80
3 Launch the Bull 5.00
4 Raikkonen 18.90
5 Nochangenweather 6.50
6 Oyster Cat 5.00
7 Smokey Dehere 49.50
8 Fitzmo 22.40
9 Midshipman 11.80
SCR - Reggae Revolution
I bet $200 on Midshipman and a total of $375 on two other horses.
Total bet--$575
Total net--$1,985
Monthly win/loss--$4,045
Current bankroll--$59,055
Results
9 Midshipman------$25.60 $7.60 $5.20
1 Street Hero------------$2.80 $2.40
6 Oyster Cat-------------------$3.40
Post time odds
1 Street Hero 0.90
2 Invisible Edge 61.80
3 Launch the Bull 5.00
4 Raikkonen 18.90
5 Nochangenweather 6.50
6 Oyster Cat 5.00
7 Smokey Dehere 49.50
8 Fitzmo 22.40
9 Midshipman 11.80
SCR - Reggae Revolution
Race 6 Del Mar -- MSW -- 2 yo -- 6Fs
Contenders--morning line
#1 Street Hero--5/2
#2 Invisible Edge--20/1
#3 Launch the Bull--7/2
#4 Raikkonen--5/1
#5 Nochangenweather--8/1
#6 Oyster Cat--5/1
#7 Smokey Dehere--30/1
#8 Fitzmo--10/1
#9 Midshipman--8/1
#10 Reggae Revolution--20/1
Obvious horses in this race include #1 Street Hero and #5 Nochangenweather who ran third and fourth, separated by just a nose, on June 29. Either can win at a short price.
But seven first timers will also walk into the starting gate and a few show promise. According to clockers, #8 Fitzmo and #4 Raikkonen have been working out well and several have money-making angles going for them. For example, the trainer of #4 Raikkonen is 3 of 7 with first timers in races like this and bettors got back $4.18 for every $1 bet.
I will bet $200 on #2 Invisible Edge at 10/1 to 19/1, $175 on #4 Raikkonen at 7/2 to 19/1 and $200 on #6 Oyster Cat at 7/2 to 19/1. Also, I want $100 on #8 Fitzmo at 10/1 to 19/1, and $200 on #9 Midshipman at 7/2 to 19/1.
#1 Street Hero--5/2
#2 Invisible Edge--20/1
#3 Launch the Bull--7/2
#4 Raikkonen--5/1
#5 Nochangenweather--8/1
#6 Oyster Cat--5/1
#7 Smokey Dehere--30/1
#8 Fitzmo--10/1
#9 Midshipman--8/1
#10 Reggae Revolution--20/1
Obvious horses in this race include #1 Street Hero and #5 Nochangenweather who ran third and fourth, separated by just a nose, on June 29. Either can win at a short price.
But seven first timers will also walk into the starting gate and a few show promise. According to clockers, #8 Fitzmo and #4 Raikkonen have been working out well and several have money-making angles going for them. For example, the trainer of #4 Raikkonen is 3 of 7 with first timers in races like this and bettors got back $4.18 for every $1 bet.
I will bet $200 on #2 Invisible Edge at 10/1 to 19/1, $175 on #4 Raikkonen at 7/2 to 19/1 and $200 on #6 Oyster Cat at 7/2 to 19/1. Also, I want $100 on #8 Fitzmo at 10/1 to 19/1, and $200 on #9 Midshipman at 7/2 to 19/1.
Results Del Mar Race 8 -- lost $750
Had a five-horse set going for me in this race, but none of them could get the job done.
