Contenders--morning line
#3 Son of Dionisi--4/1
#4 Sin City Glow--9/2
#9 Russian Liquor--7/2
#7 Athenry--5/2
If #4 Sin City Glow can run back to its April 30 route, three races back, he can win. The best speed in the race is #9 Russian Liquor, who also has shown good stamina. A great angle play for layoff horses belongs to #3 Son of Dionisi. Horses like him are 21/68 or 31 percent and bettors make $1.80 for every dollar bet.
Finally, Athenry looks OK, but I prefer the others especially if Athenry is favored.
My bets here are $1,000 to win on #3 Son of Dionisi and $600 on #9 Russian Liquor, both at 2/1 or more.
Blog moved to www.maidenking.wordpress.com
See you there!
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Results Race 5 Del Mar -- no action
Selected #5 Absolutely Smitten and #6 Shesalittlepistol and they finished first and second, but I couldn't bet either of them because they did not have the proper odds. When you don't win it doesn't mean that you lose, but it feels that way today.
Results
6 Shesalittlepistol----------$11.80 $6.00 $4.40
5 Absolutely Smitten----------------$5.60 $4.40
9 Dumaani Came Home-----------------------$6.00
Post time odds
1 Warren's Cookie 4.00
2 Best of Wishes 8.10
3 Dice Afare 2.50
4 Wantha 43.80
5 Absolutely Smitten 4.50
6 Shesalittlepistol 4.90
7 Continental Dancer 47.30
8 It's Time to Shine 6.10
9 Dumaani Came Home 14.90
Results
6 Shesalittlepistol----------$11.80 $6.00 $4.40
5 Absolutely Smitten----------------$5.60 $4.40
9 Dumaani Came Home-----------------------$6.00
Post time odds
1 Warren's Cookie 4.00
2 Best of Wishes 8.10
3 Dice Afare 2.50
4 Wantha 43.80
5 Absolutely Smitten 4.50
6 Shesalittlepistol 4.90
7 Continental Dancer 47.30
8 It's Time to Shine 6.10
9 Dumaani Came Home 14.90
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Race 5 Del Mar -- MDN 25K - 6F - 3+
Contenders--morning line
#1 Warren's Cookie--5/1
#2 Best of Wishes--9/2
#3 Dice Afare--3/1
#5 Absolutely Smitten--7/2
#6 Shesalittlepistol--4/1
#8 It's Time to Shine--8/1
The speed of the race looks like #5 Absolutely Smitten with #3 Dice Afare a length or two slower, but I would only bet #5 at 5/1 or more.
Just outside of her, #6 Shesalittlepistol is running her third race back from a long layoff and this angle is good as long as she is 2/1 to 7/2. The second timers #2 Best of Wishes and #8 It's Time to Shine, could be anything and are better bets if they are getting some action. From the #3 post, Dice Afare has the best jockey and trainer Vladimr Cerin does well with older maiden claimers.
My bets for this race are $200 to win on Absolutely Smitten at 5/1 or more; $300 on #6 Shesalittlepistol at 2/1 to 7/2.
#1 Warren's Cookie--5/1
#2 Best of Wishes--9/2
#3 Dice Afare--3/1
#5 Absolutely Smitten--7/2
#6 Shesalittlepistol--4/1
#8 It's Time to Shine--8/1
The speed of the race looks like #5 Absolutely Smitten with #3 Dice Afare a length or two slower, but I would only bet #5 at 5/1 or more.
Just outside of her, #6 Shesalittlepistol is running her third race back from a long layoff and this angle is good as long as she is 2/1 to 7/2. The second timers #2 Best of Wishes and #8 It's Time to Shine, could be anything and are better bets if they are getting some action. From the #3 post, Dice Afare has the best jockey and trainer Vladimr Cerin does well with older maiden claimers.
My bets for this race are $200 to win on Absolutely Smitten at 5/1 or more; $300 on #6 Shesalittlepistol at 2/1 to 7/2.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Results Race 5 Del Mar -- lost $150
Second-time starter #1 Miguel's Mascot hugged the rail while pressing the pace and ran away from the field. On the far turn, #12 Tactful made a bold move that he couldn't sustain and earlier in the race #10 Rockin Zola showed good speed.
Only one of my potential wagers went off at bettable post time odds.I Wanna Get Away, #11, needed to be at least 10/1 but was only 7/1 while I needed 5/2 on #12 Tactful, who was the 2/1 favorite.
For the race, I ended up losing $150 on #5 Highway Sixty Six.
