Here's a good bet: Big Brown will lose.
Maybe he won't lose the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, but sometime between now and August, he will lose.
Cigar lost. Smarty Jones lost. And War Emblem lost. They all lose at one time or another.
Sometime this year, maybe in the Belmont, the Haskell or the Travers -- or it could be on Saturday -- a field of of 3-year-olds will roar down the stretch, and the racetrack crowd will become silent as people realize that Big Brown isn't running his race. That the king is being dethroned.
When it's over, horseplayers will blankly stare at each other in the same way pre-2004 Red Sox fans did after the last game of every season.
The racing crowd will look contemptuously at the jockey and trainer celebrating in the winner's circle, wondering how they could be so happy at such a depressing moment. And at the press conference that follows, the connections will practically apologize for winning and spoiling every one's day.
It's happened too many times before for me to believe that it won't happen again. Public handicappers will compare Big Brown to Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed -- in the same way young NBA players are compared to Michael Jordan.
But greatness doesn't come around much and it's always proven and never anointed.
I can hear Hank Goldberg now telling America that Big Brown ran one of the most impressive Kentucky Derby's in recent history. And that the real race in the Preakness is for second place.
But, Hank, what about the two-week layoff? What about the bad feet? What about a bounce? Don't you know how fragile horses are? How do we know he's 100 percent?
Hank might breeze through the negatives, but he'll conclude that Big Brown is just too good. And people will believe him, partly because they saw the Derby with their own eyes. They'll think 'how can a great horse like Big Brown lose to one of those other bums?' Nobody will be able to find anybody who is rooting against, or betting against Big Brown. The ones who do bet against him, aren't talking, and probably whispered their bet to the teller out of fear of being shunned by society.
It's likely that in Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the crowd will bet Big Brown like they're taking the Harlem Globetrotters over the Washington Generals. In the morning line, Big Brown is 1/2, but as group think gains momentum, the Preakness favorite might go off at 2/5 or less.
And don't get me wrong. I would like to see a Triple Crown winner as much as the next guy. However, horse racing is a betting game. Nostalgia, sentiment and misty eyes are nice, but show me how they make you money and I'll be more interested. Whatever happens, is going to happen, so why root for anything?
Big Brown is going great right now. But when a horse like him pays 25-cents on the dollar, he must win 8 of 10 races for his backers to break even. So it's practically impossible to make any decent money on Big Brown's type.
However, if Big Brown loses, the tote board will light up like a Christmas tree. Just like it did in 1996, when Dare and Go paid more than $80 as he stopped Cigar's 16-race win streak in the Pacific Classic; and in 2004, $2 tickets on Birdstone were worth more than $70 when he derailed Smarty Jones' Triple Crown dreams in the Belmont Stakes; also, not many forget the 2006 Preakness, when Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1.
And finally, back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, Sarava defeated War Emblem and paid in excess of $140.
Certainly, whoever beats Big Brown will probably pay at least $18 and could well pay a monster price. Some Preakness runners look hopeless. So I am throwing out seven of the 12 horses: Tres Borrachos, Giant Moon, Riley Tucker, Macho Again, Icabad Crane, Hey Byrn and Kentucky Bear.
Of the remaining four, not including Big Brown, I consider Gayego to be the best. In the Kentucky Derby, he had a bad break and was never in the race. But his previous race in the Arkansas Derby is only a few lengths inferior to Big Brown. In that April 12 race, Gayego stayed near the lead on a fast pace and won by 3/4 of a length. If Big Brown takes back, Gayego may get loose on a slow lead. Regardless, I think he's a good bet at 6/1 or more.
Kent Desormeaux is riding Big Brown extremely confidently and he may try to go wire to wire. Speed horses like Tres Borrachos and Giant Moon may force a fast pace, which could soften Big Brown up for late closers like Racecar Rhapsody and Stevil, which I would bet at 15/1.
Also, Yankee Bravo doesn't look like much in the racing form, but my pace ratings show that if he can stay back early, this horse is another who could come late with a furious closing kick. I'll bet at 10/1.
Of course, the most likely Preakness Stakes outcome is for Desormeaux to ride Big Brown to another victory at a tiny mutuel. And the most likely outcome for bettors consistently wagering on horses like Big Brown is a disappointing ride to the poor house.
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Friday, May 16, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
Young horses quick, but increasingly fragile; breeding "at a crisis state" says industry expert
Every year, the Preakness Stakes not only attracts some of the best 3-year-old colts in training, but also a massive throng of enthusiastic horse-racing fans. Some come wearing button-down navy blazers and sip sparkling water in the comfortable clubhouse, while others dress in old T-shirts, guzzle Budweiser and fling Frisbees in the sunny infield, as rock-n-roll plays on.
At last year's Preakness Stakes, a record crowd of 121,263 watched as Curlin bested Kentucky Derby-winner Street Sense by a head. This year, Big Brown could be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978, and a huge crowd is expected at Pimlico to see if he can take the second jewel.
Of course, people who have never heard of Big Brown will attend for the social atmosphere, and the grizzled horseplayers will be there because they always are -- that's just what they do.
