Saturday-Race 6 Hollywood Park - MSW, 3+ - 6Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#4 Crash Landing--5/2
#10 Ribald--7/2

This ten-horse race has six first-time starters, but two of the experienced horses had tough trips recently and one or the other will probably win today. Crash Landing, #4, was checked sharply by the jockey at the break to lose five lengths on June 8, but still ran a 78. At 6 furlongs, a five length loss is equal to 12 Beyer points, so Crash Landing could run a 90 or better, which would win most of these races, considering the average winning Beyer Speed Figure is 86 for these horses. Also, the connections are switching to jockey Bejarano.

Trained by Art Sherman, #10 Ribald, also lost five lengths at the start in a May 9 race, but ran an 81. He was bet to 6/5 in his next race, but the jockey took him four paths wide the whole way while running a 76. Today, I believe he can also run in the low 90s off his best.

Because these two horses are strong, one of the first timers will have to run huge to beat them and I'm betting that they don't. The #8 One Chin Again finished third in the $250,000 Snow Chief Stakes, but that was a route race and he has never run better than a 76 Beyer in seven tries.

Because of the post, Bejarano, and the fact that I've had a lot of luck with the owner Harris Farms, I'm betting $500 on #4 Crash Landing at 2/1 or more, and $100 on #10 Ribald at 5/2 or better. If Crash Landing is less than 2/1, I'll forget about him and wager $200 on Ribald at 5/2 or better.