Blog moved to www.maidenking.wordpress.com

Blog moved to www.maidenking.wordpress.com
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Friday, April 18, 2008

Homework Wins

Many horseplayers look at a full field of 2-year-old maidens and, with such little information to go on, they get a headache and run straight for the aspirin bottle -- or worse yet, the whiskey bottle. Then they turn to the guy next to them and roll their eyes while asking, "Did you see the sixth race? How can you handicap that?"

They don't know where to start or what to do. They don't know which first time starters are good bets, so they vowed years ago never to play one. They wonder which of the speed horses are live and which will provide nothing more than a cheap thrill down the backstretch. When they see a second-time starter, they mentally debate the logic of betting him if his only race produced a horrendous Beyer Speed Figure.

So many times, otherwise good horseplayers do one of three things in these maiden sprint races: they bet the best Beyer number, they stab at one of the early speeds, or they take a horse in a supertrainer's barn. In any event, they likely end up with a low-priced runner and, although these bettors win their share of races, the tiny payoffs make it difficult to make money in the long run.

But I've compiled information that is not found in the Daily Racing Form, so I can tell which first and second timers are good bets, and which ones should be tossed. Also, I know which speed horses will give you the best run for your money and which ones to eliminate. Horses coming off long layoffs? No problem. I have three years worth of history and know when to bet them and at what odds.

My edge comes from specializing in maiden sprint races on the Southern California main track. I use pace ratings, speed figures, profiles, models and race replays. Also, much of my money is made by using data bases that I keep with information on first and second time starters, as well as horses coming off long layoffs. All of my bets are made in the win pool using a value-based approach.

Originally from Boston, Mass., I started playing the horses at Suffolk Downs in 1979 and in 1994 I moved to Las Vegas where I've concentrated my research on maidens on the Southern California circuit. After earning bachelor's degree in journalism/economics from UMass-Amherst in 1990, I worked as a daily newspaper reporter in Fort Dodge, IA from 1992-94 and in San Diego, Calif. from 1995-96. I've been toiling in the Las Vegas race & sports books industry since 1996 and my horse racing influences are Andrew Beyer, Tom Brohamer and Barry Meadow.

On this blog, I plan to analyze Southern California maiden sprint races, the Triple Crown series and the Breeders' Cup -- recommending which horses are contenders and at what price to bet them at in the win pool. I will start on May 3, Kentucky Derby Day.