Results
1 Miguel's Mascot---------$8.40 $4.40 $3.00
6 Pinstripe Kid----------------$10.20 $5.20
12 Tactful----------------------------$3.00
Post Time Odds
1 Miguel's Mascot 3.20
3 Donthaveatizzy 12.00
4 The Unusual One 6.60
5 High Way Sixty Six 8.50
6 Pinstripe Kid 13.30
7 Fil's Regent 11.70
10 Rockin Zola 17.00
11 I Wanna Getaway 7.60
12 Tactful 2.10
SCR - Mendota Bay
SCR - Papoose La Moose
SCR - All Saint
Only one of my potential wagers went off at bettable post time odds.I Wanna Get Away, #11, needed to be at least 10/1 but was only 7/1 while I needed 5/2 on #12 Tactful, who was the 2/1 favorite.
For the race, I ended up losing $150 on #5 Highway Sixty Six.
Results
1 Miguel's Mascot---------$8.40 $4.40 $3.00
6 Pinstripe Kid----------------$10.20 $5.20
12 Tactful----------------------------$3.00
Post Time Odds
1 Miguel's Mascot 3.20
3 Donthaveatizzy 12.00
4 The Unusual One 6.60
5 High Way Sixty Six 8.50
6 Pinstripe Kid 13.30
7 Fil's Regent 11.70
10 Rockin Zola 17.00
11 I Wanna Getaway 7.60
12 Tactful 2.10
SCR - Mendota Bay
SCR - Papoose La Moose
SCR - All Saint
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Race 5 - Del Mar -- MSW -- 5.5fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#2 All Saint--20/1
#3 Donthaveatizzy--8/1
#5 High Way Sixty Six--8/1
#11 I Wanna Getaway--12/1
#12 Tactful--4/1
Four of the horses in this race ran together on July 2 and #5 High Way Sixty Six flashed the best speed on that day. Since nobody else distinguished themselves, I'll bet #5 at 5/1 or more.
The first-time starters in this race, of which there are five, don't jump off the page, but one of them might win. All Saint, #2, has some good workouts and is worth a small bet at 7/2 to 19/1, but he's 20/1 on the morning line. The Hector Palma-trained #3 Donthaveatizzy is OK at 10/1 to 19/1, but #10 Rockin Zola looks like his odds will be out of the 20/1 range. That brings me to #11 I Wanna Getaway, who looks like an excellent bet today. Tommy Town Thoroughbreds, the owners, are 5/33 or 15 percent with first time starters and a win bet on all would have netted $1.80 for every dollar bet. Today's rider Enriquez has won on four of them with prices paying 13/1, 16/1, 5/2 and 15/1.
Finally, Harris Farms-owned #12 Tactful will be running first time out for trainer Carla Gaines. He has Garrett Gomez, who I have at 7/30-23 percent-1.48 on first timers between 2/1 and less than 10/1. All 14 of Gaines first timers have been bet to less than 10/1, but only one of them won, however four finished second.
On the site, I will bet $150 on #5 High Way Sixty Six at 5/1 or more, $200 on #11 I Wanna Getaway at 10/1 or more, but only $50 on him if he drifts to 20/1 or greater. Also, I'll take $200 on #12 Tactful at 5/2 or better.
#2 All Saint--20/1
#3 Donthaveatizzy--8/1
#5 High Way Sixty Six--8/1
#11 I Wanna Getaway--12/1
#12 Tactful--4/1
Four of the horses in this race ran together on July 2 and #5 High Way Sixty Six flashed the best speed on that day. Since nobody else distinguished themselves, I'll bet #5 at 5/1 or more.
The first-time starters in this race, of which there are five, don't jump off the page, but one of them might win. All Saint, #2, has some good workouts and is worth a small bet at 7/2 to 19/1, but he's 20/1 on the morning line. The Hector Palma-trained #3 Donthaveatizzy is OK at 10/1 to 19/1, but #10 Rockin Zola looks like his odds will be out of the 20/1 range. That brings me to #11 I Wanna Getaway, who looks like an excellent bet today. Tommy Town Thoroughbreds, the owners, are 5/33 or 15 percent with first time starters and a win bet on all would have netted $1.80 for every dollar bet. Today's rider Enriquez has won on four of them with prices paying 13/1, 16/1, 5/2 and 15/1.