However, another group has also circled Preakness Day on its calendar. This group is just as enthusiastic as the others, yet they're not coming to Pimlico because they love horse racing, but because they hate it.
And they want it to end.
PETA is planning to picket the May 17 Preakness Stakes but, ironically, the protest might do more to pressure Thoroughbred racing into saving itself than to end the sport. People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals says that when Eight Belles shattered both ankles and died on the racetrack at the Kentucky Derby, it was a reminder that horses are being exploited and abused.
Eight Belles death came two years after 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro was injured in the Preakness. Barbaro struggled to recover for months, but was also euthanized.
PETA says horses are raced too early, the hard dirt tracks are dangerous to joints, and that jockeys whip the horses too hard.
"In pursuit of cash and industry prizes and hefty stud fees, some trainers and owners run horses too young, dose them with large quantities of drugs, order jockeys to whip them mercilessly, race horses when they're exhausted and lame, and sell them for slaughter when they can no longer turn a profit," said a release on the PETA website entitled "Drugged, whipped and run to death. A call for Congressional hearings."
On the PETA website, folks are asked click a button to add their names to a petition headed to Congress. PETA, a group which believes animals deserve to live free from suffering and exploitation, goes so far as demanding an end to horse racing. But also lists less drastic requests such as banning whips and mandating that tracks install synthetic surfaces, which are believed to be kinder to horse's bones and joints.
Industry insiders acknowledge that Thoroughbreds are much more fragile today than they were decades ago. And some experts fear that, unless breeding tendencies change, injury problems might get to the point where horses won't run much more than once a year. They point to a study which shows that, in 1960, the average racehorse in the United States made 11.3 starts a year, but today they only run 6.3 times.
"We are at a crisis state," said Churchill Downs veterinarian and equine surgeon Dr. Larry Bramlage to the the Wall Street Journal. "The soundness of the horses has completely gone out the window because we don't reward it anymore. Pretty soon we won't have any animals that can go more than one race."
Two main reasons for unsound horses are that, decades ago, breeders raced the horses they produced, so they had an interest in breeding durable runners, said columnist Andrew Beyer in the Daily Racing Form. But now breeders sell most of their racehorses to others. Also, during the last few decades, Thoroughbred racing expanded the use of medication, some of which is banned in other countries.
"They allow infirm horses to achieve success, go to stud and pass on their infirmities to the next generation," Beyer wrote.
These days, horses are bred for brilliant speed, so owners can get quick returns in 2-year-old or 3-year-old races. And one of the most prolific breeding lines is that of Native Dancer, a champion in the 1950's. Native Dancer produces horses with heavy muscling that can overwhelm the ankles and feet, said Anne Peters, the matings advisor for Three Chimneys Farm, which bred Eight Belles.
Native Dancer himself had leg problems that ended his career.
"Many of the family's descendants tend to pass on unsoundness," Peters told the Wall Street Journal.
Horse racing's problems have grown partly because it has not had an outspoken critic to pressure change, said the Humane Society's President Wayne Pacelle.
"It's time for the Thoroughbred industry to deal with its problems," said Pacelle to the Blood Horse magazine.
Racing leaders recognize that the high-profile injuries to Eight Belles and Barbaro have caused people to turn against the sport. And they seem motivated to find solutions. Greg Means of the Alpine Group, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s lobbyist in Washington, D.C., said that the horse racing industry will not ignore the concerns of special-interest groups like PETA and the Humane Society, which have millions of constituents.
“I think they have to be taken seriously in the climate that is Washington, D.C.,” Means told the Blood Horse.
Breeding and medication issues cannot be solved anytime soon, but on May 8 the Jockey Club formed a Thoroughbred Safety Committee. Seven of the club's members were chosen to review every facet of equine health -- including breeding practices, medication, the rules of racing and track surfaces. It intends to issue recommendations to be adopted by the industry that lead to horse safety.
The seven members of the committee are Stuart S. Janney III (chairman), John Barr, James G. (Jimmy) Bell, Dr. Larry Bramlage, Donald R. Dizney, Dell Hancock and Dr. Hiram C. Polk Jr. Each is a member of the Jockey Club. The committee will meet for the first time on May 14, three days before the Preakness Stakes.
“All seven of these individuals have dedicated a major part of their lives to thoroughbred breeding and racing and have shown a consistent and unwavering concern for the welfare of Thoroughbreds,” said Ogden Mills Phipps, the chairman of the Jockey Club. “We will reach out to involve others in the industry and we will do everything in our power to encourage changes that will benefit the breed in any way. We will do this in a timely manner.”
At last year's Preakness Stakes, a record crowd of 121,263 watched as Curlin bested Kentucky Derby-winner Street Sense by a head. This year, Big Brown could be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978, and a huge crowd is expected at Pimlico to see if he can take the second jewel.
Of course, people who have never heard of Big Brown will attend for the social atmosphere, and the grizzled horseplayers will be there because they always are -- that's just what they do.