Total bet--$750
Total net--($750)
Monthly win/loss--$2,060
Current bankroll--$57,070
Results
5 Coastal Souvenir------$9.20 $5.00 $4.00
9 One More Week---------------$9.80 $5.80
2 Tom Quinn-------------------------$8.40
Post time odds
1 Pemba At U. T. K. 73.20
2 Tom Quinn 15.00
3 Speaking 13.20
4 Warren's Tony R. 55.20
5 Coastal Souvenir 3.60
6 Brave Justice 2.70
7 Reel Popular 66.70
8 J B Wine 3.10
9 One More Week 9.10
10 Rockin Zola 10.80
11 Thunderfrmdownundr 29.40
12 Armenian Nose 14.30
SCR - Got Alot Going
Total bet--$750
Total net--($750)
Monthly win/loss--$2,060
Current bankroll--$57,070
Results
5 Coastal Souvenir------$9.20 $5.00 $4.00
9 One More Week---------------$9.80 $5.80
2 Tom Quinn-------------------------$8.40
Post time odds
1 Pemba At U. T. K. 73.20
2 Tom Quinn 15.00
3 Speaking 13.20
4 Warren's Tony R. 55.20
5 Coastal Souvenir 3.60
6 Brave Justice 2.70
7 Reel Popular 66.70
8 J B Wine 3.10
9 One More Week 9.10
10 Rockin Zola 10.80
11 Thunderfrmdownundr 29.40
12 Armenian Nose 14.30
SCR - Got Alot Going
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Race 8 Del Mar -- MDN40K -- 5.5Fs
Contenders--morning line
#1 Pemba At U.T.K.--20/1
#2 Tom Quinn--8/1
#3 Speaking--8/1
#5 Coastal Souvenir--5/1
#6 Brave Justice--7/2
#7 Reel Popular--20/1
#8 J B Wine--9/2
#9 One More Week--10/1
#10 Rockin Zola--6/1
#11 Thunderfrmdownundr--12/1
#12 Armenian Nose--20/1
#13 Got Alot Going--4/1
Of the 13 runners entered, six of them are first-time starters. I like when the trainer is also the owner, which is the case with #7 Reel Popular. Trainer Paula Capestro is listed as 0-for-17 with first timers in the Daily Racing Form, but this horse will be a good bet from 7/2 to 19/1. According to my records, of 53 trainer-owners in this type of race, there were 10 winners and bettors got back $1.56 for every $1 wagered. Also, Rick Taylor is listed as the breeder and when he ran Golden Eagle Farm they were adept at winning first time.
More than half of these races are won by a horse on the lead at the half mile pole. Of the horses who ran, #3 Speaking shows the best early foot.
Trainer Clifford Sise has a runner owned by Martin Wygod, #9 One More Week, and those connections usually win either first time or second time out.
The average winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is 67 and #6 Brave Justice ran a 66 on July 17.
I will bet $250 to win on #9 One More Week at 5/1 or more, $200 on #7 Reel Popular at less than 20/1 -- and $50 if 20/1 or greater -- $200 on #3 Speaking at 5/1 or more, $150 on Tom Quinn at 8/1 or better, and $100 on any of these horses with post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1: #1 Pemba at U.T.K., #2 Tom Quinn, #11 Thunderfrmdownundr and #12 Armenian Nose.
#1 Pemba At U.T.K.--20/1
#2 Tom Quinn--8/1
#3 Speaking--8/1
#5 Coastal Souvenir--5/1
#6 Brave Justice--7/2
#7 Reel Popular--20/1
#8 J B Wine--9/2
#9 One More Week--10/1
#10 Rockin Zola--6/1
#11 Thunderfrmdownundr--12/1
#12 Armenian Nose--20/1
#13 Got Alot Going--4/1
Of the 13 runners entered, six of them are first-time starters. I like when the trainer is also the owner, which is the case with #7 Reel Popular. Trainer Paula Capestro is listed as 0-for-17 with first timers in the Daily Racing Form, but this horse will be a good bet from 7/2 to 19/1. According to my records, of 53 trainer-owners in this type of race, there were 10 winners and bettors got back $1.56 for every $1 wagered. Also, Rick Taylor is listed as the breeder and when he ran Golden Eagle Farm they were adept at winning first time.
More than half of these races are won by a horse on the lead at the half mile pole. Of the horses who ran, #3 Speaking shows the best early foot.
Trainer Clifford Sise has a runner owned by Martin Wygod, #9 One More Week, and those connections usually win either first time or second time out.
The average winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is 67 and #6 Brave Justice ran a 66 on July 17.