Finally, Harris Farms-owned #12 Tactful will be running first time out for trainer Carla Gaines. He has Garrett Gomez, who I have at 7/30-23 percent-1.48 on first timers between 2/1 and less than 10/1. All 14 of Gaines first timers have been bet to less than 10/1, but only one of them won, however four finished second.
On the site, I will bet $150 on #5 High Way Sixty Six at 5/1 or more, $200 on #11 I Wanna Getaway at 10/1 or more, but only $50 on him if he drifts to 20/1 or greater. Also, I'll take $200 on #12 Tactful at 5/2 or better.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Getting ready for Del Mar
The Southern California circuit moves from Los Angeles to San Diego on July 16 and until then I will be catching up on record keeping. Therefore, I won't be handicapping any races, but I'll be back for opening day at Del Mar.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Results Race 11 Hollywood -- lost $200
The #2 Hopehopehope won on her second start off a long layoff, but her price was a little out of the odds zone so I didn't bet her. I ended up with $200 to win on #5 Cheryl's Surprise who made a middle move before flattening out.
Total bet--$200
Total net--($200)
Monthly bankroll--($1,400)
Current bankroll--$50,300
Results
2 Hopehopehope-------$21.80 $8.40 $5.60
8 Love to Siphon-----------$12.80 $5.20
9 Surprises Welcomed--------------$3.00
Post Time Odds
1 Alley Theater 3.20
2 Hopehopehope 9.90
3 Usk Melody 23.50
4 Kiamika 59.40
5 Cheryl's Surprise 5.40
6 Dawn Star Rising 7.80
8 Love to Siphon 10.90
9 Surprises Welcomed 1.80
10 Shake It Off 9.20
SCR - Wicked Delight
Total bet--$200
Total net--($200)
Monthly bankroll--($1,400)
Current bankroll--$50,300
Results
2 Hopehopehope-------$21.80 $8.40 $5.60
8 Love to Siphon-----------$12.80 $5.20
9 Surprises Welcomed--------------$3.00
Post Time Odds
1 Alley Theater 3.20
2 Hopehopehope 9.90
3 Usk Melody 23.50
4 Kiamika 59.40
5 Cheryl's Surprise 5.40
6 Dawn Star Rising 7.80
8 Love to Siphon 10.90
9 Surprises Welcomed 1.80
10 Shake It Off 9.20
SCR - Wicked Delight
Results Race 6 Hollywood -- lost $600
Kept waiting for a big run to come from #4 Crash Landing, but it never happened. He went off at a good price and was in the perfect position the whole way, sitting behind four dueling leaders. First-time starter Hannahs Classy Boy led the whole way on the rail. I bet $500 on #4 and another $100 on #10.
Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly bankroll--($1,200)
Total bankroll--$50,500
Results
1 Hannahs Classy Boy------$10.00 $5.40 $3.80
8 One Chin Again---------------- $5.60 $3.60
10 Ribald------------------------------$3.00
Post Time Odds
1 Hannahs Classy Boy 4.00
2 Buck's Bro 18.40
4 Crash Landing 3.10
5 Exclusive Facts 58.50
7 Seamus 5.60
8 One Chin Again 4.70
9 Special Grey Ghost 11.90
10 Ribald 2.60
SCR - Saygoodnightgeorge
SCR - Everynow and Then
Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly bankroll--($1,200)
Total bankroll--$50,500
Results
1 Hannahs Classy Boy------$10.00 $5.40 $3.80
8 One Chin Again---------------- $5.60 $3.60
10 Ribald------------------------------$3.00
Post Time Odds
1 Hannahs Classy Boy 4.00
2 Buck's Bro 18.40
4 Crash Landing 3.10
5 Exclusive Facts 58.50
7 Seamus 5.60
8 One Chin Again 4.70
9 Special Grey Ghost 11.90
10 Ribald 2.60
SCR - Saygoodnightgeorge
SCR - Everynow and Then
Friday, July 4, 2008
Saturday-Race 11 Hollywood Park -MSW 3yos+ 1 1/6 miles on turf
I don't usually handicap turf races, but I do have layoff information for horses going a route on turf so I concentrate only on that specific angle.
I will be watching the tote board to see if any of these four horses are bet below 7/1: #2 Hopehopehope, #3 Usk Melody, #4 Kiamika, and #5 Cheryl's Surprise. Going by the morning line, only one of them, #5 Cheryl's Surprise, looks like a possible bet. But if any of them fall between 5/2 and 7/1 then I will wager $200 to win on those horses.
