Celebrity horse Big Brown is now unbettable

Pssst. Big Brown is good.

Trainer Richard Dutrow knew it, and he told us. And told us. And told us.

But people who've been around race tracks for awhile have heard it all before. Flamboyant owners and trainers, it seems, have boldly predicted great victories for their horses since -- well -- men began training race horses.

And you can usually count on one thing: their sure thing will surely lose.

Big Brown, however, didn't lose. And what's more amazing is that the lightly-raced horse might have run better than the trainer said he would.

In the weeks of training leading up to Saturday's Kentucky Derby, Dutrow told anybody carrying a microphone, tape recorder or notebook, essentially that his horse was a lock. Then the trainer hinted that he planned to bet $100,000 of his own money.

"I feel very confident that if Big Brown breaks with the field, he will run a big race. I just haven't seen any other horse with my eyes that can beat him," Dutrow told the Daily Racing Form. "We're going to be betting on him."

In the Derby, Big Brown ran four paths wide on both turns as jockey Kent Desormeaux sat a few lengths off of the lead early. But the lost ground didn't matter because at the top of the stretch, Big Brown sprinted away from the 19 other runners, winning by 4 3/4 lengths.

"Everything went exactly the way I envisioned it would go," Dutrow told the Evansville Courier & Press afterward.

Big Brown only paid $6.80 as the favorite. But that's what happens when the trainer tips his horse to everyone in America.

As a sport, Saturday wasn't a great day for thoroughbred racing's image. The Kentucky Derby is one of the few times during the year when horse racing is celebrated by mainstream America. But filly Eight Belles, who finished a gallant second, broke down while pulling up and had to be destroyed.

Usually after the Derby, television reporters focus on the euphoric winning jockey, trainer and owners while the bed or roses is draped across the horse. But Eight Belles forced the spotlight to shine on the depressing reality of how dangerous of a game racing really is.

As horrible as it was, the post-race atmosphere could have been much worse.

Imagine for a moment that Big Brown ran poorly, or had to be scratched for whatever reason. Eight Belles would have won the race, then broke down and died. Immediately after the Derby, the announcers would have been celebrating a filly overcoming the odds to beat the colts, then a few minutes later would have been forced to tell us that she died. And if Eight Belles had been the Derby winner, her death would have hit millions of viewers much harder.

Television screens across America would have showed tears on the faces of the winning connections instead of smiles, and no horse would have been available to parade around the winners's circle wearing the bed of roses. The jubilant scene that millions of Americans have come to expect after the Derby would have been replaced by sadness and gloom.

As for future of Big Brown, the buzz now is all about him winning the Preakness and Belmont to become the first to take the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. But from a wagering perspective, he's unbettable until he loses, as his odds will be too low.

In his next few races, I'm betting against him because history shows that whoever beats Big Brown will likely pay a monster price. In the past, celebrity horses like Cigar, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Barbaro all lost to runners who paid much more than they should have. In 1996, Dare and Go was 39/1 when he beat Cigar in the Pacific Classic; Smarty Jones lost the 2004 Belmont Stakes to 36-1 shot Birdstone; in the 2006 Preakness, Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1; and back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, 70/1 shot Sarava defeated War Emblem.

These overlays are available, I believe, because horseplayers get emotional and cannot wager against these hugely popular animals. In some peoples' minds, it is un-American to do so.

Although some folks might feel foolish betting against what everybody else considers a foregone conclusion, I believe taking two or three decent-looking opponents in Big Brown's next few races is a great way to cash a huge ticket.

No question, Big Brown is undefeated and is going great right now.

But they all lose, eventually.

Kentucky Derby Strategy

Ah, the Kentucky Derby.

It's the most widely recognized race in the United States and the best betting race of the year. That's because every year the field is packed with up to 20 horses, but at least half of them don't stand a chance. They're entered by enthusiastic owners who want the "derby experience." And for many race fans, the Derby is the only horse race they play all year, so these novices bet bad horses that bump up the odds on legitimate contenders.

When handicapping the Derby, the first thing I do is throw out the runners who I don't think can win. So far it's worked well, as the only non-contender to beat me since 1996 was Giacomo a couple of years ago.

This year, Big Brown is getting all of the hype and his pace numbers look alot like Silver Charm's did when that horse won the 1997 Kentucky Derby. Along with Big Brown, Colonel John also has a good shot.

But bad things can happen on the road to the finish line in a 20-horse field, including traffic problems, bad rides, a fast pace or a slow pace. With the huge crowd on hand, many horses get spooked and just don't fire on Derby Day, so I suggest you need a minimum of 3/1 to bet Big Brown -- and you probably won't get it.

After throwing out 12 horses, I came up with six other contenders to go with Big Brown and Colonel John. They are Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Pyro, Z Humor, Monba and Gayego.

According to my pace ratings Gayego and Big Brown are the two horses with the best combination of early speed and closing kick. I'm not saying either one will be on the lead, but they might be laying anywhere from third through sixth entering the first turn before easing toward the front on the back stretch. However, horses like Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba, Z Humor, Pyro and Colonel John need to sit anywhere five to 15 lengths off the pace for their best shot.

Most Kentucky Derbies are won by horses near the lead on the far turn, so these late runners need good luck to get through the heavy traffic. As a bettor, the added risk means you must have high odds. And in a 20-horse field, there is nothing wrong with spreading the risk around by playing three separate horses to win, as it's similar to betting one horse in a seven-horse race.

At 15/1 or more I'd consider betting Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba or Z Humor. Gayego is 12/1 on the morning line, but I'd bet him at 8/1 or better. Finally, Colonel John and Pyro look about the same to me, and they'll be fighting through traffic also, so I would need at least 6/1 to bet either of those.

Some of the contenders will be bet too low and I won't be able to use them, but others will be great prices and those are the ones that I'll buy my tickets on.

And if Big Brown wins by four lengths and pays $5.80, I'll live with it.