I will bet $250 to win on #9 One More Week at 5/1 or more, $200 on #7 Reel Popular at less than 20/1 -- and $50 if 20/1 or greater -- $200 on #3 Speaking at 5/1 or more, $150 on Tom Quinn at 8/1 or better, and $100 on any of these horses with post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1: #1 Pemba at U.T.K., #2 Tom Quinn, #11 Thunderfrmdownundr and #12 Armenian Nose.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Results Del Mar Race 3 -- lost $950
Second-time starter Brinson woke up and ran a great race while #1 Little Dude, for some reason, went to the lead for the first time in his life. That might have been a good strategy if the race was at 6 furlongs or less, but he should have laid off the pace a length or two at 6 1/2 furlongs. He led until 100 yards from the wire then stopped.
I ended up betting $600 on #1 Little Dude, $200 on #7 Mystification and $150 on #3 Dark Hawk.
Total bet--$950
Total net--($950)
Monthly win/loss--$2,810
Current bankroll--$57,820
Results
2 Brinson------$57.60 $18.60 $9.20
6 Son of Pegasus-------$3.60 $2.80
4 Benny's Benchmark----------$5.60
Post time odds
1 Little Dude 3.40
2 Brinson 27.80
3 Dark Hawk 8.60
4 Benny's Benchmark 8.40
5 Fast Vole 48.10
6 Son of Pegasus 1.30
7 Mystification 8.10
8 Athenry 5.20
I ended up betting $600 on #1 Little Dude, $200 on #7 Mystification and $150 on #3 Dark Hawk.
Total bet--$950
Total net--($950)
Monthly win/loss--$2,810
Current bankroll--$57,820
Results
2 Brinson------$57.60 $18.60 $9.20
6 Son of Pegasus-------$3.60 $2.80
4 Benny's Benchmark----------$5.60
Post time odds
1 Little Dude 3.40
2 Brinson 27.80
3 Dark Hawk 8.60
4 Benny's Benchmark 8.40
5 Fast Vole 48.10
6 Son of Pegasus 1.30
7 Mystification 8.10
8 Athenry 5.20
Monday, August 4, 2008
Race 3 Del Mar -- MDN32k -- 6.5FS
Contenders--morning line
#1 Little Dude--3/1
#3 Dark Hawk--8/1
#4 Benny's Benchmark--6/1
#6 Son of Pegasus--5/2
#7 Mystification--6/1
#8 Athenry--7/2
Runners #6 Son of Pegasus and #4 Benny's Benchmark have last race Beyer Speed Figures that are 72 and 70 respectively, so they will jump off the page and people should bet them to underlays. But the 63 Beyer that #1 Little Dude ran on the grass last time should keep money off him and if he runs back to the 76 he ran at 6F on April 26 then he'll be tough to beat.
Also, #7 Mystification, who is making his second lifetime start, broke slowly but came on strong at 5 1/2 furlongs on July 11. He looks like an OK bet today.
Finally, first-time starter #3 Dark Hawk is trained by Peter Eurton who is two-for-three when he sends first starters into maiden claiming sprints for older horses. One winner was 10/1 and the other was a 9/1 shot.
I will bet $600 on #1 Little Dude if he's at least 2/1. Also, if #3 Dark Hawk is between 5/1 and 15/1 I will bet $150 on him and if #7 Mystification is 5/1 or more I want $200 to win.
#1 Little Dude--3/1
#3 Dark Hawk--8/1
#4 Benny's Benchmark--6/1
#6 Son of Pegasus--5/2
#7 Mystification--6/1
#8 Athenry--7/2
Runners #6 Son of Pegasus and #4 Benny's Benchmark have last race Beyer Speed Figures that are 72 and 70 respectively, so they will jump off the page and people should bet them to underlays. But the 63 Beyer that #1 Little Dude ran on the grass last time should keep money off him and if he runs back to the 76 he ran at 6F on April 26 then he'll be tough to beat.
Also, #7 Mystification, who is making his second lifetime start, broke slowly but came on strong at 5 1/2 furlongs on July 11. He looks like an OK bet today.
Finally, first-time starter #3 Dark Hawk is trained by Peter Eurton who is two-for-three when he sends first starters into maiden claiming sprints for older horses. One winner was 10/1 and the other was a 9/1 shot.