I will be watching the tote board to see if any of these four horses are bet below 7/1: #2 Hopehopehope, #3 Usk Melody, #4 Kiamika, and #5 Cheryl's Surprise. Going by the morning line, only one of them, #5 Cheryl's Surprise, looks like a possible bet. But if any of them fall between 5/2 and 7/1 then I will wager $200 to win on those horses.
Saturday-Race 6 Hollywood Park - MSW, 3+ - 6Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#4 Crash Landing--5/2
#10 Ribald--7/2
This ten-horse race has six first-time starters, but two of the experienced horses had tough trips recently and one or the other will probably win today. Crash Landing, #4, was checked sharply by the jockey at the break to lose five lengths on June 8, but still ran a 78. At 6 furlongs, a five length loss is equal to 12 Beyer points, so Crash Landing could run a 90 or better, which would win most of these races, considering the average winning Beyer Speed Figure is 86 for these horses. Also, the connections are switching to jockey Bejarano.
Trained by Art Sherman, #10 Ribald, also lost five lengths at the start in a May 9 race, but ran an 81. He was bet to 6/5 in his next race, but the jockey took him four paths wide the whole way while running a 76. Today, I believe he can also run in the low 90s off his best.
Because these two horses are strong, one of the first timers will have to run huge to beat them and I'm betting that they don't. The #8 One Chin Again finished third in the $250,000 Snow Chief Stakes, but that was a route race and he has never run better than a 76 Beyer in seven tries.
Because of the post, Bejarano, and the fact that I've had a lot of luck with the owner Harris Farms, I'm betting $500 on #4 Crash Landing at 2/1 or more, and $100 on #10 Ribald at 5/2 or better. If Crash Landing is less than 2/1, I'll forget about him and wager $200 on Ribald at 5/2 or better.
#4 Crash Landing--5/2
#10 Ribald--7/2
This ten-horse race has six first-time starters, but two of the experienced horses had tough trips recently and one or the other will probably win today. Crash Landing, #4, was checked sharply by the jockey at the break to lose five lengths on June 8, but still ran a 78. At 6 furlongs, a five length loss is equal to 12 Beyer points, so Crash Landing could run a 90 or better, which would win most of these races, considering the average winning Beyer Speed Figure is 86 for these horses. Also, the connections are switching to jockey Bejarano.
Trained by Art Sherman, #10 Ribald, also lost five lengths at the start in a May 9 race, but ran an 81. He was bet to 6/5 in his next race, but the jockey took him four paths wide the whole way while running a 76. Today, I believe he can also run in the low 90s off his best.
Because these two horses are strong, one of the first timers will have to run huge to beat them and I'm betting that they don't. The #8 One Chin Again finished third in the $250,000 Snow Chief Stakes, but that was a route race and he has never run better than a 76 Beyer in seven tries.
Because of the post, Bejarano, and the fact that I've had a lot of luck with the owner Harris Farms, I'm betting $500 on #4 Crash Landing at 2/1 or more, and $100 on #10 Ribald at 5/2 or better. If Crash Landing is less than 2/1, I'll forget about him and wager $200 on Ribald at 5/2 or better.
Results Race 2 Hollywood -- won $650
Jockey Campos hustled #3 Salah Mrs. D from the gate to the lead and she held off a threat by #2 My Sister Laureen in the stretch.
I probably should have only bet this horse at 2/1 or more, but I was rushed and didn't add any odds requirements to the wager. So much can happen in a horse race to beat you that I'll ring up this $650 victory without feeling an ounce of guilt.
Total bet--$500
Total net--$650
Monthly bankroll--($600)
Total bankroll--$51,100
Results
3 Salah Mrs. D.------$4.60 $3.00 $2.40
2 My Sister Laureen--------$4.20 $3.00
8 Promise Rose-------------------$4.40
Post time odds
1 Heavenly n' Free 18.20
2 My Sister Laureen 4.40
3 Salah Mrs. D 1.30
4 Dixie Dot Chance 25.50
5 Summersgoldengirl 12.00
8 Promise Rose 7.40
9 Improvising Gal 2.50
SCR - December Sky
SCR - Lucky Mite
I probably should have only bet this horse at 2/1 or more, but I was rushed and didn't add any odds requirements to the wager. So much can happen in a horse race to beat you that I'll ring up this $650 victory without feeling an ounce of guilt.
