Kentucky Derby Strategy

Ah, the Kentucky Derby.

It's the most widely recognized race in the United States and the best betting race of the year. That's because every year the field is packed with up to 20 horses, but at least half of them don't stand a chance. They're entered by enthusiastic owners who want the "derby experience." And for many race fans, the Derby is the only horse race they play all year, so these novices bet bad horses that bump up the odds on legitimate contenders.

When handicapping the Derby, the first thing I do is throw out the runners who I don't think can win. So far it's worked well, as the only non-contender to beat me since 1996 was Giacomo a couple of years ago.

This year, Big Brown is getting all of the hype and his pace numbers look alot like Silver Charm's did when that horse won the 1997 Kentucky Derby. Along with Big Brown, Colonel John also has a good shot.

But bad things can happen on the road to the finish line in a 20-horse field, including traffic problems, bad rides, a fast pace or a slow pace. With the huge crowd on hand, many horses get spooked and just don't fire on Derby Day, so I suggest you need a minimum of 3/1 to bet Big Brown -- and you probably won't get it.

After throwing out 12 horses, I came up with six other contenders to go with Big Brown and Colonel John. They are Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Pyro, Z Humor, Monba and Gayego.

According to my pace ratings Gayego and Big Brown are the two horses with the best combination of early speed and closing kick. I'm not saying either one will be on the lead, but they might be laying anywhere from third through sixth entering the first turn before easing toward the front on the back stretch. However, horses like Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba, Z Humor, Pyro and Colonel John need to sit anywhere five to 15 lengths off the pace for their best shot.

Most Kentucky Derbies are won by horses near the lead on the far turn, so these late runners need good luck to get through the heavy traffic. As a bettor, the added risk means you must have high odds. And in a 20-horse field, there is nothing wrong with spreading the risk around by playing three separate horses to win, as it's similar to betting one horse in a seven-horse race.

At 15/1 or more I'd consider betting Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba or Z Humor. Gayego is 12/1 on the morning line, but I'd bet him at 8/1 or better. Finally, Colonel John and Pyro look about the same to me, and they'll be fighting through traffic also, so I would need at least 6/1 to bet either of those.

Some of the contenders will be bet too low and I won't be able to use them, but others will be great prices and those are the ones that I'll buy my tickets on.

And if Big Brown wins by four lengths and pays $5.80, I'll live with it.