I will bet $600 on #1 Little Dude if he's at least 2/1. Also, if #3 Dark Hawk is between 5/1 and 15/1 I will bet $150 on him and if #7 Mystification is 5/1 or more I want $200 to win.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Race 10 Del Mar -- No action
None of the four horses I was looking at went off at proper betting odds, so I didn't bet anything. However, one of them won and paid 7/5.
Results
9 Chanjo------$4.80 $3.20 $2.40
4 Red Door Drive----$7.00 $4.80
6 Union Dancer------------$3.80
Post time odds
1 Youthful Ambition 4.00
2 Probation Please 10.40
3 Tootuffforthedevil 58.40
4 Red Door Drive 8.80
5 Moambe 56.00
6 Union Dancer 5.30
7 Dancing Wildfire 13.00
8 Magna Cum Laude 11.80
9 Chanjo 1.40
10 Royal Albert 17.30
Results
9 Chanjo------$4.80 $3.20 $2.40
4 Red Door Drive----$7.00 $4.80
6 Union Dancer------------$3.80
Post time odds
1 Youthful Ambition 4.00
2 Probation Please 10.40
3 Tootuffforthedevil 58.40
4 Red Door Drive 8.80
5 Moambe 56.00
6 Union Dancer 5.30
7 Dancing Wildfire 13.00
8 Magna Cum Laude 11.80
9 Chanjo 1.40
10 Royal Albert 17.30
Results Del Mar Race 7 -- won $2,090
I ended up with seven runners going for me in this contentious 12-horse race, as many went off at odds between 5/1 and 19/1. However, I weighted the bets toward the first-time starters between 10/1 and 19/1 and fortunately the one that popped -- #3 Believe in Hope -- was one of my two $250 bets.
I also had $250 on #11 Payment Approved and $200 on #2 Launch the Bull, #6 Fiery Rebel, #8 Meteore and #12 El Chubasco. And that wasn't enough, so I had to take a $150 flier on 48-1 short Crazy Cash. After betting $1,460, I collected $3,550, which was just like betting one 3/2 shot.
Total bet--$1,460
Total net--$2,090
Monthly win/loss--$3,760
Current bankroll--$58,770
Results
3 Believe In Hope------$28.40 $13.80 $9.40
7 Gold Aly---------------------$9.40 $5.60
6 Fiery Rebel------------------------$4.00
Post time odds
2 Launch the Bull 12.40
3 Believe in Hope 13.20
4 Azooz 40.90
1 Gato Go Win 4.00
5 Crazy Cash 48.90
6 Fiery Rebel 5.90
7 Gold Aly 7.90
8 Meteore 8.90
9 Snapshot 2.70
10 Regal Coyote 51.50
11 Payment Approved 16.80
12 El Chubasco 8.90
SCR - Oyster Cat
SCR - Arashi Cat
I also had $250 on #11 Payment Approved and $200 on #2 Launch the Bull, #6 Fiery Rebel, #8 Meteore and #12 El Chubasco. And that wasn't enough, so I had to take a $150 flier on 48-1 short Crazy Cash. After betting $1,460, I collected $3,550, which was just like betting one 3/2 shot.
Total bet--$1,460
Total net--$2,090
Monthly win/loss--$3,760
Current bankroll--$58,770
Results
3 Believe In Hope------$28.40 $13.80 $9.40
7 Gold Aly---------------------$9.40 $5.60
6 Fiery Rebel------------------------$4.00
Post time odds
2 Launch the Bull 12.40
3 Believe in Hope 13.20
4 Azooz 40.90
1 Gato Go Win 4.00
5 Crazy Cash 48.90
6 Fiery Rebel 5.90
7 Gold Aly 7.90
8 Meteore 8.90
9 Snapshot 2.70
10 Regal Coyote 51.50
11 Payment Approved 16.80
12 El Chubasco 8.90
SCR - Oyster Cat
SCR - Arashi Cat
Results Del Mar race 5--lost $250
Only horse of the three possibilities who fell into the 5/2 to 7/1 odds range was #4 Dollar Mountain, who ran well but didn't have another gear for the stretch.