Total bet--$500
Total net--$650
Monthly bankroll--($600)
Total bankroll--$51,100
Results
3 Salah Mrs. D.------$4.60 $3.00 $2.40
2 My Sister Laureen--------$4.20 $3.00
8 Promise Rose-------------------$4.40
Post time odds
1 Heavenly n' Free 18.20
2 My Sister Laureen 4.40
3 Salah Mrs. D 1.30
4 Dixie Dot Chance 25.50
5 Summersgoldengirl 12.00
8 Promise Rose 7.40
9 Improvising Gal 2.50
SCR - December Sky
SCR - Lucky Mite
Race 2 Hollywood -- MDN 40K, 3+ -- 5.5Fs
Didn't have much time to look at the horses today, although there are many good races. But one horse jumps off the page and she is #3 Salah Mrs. D. Although she hasn't run in a year, she's dropping in class, is trained by 22-percent handler Mike Mitchell and has some speed.
Other layoff horse who look like her won 27 out of 79 races or 34 percent and bettors would have won $1.79 for every $1 wagered if they bet them all. Therefore, I will take $500 to win on her.
Other layoff horse who look like her won 27 out of 79 races or 34 percent and bettors would have won $1.79 for every $1 wagered if they bet them all. Therefore, I will take $500 to win on her.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Results Race 8 Hollywood -- lost $500
The Craig Dollase-trained first timer Lidstrom, #8, was bet down to 8/5 before he pressed the pace, took the lead at the top of the stretch and eased away. Coming in, Dollase was 4/7 when his first time starter were between 2/1 and 7/2, but 0/2 when less than 2/1. Bettors would be losing 32 cents on the dollar if they bet all 50 first time starters less than 2/1 since November 2006, as only 30 percent, or 15 of them won.
Lidstrom won today, but he was a bad bet. Although, some people would rather take a short price than have a long face, I am not one of them.
Instead I lost $100 on #7 The Unusual One, and $200 each on #3 Capital Cat and #1A Miguel's Mascot.
Total bet--$500
Total net--($500)
Monthly bankroll--($1,250)
Current bankroll--$50,450
Results
8 Lidstrom------$5.20 $3.20 $2.80
1A Miguel's Mascot----$5.40 $3.80
6 Highway Sixty Six --------$10.60
Post Time Odds
3 Capital Cat 11.80
4 Speaking 7.50
5 Tudor Blue 10.90 5
6 High Way Sixty Six 37.20
7 The Unusual One 15.00
8 Lidstrom 1.60
9 Number One Edition 11.90
1A Miguel's Mascot 5.10
10 Cookin Expresso 5.40
11 Pinstripe Kid 54.60
12 Warrens Mr Boswell 61.50
SCR - The Bat Signal
SCR - Off Kilter
Lidstrom won today, but he was a bad bet. Although, some people would rather take a short price than have a long face, I am not one of them.
Instead I lost $100 on #7 The Unusual One, and $200 each on #3 Capital Cat and #1A Miguel's Mascot.
Total bet--$500
Total net--($500)
Monthly bankroll--($1,250)
Current bankroll--$50,450
Results
8 Lidstrom------$5.20 $3.20 $2.80
1A Miguel's Mascot----$5.40 $3.80
6 Highway Sixty Six --------$10.60
Post Time Odds
3 Capital Cat 11.80
4 Speaking 7.50
5 Tudor Blue 10.90 5
6 High Way Sixty Six 37.20
7 The Unusual One 15.00
8 Lidstrom 1.60
9 Number One Edition 11.90
1A Miguel's Mascot 5.10
10 Cookin Expresso 5.40
11 Pinstripe Kid 54.60
12 Warrens Mr Boswell 61.50
SCR - The Bat Signal
SCR - Off Kilter
Results Race 6 Hollywood -- lost $650
Unbelievably, Jack Van Berg did it again. Last week Van Berg saddled Cold Prince to a win at 9/2 in a 7F maiden claimer where he was rated with the best finishing kick. Today, #4 Our Anastacia's pace rankings looked very similar to Cold Prince's, but Jack had only won five of 116 races for the year. So certainly he couldn't win again. But his horse nailed #6 Enchanting Moment a few jumps from the wire and my $400 bet on her went down the drain. I also bet $250 on #8 Halo's Clean Sheet, who finished third.
