Big horse at a small price? No thank you.

Here's a good bet: Big Brown will lose.

Maybe he won't lose the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, but sometime between now and August, he will lose.

Cigar lost. Smarty Jones lost. And War Emblem lost. They all lose at one time or another.

Sometime this year, maybe in the Belmont, the Haskell or the Travers -- or it could be on Saturday -- a field of of 3-year-olds will roar down the stretch, and the racetrack crowd will become silent as people realize that Big Brown isn't running his race. That the king is being dethroned.

When it's over, horseplayers will blankly stare at each other in the same way pre-2004 Red Sox fans did after the last game of every season.

The racing crowd will look contemptuously at the jockey and trainer celebrating in the winner's circle, wondering how they could be so happy at such a depressing moment. And at the press conference that follows, the connections will practically apologize for winning and spoiling every one's day.

It's happened too many times before for me to believe that it won't happen again. Public handicappers will compare Big Brown to Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed -- in the same way young NBA players are compared to Michael Jordan.

But greatness doesn't come around much and it's always proven and never anointed.

I can hear Hank Goldberg now telling America that Big Brown ran one of the most impressive Kentucky Derby's in recent history. And that the real race in the Preakness is for second place.

But, Hank, what about the two-week layoff? What about the bad feet? What about a bounce? Don't you know how fragile horses are? How do we know he's 100 percent?

Hank might breeze through the negatives, but he'll conclude that Big Brown is just too good. And people will believe him, partly because they saw the Derby with their own eyes. They'll think 'how can a great horse like Big Brown lose to one of those other bums?' Nobody will be able to find anybody who is rooting against, or betting against Big Brown. The ones who do bet against him, aren't talking, and probably whispered their bet to the teller out of fear of being shunned by society.

It's likely that in Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the crowd will bet Big Brown like they're taking the Harlem Globetrotters over the Washington Generals. In the morning line, Big Brown is 1/2, but as group think gains momentum, the Preakness favorite might go off at 2/5 or less.

And don't get me wrong. I would like to see a Triple Crown winner as much as the next guy. However, horse racing is a betting game. Nostalgia, sentiment and misty eyes are nice, but show me how they make you money and I'll be more interested. Whatever happens, is going to happen, so why root for anything?

Big Brown is going great right now. But when a horse like him pays 25-cents on the dollar, he must win 8 of 10 races for his backers to break even. So it's practically impossible to make any decent money on Big Brown's type.

However, if Big Brown loses, the tote board will light up like a Christmas tree. Just like it did in 1996, when Dare and Go paid more than $80 as he stopped Cigar's 16-race win streak in the Pacific Classic; and in 2004, $2 tickets on Birdstone were worth more than $70 when he derailed Smarty Jones' Triple Crown dreams in the Belmont Stakes; also, not many forget the 2006 Preakness, when Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1.

And finally, back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, Sarava defeated War Emblem and paid in excess of $140.

Certainly, whoever beats Big Brown will probably pay at least $18 and could well pay a monster price. Some Preakness runners look hopeless. So I am throwing out seven of the 12 horses: Tres Borrachos, Giant Moon, Riley Tucker, Macho Again, Icabad Crane, Hey Byrn and Kentucky Bear.

Of the remaining four, not including Big Brown, I consider Gayego to be the best. In the Kentucky Derby, he had a bad break and was never in the race. But his previous race in the Arkansas Derby is only a few lengths inferior to Big Brown. In that April 12 race, Gayego stayed near the lead on a fast pace and won by 3/4 of a length. If Big Brown takes back, Gayego may get loose on a slow lead. Regardless, I think he's a good bet at 6/1 or more.

Kent Desormeaux is riding Big Brown extremely confidently and he may try to go wire to wire. Speed horses like Tres Borrachos and Giant Moon may force a fast pace, which could soften Big Brown up for late closers like Racecar Rhapsody and Stevil, which I would bet at 15/1.

Also, Yankee Bravo doesn't look like much in the racing form, but my pace ratings show that if he can stay back early, this horse is another who could come late with a furious closing kick. I'll bet at 10/1.

Of course, the most likely Preakness Stakes outcome is for Desormeaux to ride Big Brown to another victory at a tiny mutuel. And the most likely outcome for bettors consistently wagering on horses like Big Brown is a disappointing ride to the poor house.