Total bet--$250
Total net--($250)
Monthly win/loss--$1,670
Current bankroll--$56,680
Results
5 Ginobili------$12.20 $6.20 $3.80
4 Dollar Mountain------$5.40 $3.60
3 Holy Thunder---------------$3.80
Post time odds
1 Valentine Gift 31.50
2 Benjy's Pride 39.10
3 Holy Thunder 3.90
4 Dollar Mountain 5.40
5 Ginobili 5.10
6 Must Be Joking 12.80
7 Educated Risk 11.10
8 Turn to the King 11.80 5
9 Rumba Along 1.60
Total bet--$250
Total net--($250)
Monthly win/loss--$1,670
Current bankroll--$56,680
Results
5 Ginobili------$12.20 $6.20 $3.80
4 Dollar Mountain------$5.40 $3.60
3 Holy Thunder---------------$3.80
Post time odds
1 Valentine Gift 31.50
2 Benjy's Pride 39.10
3 Holy Thunder 3.90
4 Dollar Mountain 5.40
5 Ginobili 5.10
6 Must Be Joking 12.80
7 Educated Risk 11.10
8 Turn to the King 11.80 5
9 Rumba Along 1.60
Results Race 2 Del Mar -- lost $600
Bet a total of $600 on a speed horse and two others that I considered overlays. But none of them fired.
Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly win/loss--$1,920
Current bankroll--$56,930
Results
3 Afleet's Design------$7.00 $3.40 $2.80
9 Anatolian Gold-------------$4.00 $3.00
5 Highly Unusual-------------------$3.20
Post time odds
1 Mark of a Pirate 30.10
2 Runinfromthedeputy 19.60
3 Afleet's Design J 2.50
4 Sur Brio 6.80
5 Highly Unusual 3.90
6 Royal Gold Cat 80.90
8 Phantom North 32.30
9 Anatolian Gold 2.60
10 Black Magic 23.00
11 Searing 105.00
12 Theforcebwithdixie 77.80
13 Bein Breezy 7.50
SCR - Seenosmoke
SCR - Storm Central
Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly win/loss--$1,920
Current bankroll--$56,930
Results
3 Afleet's Design------$7.00 $3.40 $2.80
9 Anatolian Gold-------------$4.00 $3.00
5 Highly Unusual-------------------$3.20
Post time odds
1 Mark of a Pirate 30.10
2 Runinfromthedeputy 19.60
3 Afleet's Design J 2.50
4 Sur Brio 6.80
5 Highly Unusual 3.90
6 Royal Gold Cat 80.90
8 Phantom North 32.30
9 Anatolian Gold 2.60
10 Black Magic 23.00
11 Searing 105.00
12 Theforcebwithdixie 77.80
13 Bein Breezy 7.50
SCR - Seenosmoke
SCR - Storm Central
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Race 10 Del Mar -- MSW -- 1 1/16 Turf
Contenders--morning line
#1 Youthful Ambition--6/1
#8 Magna Cum Laude--12/1
#9 Chanjo--2/1
#10 Royal Albert--12/1
Three of these horses are coming off recent long layoffs and #1 Youthful Ambition is owned by B. Wayne Hughes, who does well with second-time starters.
I will bet $150 on Youthful Ambition at 5/1 or more and $250 on any of these three horses at 5/2 to 7/1: #8 Magna Cum Laude, #9 Chanjo and #10 Royal Albert.
#1 Youthful Ambition--6/1
#8 Magna Cum Laude--12/1
#9 Chanjo--2/1
#10 Royal Albert--12/1
Three of these horses are coming off recent long layoffs and #1 Youthful Ambition is owned by B. Wayne Hughes, who does well with second-time starters.
I will bet $150 on Youthful Ambition at 5/1 or more and $250 on any of these three horses at 5/2 to 7/1: #8 Magna Cum Laude, #9 Chanjo and #10 Royal Albert.
