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Thursday, August 7, 2008

Race 8 Del Mar -- MDN40K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Pemba At U.T.K.--20/1
#2 Tom Quinn--8/1
#3 Speaking--8/1
#5 Coastal Souvenir--5/1
#6 Brave Justice--7/2
#7 Reel Popular--20/1
#8 J B Wine--9/2
#9 One More Week--10/1
#10 Rockin Zola--6/1
#11 Thunderfrmdownundr--12/1
#12 Armenian Nose--20/1
#13 Got Alot Going--4/1

Of the 13 runners entered, six of them are first-time starters. I like when the trainer is also the owner, which is the case with #7 Reel Popular. Trainer Paula Capestro is listed as 0-for-17 with first timers in the Daily Racing Form, but this horse will be a good bet from 7/2 to 19/1. According to my records, of 53 trainer-owners in this type of race, there were 10 winners and bettors got back $1.56 for every $1 wagered. Also, Rick Taylor is listed as the breeder and when he ran Golden Eagle Farm they were adept at winning first time.

More than half of these races are won by a horse on the lead at the half mile pole. Of the horses who ran, #3 Speaking shows the best early foot.

Trainer Clifford Sise has a runner owned by Martin Wygod, #9 One More Week, and those connections usually win either first time or second time out.

The average winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is 67 and #6 Brave Justice ran a 66 on July 17.

I will bet $250 to win on #9 One More Week at 5/1 or more, $200 on #7 Reel Popular at less than 20/1 -- and $50 if 20/1 or greater -- $200 on #3 Speaking at 5/1 or more, $150 on Tom Quinn at 8/1 or better, and $100 on any of these horses with post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1: #1 Pemba at U.T.K., #2 Tom Quinn, #11 Thunderfrmdownundr and #12 Armenian Nose.

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