Total bet--$650
Total net--($650)
Monthly bankroll--($750)
Current bankroll--$50,950
Results
4 Our Anastacia------$21.00 $8.20 $4.60
6 Enchanting Moment---------$3.80 $2.60
8 Halo's Clean Sheet--------------$2.80
Post Time Odds
1 Crooked Smile 8.60
2 Fool's Paradise 58.90
3 Love Song Mellody 65.80
4 Our Anastacia 9.50
5 Ata Dynaformer 40.00
6 Enchanting Moment 2.70
7 Deo Favente 4.30
8 Halo's Clean Sheet 2.50
9 Love and War 7.30
10 Padach 12.70
Total bet--$650
Total net--($650)
Monthly bankroll--($750)
Current bankroll--$50,950
Results
4 Our Anastacia------$21.00 $8.20 $4.60
6 Enchanting Moment---------$3.80 $2.60
8 Halo's Clean Sheet--------------$2.80
Post Time Odds
1 Crooked Smile 8.60
2 Fool's Paradise 58.90
3 Love Song Mellody 65.80
4 Our Anastacia 9.50
5 Ata Dynaformer 40.00
6 Enchanting Moment 2.70
7 Deo Favente 4.30
8 Halo's Clean Sheet 2.50
9 Love and War 7.30
10 Padach 12.70
Results Race 3 Hollywood -- lost $100
Stormy Inferno, #6, blasted to the lead and won easily. She was only 2/1 and needed to be 5/2 for my $200 bet. First-time starters #4 Kitty Kat Queen and #10 Daniella Roth also were out of the betting zone. So the only bet I made was $100 to win on #8 Lovely Lolly.
Total bet -- $100
Total net -- ($100)
Monthly bankroll -- ($100)
Current bankroll -- $51,600
Results
6 Stormy Inferno------$6.20 $4.00 $3.00
11 Closing Steps------------$5.40 $3.80
7 Lady Schnapps-------------------$3.20
Post Time odds
3 Royal Orchid 22.30
4 Kitty Kat Queen 34.00
5 Octoberfest 9.10
6 Stormy Inferno 2.10
7 Lady Schnapps 3.90
8 Lovely Lolly 15.40
10 Daniella Roth 20.60
11 Closing Steps 4.10
12 Monica's Edge 34.80
14 Sprig of Acacia 40.30
15 Sweet Yvett 6.00
SCR - Shootinforthestarz
SCR - Yasmin's Songh
SCR - Dixie Hawks
SCR - Spark of Love
Total bet -- $100
Total net -- ($100)
Monthly bankroll -- ($100)
Current bankroll -- $51,600
Results
6 Stormy Inferno------$6.20 $4.00 $3.00
11 Closing Steps------------$5.40 $3.80
7 Lady Schnapps-------------------$3.20
Post Time odds
3 Royal Orchid 22.30
4 Kitty Kat Queen 34.00
5 Octoberfest 9.10
6 Stormy Inferno 2.10
7 Lady Schnapps 3.90
8 Lovely Lolly 15.40
10 Daniella Roth 20.60
11 Closing Steps 4.10
12 Monica's Edge 34.80
14 Sprig of Acacia 40.30
15 Sweet Yvett 6.00
SCR - Shootinforthestarz
SCR - Yasmin's Songh
SCR - Dixie Hawks
SCR - Spark of Love
Race 8 Hollywood Park -- MSW -- 5.5Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#3 Capital Cat--6/1
#5 Tudor Blue--6/1
#6 High Way Sixty Six--20/1
#7 The Unusual One--15/1
#8 Lindstrom--5/2
#1a Miguel's Mascot--9/2
#10 Cookin Expresso--6/1
#11 Pinstripe Kid--20/1
#12 Warrens Mr Boswell--20/1
The speed of the horses who have run looks like #3 Capital Cat, who is shipping down from Golden Gate.
Seven first time starters are running. Craig Dollase trains #8 Lidstrom and he is 4/7 with first timers between 2/1 and 7/2.
I will bet $100 on these horses if they are 10/1 to 19/1 -- #7 The Unusual One and #10 Cookin Expresso, and $200 to win on #1 Miguel's Mascot and #3 Capital Cat at greater than 7/2.
#3 Capital Cat--6/1
#5 Tudor Blue--6/1
#6 High Way Sixty Six--20/1
#7 The Unusual One--15/1
#8 Lindstrom--5/2
#1a Miguel's Mascot--9/2
#10 Cookin Expresso--6/1
#11 Pinstripe Kid--20/1
#12 Warrens Mr Boswell--20/1
The speed of the horses who have run looks like #3 Capital Cat, who is shipping down from Golden Gate.
Seven first time starters are running. Craig Dollase trains #8 Lidstrom and he is 4/7 with first timers between 2/1 and 7/2.