Race 7 Del Mar -- MSW -- 5.5Fs
Contenders--morning line
#2 Launch the Bull--10/1
#3 Believe in Hope--12/1
#4 Azooz--20/1
#1 Gato Go Win--6/1
#5 Crazy Cash--20/1
#6 Fiery Rebel--6/1
#8 Meteore--9/2
#9 Snapshot--7/2
#10 Regal Coyote--20/1
#11 Payment Approved--15/1
#12 El Chubasco--6/1
#13 Oyster Cat--3/1
This 13-horse field has 10 first-time starters and many of them have winning profiles. Over the past few years, I found success spreading out my bets in these races and gambling that a big price shows up. The best bets in races like these have post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1, so that's what I focus on.
If any of these horses are 10/1 to 19/1, I'll bet $250 on them: #3 Believe in Hope, #8 Meteore, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat. Also, I'll bet $200 on #2 Launch the Bull, #4 Azooz and #9 Snapshot, only at 10/1 to 19/1.
If those horses don't fall into the higher odds range, then I will bet $200 on the following horses if they are 5/1 to 9/1: #2 Launch the Bull, #3 Believe in Hope, #6 Fiery Rebel, #8 Meteore, #9 Snapshot, #10 Regal Coyote, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat.
Finally, I've seen Everest Stables win at 50/1 in the past, so I want $100 on #5 Crazy Cash at 15/1 or more.
Maybe I'll lose all my bets in this race. Maybe I'll hit a 6/1 shot that won't do much more than break me even. But I'm gambling for a payoff of $22 to $38, and if that happens, then I'll do well.
#2 Launch the Bull--10/1
#3 Believe in Hope--12/1
#4 Azooz--20/1
#1 Gato Go Win--6/1
#5 Crazy Cash--20/1
#6 Fiery Rebel--6/1
#8 Meteore--9/2
#9 Snapshot--7/2
#10 Regal Coyote--20/1
#11 Payment Approved--15/1
#12 El Chubasco--6/1
#13 Oyster Cat--3/1
This 13-horse field has 10 first-time starters and many of them have winning profiles. Over the past few years, I found success spreading out my bets in these races and gambling that a big price shows up. The best bets in races like these have post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1, so that's what I focus on.
If any of these horses are 10/1 to 19/1, I'll bet $250 on them: #3 Believe in Hope, #8 Meteore, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat. Also, I'll bet $200 on #2 Launch the Bull, #4 Azooz and #9 Snapshot, only at 10/1 to 19/1.
If those horses don't fall into the higher odds range, then I will bet $200 on the following horses if they are 5/1 to 9/1: #2 Launch the Bull, #3 Believe in Hope, #6 Fiery Rebel, #8 Meteore, #9 Snapshot, #10 Regal Coyote, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat.
Finally, I've seen Everest Stables win at 50/1 in the past, so I want $100 on #5 Crazy Cash at 15/1 or more.
Maybe I'll lose all my bets in this race. Maybe I'll hit a 6/1 shot that won't do much more than break me even. But I'm gambling for a payoff of $22 to $38, and if that happens, then I'll do well.
Race 5 Del Mar -- MSW -- 1 1/16 Turf
Contenders--morning line
#4 Dollar Mountain--4/1
#7 Educated Risk--15/1
#8 Turn to the King--8/1
On any of these three horses, who have recently had long layoffs, I will bet $250 if their post time odds are 5/2 to 7/1.
#4 Dollar Mountain--4/1
#7 Educated Risk--15/1
#8 Turn to the King--8/1
On any of these three horses, who have recently had long layoffs, I will bet $250 if their post time odds are 5/2 to 7/1.
Race 2 Del Mar -- MDN25K -- 6Fs
Contenders--morning line
#1 Mark of a Pirate--20/1
#3 Afleet's Design--3/1
#5 Highly Unusual--5/1
#7 Storm Central--4/1
#8 Phantom North--20/1
#9 Anatolian Gold--9/2
Large 14-horse field should produce a good payoff in the win pool. Although #5 Highly Unusual has a big pace advantage in this race, I am keeping an open mind and will bet some of the best overlays.
I will bet $300 on #5 Highly Unusual and #7 Storm Central, both only at 3/1 or more.
Also, I'll wager $200 on #3 Afleet's Design at 7/1 or better and #9 Anatolian Gold at 5/1 or more.
I'll bet $150 to win if the post time odds on #1 Mark of a Pirate are at least 8/1 and the same amount on #8 Phantom North at 20/1 or more.
#1 Mark of a Pirate--20/1
#3 Afleet's Design--3/1
#5 Highly Unusual--5/1
#7 Storm Central--4/1
#8 Phantom North--20/1
#9 Anatolian Gold--9/2
Large 14-horse field should produce a good payoff in the win pool. Although #5 Highly Unusual has a big pace advantage in this race, I am keeping an open mind and will bet some of the best overlays.
I will bet $300 on #5 Highly Unusual and #7 Storm Central, both only at 3/1 or more.
Also, I'll wager $200 on #3 Afleet's Design at 7/1 or better and #9 Anatolian Gold at 5/1 or more.
I'll bet $150 to win if the post time odds on #1 Mark of a Pirate are at least 8/1 and the same amount on #8 Phantom North at 20/1 or more.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Results Del Mar Race 5 -- won $3,420
Coming into the race, Rafael Bejarano was three-for-three when riding first-time starters for trainer Doug O'Neill and he didn't disappoint Friday, booting home #5 Escalon at 13/1.
I bet $300 on Escalon among the five horses I backed for a total betting bill of $1,050.
Total bet--$1,050
Total net--$3,420
Monthly win/loss--$2,520
Current bankroll--$57,530
Results
5 Escalon------$29.80 $13.00 $6.20
2 Tudor Blue----------$10.20 $6.40
9 Teamwork-------------------$3.60
Post time odds
1 Johnny Be Bad 16.80
2 Tudor Blue 8.20
3 Cookin Expresso 6.70
4 All Saint 48.30
5 Escalon 13.90
6 Tap Tap I Win 11.10
7 Pinstripe Kid 1.50
8 Cold Surf 11.60
9 Teamwork 3.10
I bet $300 on Escalon among the five horses I backed for a total betting bill of $1,050.
Total bet--$1,050
Total net--$3,420
Monthly win/loss--$2,520
Current bankroll--$57,530
Results
5 Escalon------$29.80 $13.00 $6.20
2 Tudor Blue----------$10.20 $6.40
9 Teamwork-------------------$3.60
Post time odds
1 Johnny Be Bad 16.80
2 Tudor Blue 8.20
3 Cookin Expresso 6.70
4 All Saint 48.30
5 Escalon 13.90
6 Tap Tap I Win 11.10
7 Pinstripe Kid 1.50
8 Cold Surf 11.60
9 Teamwork 3.10
Results Del Mar Race 3 -- lost $900
Spread $900 over three horses, but was beaten by low-priced contender #3 The Bat Signal. The winner had run #6 Mr. Rod into the ground on July 13, and was hoping that the rival might turn the tables.
Tommy Town Thoroughbreds first-timer #1 Star Redeemer ran well at 16/1, however Bob Baffert's #2 Yonkers Joe did not.
Total bet--$900
Total net--($900)
Monthly win/loss--($900)
Current bankroll--$54,110
Results
3 The Bat Signal------$6.60 $3.80 $2.60
1 Star Redeemer-------------$13.80 $5.60
6 Beau Gris-----------------------$3.40
Post time odds
1 Star Redeemer 16.00
2 Yonkers Joe 5.70
3 The Bat Signal 2.30
5 Beau Gris 2.60
6 Mr. Rod 3.50
7 Nascar Johnny 6.80
8 Genki 17.80
SCR - African Diamond
Tommy Town Thoroughbreds first-timer #1 Star Redeemer ran well at 16/1, however Bob Baffert's #2 Yonkers Joe did not.