I will bet $100 on these horses if they are 10/1 to 19/1 -- #7 The Unusual One and #10 Cookin Expresso, and $200 to win on #1 Miguel's Mascot and #3 Capital Cat at greater than 7/2.
Race 6 Hollywood Park -- 40K, 3yo+, 6.5Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#4 Our Anastacia--12/1
#6 Enchanting Moment--5/2
#7 Deo Favente--4/1
#8 Halo's Clean Sheet--7/2
Horses who come from a bit off the pace usually do well in this type of race. Enchanting Moment, #6, is dropping from maiden special weight and has the right running style to win. Also, early speed horse #8 Halo's Clean Sheet may get an easy lead and appears to have good stamina.
Second-time starter #7 Deo Favente didn't run too well in her debut and might improve dramatically, but I can't bet either her or any of the three first-time starters. Trainer Jack Van Berg sadles #4 Our Anastacia, who picked up good ground in the stretch last time and might win, but I will let that horse beat me. Van Berg won with Cold Prince, a similar horse on Thursday.
Bobby Frankel trains #9 Love and War who couldn't win a grass route race in three maiden special weight tries. If he runs big, then I lose.
Therefore, my web site bets are $400 to win on #6 Enchanting Moment and $250 to win on #8 Halo's Clean Sheet, both at 2/1 or more.
#4 Our Anastacia--12/1
#6 Enchanting Moment--5/2
#7 Deo Favente--4/1
#8 Halo's Clean Sheet--7/2
Horses who come from a bit off the pace usually do well in this type of race. Enchanting Moment, #6, is dropping from maiden special weight and has the right running style to win. Also, early speed horse #8 Halo's Clean Sheet may get an easy lead and appears to have good stamina.
Second-time starter #7 Deo Favente didn't run too well in her debut and might improve dramatically, but I can't bet either her or any of the three first-time starters. Trainer Jack Van Berg sadles #4 Our Anastacia, who picked up good ground in the stretch last time and might win, but I will let that horse beat me. Van Berg won with Cold Prince, a similar horse on Thursday.
Bobby Frankel trains #9 Love and War who couldn't win a grass route race in three maiden special weight tries. If he runs big, then I lose.
Therefore, my web site bets are $400 to win on #6 Enchanting Moment and $250 to win on #8 Halo's Clean Sheet, both at 2/1 or more.
Race 3 Hollywood -- 2yos -- 40K -- 5.5Fs
Contenders -- Morning Line
#4 Kitty Kat Queen--20/1
#6 Stormy Inferno--3/1
#7 Lady Schnapps--9/2
#8 Lovely Lolly--12/1
#10 Daniella Roth--6/1
#11 Closing Steps--5/1
#14 Sprig of Acacia--12/1
Seven of 11 of these runners are making their second lifetime start and three are going for the first time. Several of these horses ran with no early speed and no rally last time. I quickly threw out #3 Royal Orchid, #5 Octoberfest and #12 Monica's Edge because they will need dramatic improvement that I can't predict.
Three fillies flashed the type of early speed last time that can get them to the lead today. Stormy Inferno, #6, might be the quickest as that filly was four wide on the turn while showing speed versus maiden special weights. Also, #14 Sprig of Acacia is expected to be fast early and #7 Lady Schnapps won't be far behind.
Trainer John Sadler has #11 Closing Steps who was 70/1 last time and doesn't look like much in the racing form. But she's dropping from maiden special weight and will likely win the race if the first timers don't run and the speed is weak.
Of the first-time starters, #8 Lovely Lolly is owned by Meadowbrook Farms, which has won with three of their last 10 first timers. That horse and the other firsters -- #4Kitty Kat Queen and #10 Daniella Roth -- are decent bets only at 10/1 to 19/1.
On the site, I will bet $200 on #6 Stormy Inferno at 5/2 or more, and $100 to win on #4 Kitty Kat Queen, #8 Lovely Lolly and #10 Daniella Roth, only between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1.
If the first timers do not fall into the odds range and I can't bet them, then I will also bet $200 on #11 Closing Steps at 9/2 or more.
#4 Kitty Kat Queen--20/1
#6 Stormy Inferno--3/1
#7 Lady Schnapps--9/2
#8 Lovely Lolly--12/1
#10 Daniella Roth--6/1
#11 Closing Steps--5/1
#14 Sprig of Acacia--12/1
Seven of 11 of these runners are making their second lifetime start and three are going for the first time. Several of these horses ran with no early speed and no rally last time. I quickly threw out #3 Royal Orchid, #5 Octoberfest and #12 Monica's Edge because they will need dramatic improvement that I can't predict.