Total bet--$900
Total net--($900)
Monthly win/loss--($900)
Current bankroll--$54,110
Results
3 The Bat Signal------$6.60 $3.80 $2.60
1 Star Redeemer-------------$13.80 $5.60
6 Beau Gris-----------------------$3.40
Post time odds
1 Star Redeemer 16.00
2 Yonkers Joe 5.70
3 The Bat Signal 2.30
5 Beau Gris 2.60
6 Mr. Rod 3.50
7 Nascar Johnny 6.80
8 Genki 17.80
SCR - African Diamond
Race 5 Del Mar -- MSW -- 6 Fs
Contenders--morning line
#1 Johnny Be Bad--8/1
#3 Cookin Expresso--4/1
#4 All Saint--20/1
#5 Escalon--8/1
#6 Tap Tap I Win--10/1
#8 Cold Surf--8/1
#9 Teamwork12/1
I intentionally left favorites #2 Tudor Blue and #7 Pinstripe Kid off the contender's list because I think they are two horses to definately bet against. Of the six first timers, #5 Escalon looks interesting as Rafael Bejarano is 3-for-3 when riding first starters for Doug O'Neill. The colt is also an early foal that is shipping from another circuit--both good angles.
Second time starter #3 Cookin Expresso looked like the July 2 race was for practice as jockey Migliore didn't appear to be trying too hard at 5/1. Today, Garrett Gomez rides.
I will bet $300 on #5 Escalon and $200 on #1 Johnny Be Bad at 7/2 to 19/1; $150 on both #8 Cold Surf and #4 All Saint at 7/2 to 19/1; $200 on #9 Teamwork at 6/1 or better and $150 on #6 Tap Tap I Win at 10/1 to 19/1. Also, if #3 Cookin Expresso is 7/2 or more, I will bet $250 on him.
#1 Johnny Be Bad--8/1
#3 Cookin Expresso--4/1
#4 All Saint--20/1
#5 Escalon--8/1
#6 Tap Tap I Win--10/1
#8 Cold Surf--8/1
#9 Teamwork12/1
I intentionally left favorites #2 Tudor Blue and #7 Pinstripe Kid off the contender's list because I think they are two horses to definately bet against. Of the six first timers, #5 Escalon looks interesting as Rafael Bejarano is 3-for-3 when riding first starters for Doug O'Neill. The colt is also an early foal that is shipping from another circuit--both good angles.
Second time starter #3 Cookin Expresso looked like the July 2 race was for practice as jockey Migliore didn't appear to be trying too hard at 5/1. Today, Garrett Gomez rides.
I will bet $300 on #5 Escalon and $200 on #1 Johnny Be Bad at 7/2 to 19/1; $150 on both #8 Cold Surf and #4 All Saint at 7/2 to 19/1; $200 on #9 Teamwork at 6/1 or better and $150 on #6 Tap Tap I Win at 10/1 to 19/1. Also, if #3 Cookin Expresso is 7/2 or more, I will bet $250 on him.
Race 3 Del Mar -- MDN80K -- 5.5Fs
Contenders--morning line
#1 Star Redeemer--8/1
#2 Yonkers Joe--4/1
#3 The Bat Signal--3/1
#4 African Diamond--10/1
#6 Mr. Rod--7/2
On July 13, #3 The Bat Signal blasted out of the gate and dueled with #6 Mr. Rod. Both have legitimate early speed for this class and should be out in front again. Three first-time starters are in this race, with the best of them being Tommy Town Thoroughbred's #1 Star Redeemer and #2 Yonkers Joe, who is trained by Bob Baffert.
I will bet $250 on #1 Star Redeemer if 7/1 or more; $400 on #2 Yonkers Joe if less than 10/1, but only $150 if greater than 10/1; and $250 on either #3 The Bat Signal or #6 Mr. Rod, if they are 3/1 or greater. If both are 3/1 or more than I will take the longer of the two.
#1 Star Redeemer--8/1
#2 Yonkers Joe--4/1
#3 The Bat Signal--3/1
#4 African Diamond--10/1
#6 Mr. Rod--7/2
On July 13, #3 The Bat Signal blasted out of the gate and dueled with #6 Mr. Rod. Both have legitimate early speed for this class and should be out in front again. Three first-time starters are in this race, with the best of them being Tommy Town Thoroughbred's #1 Star Redeemer and #2 Yonkers Joe, who is trained by Bob Baffert.
I will bet $250 on #1 Star Redeemer if 7/1 or more; $400 on #2 Yonkers Joe if less than 10/1, but only $150 if greater than 10/1; and $250 on either #3 The Bat Signal or #6 Mr. Rod, if they are 3/1 or greater. If both are 3/1 or more than I will take the longer of the two.
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