Three fillies flashed the type of early speed last time that can get them to the lead today. Stormy Inferno, #6, might be the quickest as that filly was four wide on the turn while showing speed versus maiden special weights. Also, #14 Sprig of Acacia is expected to be fast early and #7 Lady Schnapps won't be far behind.
Trainer John Sadler has #11 Closing Steps who was 70/1 last time and doesn't look like much in the racing form. But she's dropping from maiden special weight and will likely win the race if the first timers don't run and the speed is weak.
Of the first-time starters, #8 Lovely Lolly is owned by Meadowbrook Farms, which has won with three of their last 10 first timers. That horse and the other firsters -- #4Kitty Kat Queen and #10 Daniella Roth -- are decent bets only at 10/1 to 19/1.
On the site, I will bet $200 on #6 Stormy Inferno at 5/2 or more, and $100 to win on #4 Kitty Kat Queen, #8 Lovely Lolly and #10 Daniella Roth, only between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1.
If the first timers do not fall into the odds range and I can't bet them, then I will also bet $200 on #11 Closing Steps at 9/2 or more.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Results Race 9 Hollywood -- won $2,580
At the top of the stretch, #7 S.S. Stone was being squeezed between #4 Say It Again and #10 Del Conte, but jockey Rafael Bejarano found space and rallied up the rail to nail #12 Speight the Halo. I bet $200 on S.S. Stone at 13/1 and because #6 Street Hero went off at less than 7/2, I had no wager on him. I also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather at 6/1.
Total bet--$400
Total net--$2,580
Monthly bankroll--$1,700
Total bankroll--$51,700
Results
7 S.S. Stone--------$29.80 $10.80 $5.40
12 Speight the Halo---------$6.80 $5.40
6 Street Hero---------------------$5.00
Post time odds
1 Massone--2.70
3 Freedom Ride--41.80
4 Say It Again--67.40
5 Genki--40.30
6 Street Hero--3.30
7 S. S. Stone--13.90
9 Loyal Son--6.80
10 Del Conte--6.30
11 Nochangenweather--6.60
12 Speight the Halo--5.00
SCR - Captain Steel
SCR - Day With Desi
Total bet--$400
Total net--$2,580
Monthly bankroll--$1,700
Total bankroll--$51,700
Results
7 S.S. Stone--------$29.80 $10.80 $5.40
12 Speight the Halo---------$6.80 $5.40
6 Street Hero---------------------$5.00
Post time odds
1 Massone--2.70
3 Freedom Ride--41.80
4 Say It Again--67.40
5 Genki--40.30
6 Street Hero--3.30
7 S. S. Stone--13.90
9 Loyal Son--6.80
10 Del Conte--6.30
11 Nochangenweather--6.60
12 Speight the Halo--5.00
SCR - Captain Steel
SCR - Day With Desi
Results Race 6 Hollywood -- won $1,200
Dropping into maiden claiming for the first time, #5 Ace High Hand showed his class by going to the lead early and never giving it up. I bet $500 on him at 5/2 and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry at 18/1. Another one of my picks, #7 Rare Chant, was scratched.
Total bet--$550
Total net--$1,200
Monthly Bankroll--($880)
Current Bankroll--$49,120
Results
5 Ace High Hand---$7.00 $4.20 $3.00
3 Lunch Time------------$13.40 $5.80
1 Bigum------------------------$3.00
Post time odds
1 Bigum--2.00
2 Larrylarrylarry--18.20
3 Lunch Time--15.40
4 Gold Star Status--27.40
5 Ace High Hand--2.50
6 Officer M. D.--11.30
8 Eminent Honor--73.20
9 Anatolian Gold--5.00
10 Geauxforthedeaux--5.10
SCR - Rare Chant
Total bet--$550
Total net--$1,200
Monthly Bankroll--($880)
Current Bankroll--$49,120
Results
5 Ace High Hand---$7.00 $4.20 $3.00
3 Lunch Time------------$13.40 $5.80
1 Bigum------------------------$3.00
Post time odds
1 Bigum--2.00
2 Larrylarrylarry--18.20
3 Lunch Time--15.40
4 Gold Star Status--27.40
5 Ace High Hand--2.50
6 Officer M. D.--11.30
8 Eminent Honor--73.20
9 Anatolian Gold--5.00
10 Geauxforthedeaux--5.10
SCR - Rare Chant
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