However, another group has also circled Preakness Day on its calendar. This group is just as enthusiastic as the others, yet they're not coming to Pimlico because they love horse racing, but because they hate it.
And they want it to end.
PETA is planning to picket the May 17 Preakness Stakes but, ironically, the protest might do more to pressure Thoroughbred racing into saving itself than to end the sport. People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals says that when Eight Belles shattered both ankles and died on the racetrack at the Kentucky Derby, it was a reminder that horses are being exploited and abused.
Eight Belles death came two years after 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro was injured in the Preakness. Barbaro struggled to recover for months, but was also euthanized.
PETA says horses are raced too early, the hard dirt tracks are dangerous to joints, and that jockeys whip the horses too hard.
"In pursuit of cash and industry prizes and hefty stud fees, some trainers and owners run horses too young, dose them with large quantities of drugs, order jockeys to whip them mercilessly, race horses when they're exhausted and lame, and sell them for slaughter when they can no longer turn a profit," said a release on the PETA website entitled "Drugged, whipped and run to death. A call for Congressional hearings."
On the PETA website, folks are asked click a button to add their names to a petition headed to Congress. PETA, a group which believes animals deserve to live free from suffering and exploitation, goes so far as demanding an end to horse racing. But also lists less drastic requests such as banning whips and mandating that tracks install synthetic surfaces, which are believed to be kinder to horse's bones and joints.
Industry insiders acknowledge that Thoroughbreds are much more fragile today than they were decades ago. And some experts fear that, unless breeding tendencies change, injury problems might get to the point where horses won't run much more than once a year. They point to a study which shows that, in 1960, the average racehorse in the United States made 11.3 starts a year, but today they only run 6.3 times.
"We are at a crisis state," said Churchill Downs veterinarian and equine surgeon Dr. Larry Bramlage to the the Wall Street Journal. "The soundness of the horses has completely gone out the window because we don't reward it anymore. Pretty soon we won't have any animals that can go more than one race."
Two main reasons for unsound horses are that, decades ago, breeders raced the horses they produced, so they had an interest in breeding durable runners, said columnist Andrew Beyer in the Daily Racing Form. But now breeders sell most of their racehorses to others. Also, during the last few decades, Thoroughbred racing expanded the use of medication, some of which is banned in other countries.
"They allow infirm horses to achieve success, go to stud and pass on their infirmities to the next generation," Beyer wrote.
These days, horses are bred for brilliant speed, so owners can get quick returns in 2-year-old or 3-year-old races. And one of the most prolific breeding lines is that of Native Dancer, a champion in the 1950's. Native Dancer produces horses with heavy muscling that can overwhelm the ankles and feet, said Anne Peters, the matings advisor for Three Chimneys Farm, which bred Eight Belles.
Native Dancer himself had leg problems that ended his career.
"Many of the family's descendants tend to pass on unsoundness," Peters told the Wall Street Journal.
Horse racing's problems have grown partly because it has not had an outspoken critic to pressure change, said the Humane Society's President Wayne Pacelle.
"It's time for the Thoroughbred industry to deal with its problems," said Pacelle to the Blood Horse magazine.
Racing leaders recognize that the high-profile injuries to Eight Belles and Barbaro have caused people to turn against the sport. And they seem motivated to find solutions. Greg Means of the Alpine Group, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s lobbyist in Washington, D.C., said that the horse racing industry will not ignore the concerns of special-interest groups like PETA and the Humane Society, which have millions of constituents.
“I think they have to be taken seriously in the climate that is Washington, D.C.,” Means told the Blood Horse.
Breeding and medication issues cannot be solved anytime soon, but on May 8 the Jockey Club formed a Thoroughbred Safety Committee. Seven of the club's members were chosen to review every facet of equine health -- including breeding practices, medication, the rules of racing and track surfaces. It intends to issue recommendations to be adopted by the industry that lead to horse safety.
The seven members of the committee are Stuart S. Janney III (chairman), John Barr, James G. (Jimmy) Bell, Dr. Larry Bramlage, Donald R. Dizney, Dell Hancock and Dr. Hiram C. Polk Jr. Each is a member of the Jockey Club. The committee will meet for the first time on May 14, three days before the Preakness Stakes.
“All seven of these individuals have dedicated a major part of their lives to thoroughbred breeding and racing and have shown a consistent and unwavering concern for the welfare of Thoroughbreds,” said Ogden Mills Phipps, the chairman of the Jockey Club. “We will reach out to involve others in the industry and we will do everything in our power to encourage changes that will benefit the breed in any way. We will do this in a timely manner.”
Monday, May 5, 2008
Celebrity horse Big Brown is now unbettable
Pssst. Big Brown is good.
Trainer Richard Dutrow knew it, and he told us. And told us. And told us.
But people who've been around race tracks for awhile have heard it all before. Flamboyant owners and trainers, it seems, have boldly predicted great victories for their horses since -- well -- men began training race horses.
And you can usually count on one thing: their sure thing will surely lose.
Big Brown, however, didn't lose. And what's more amazing is that the lightly-raced horse might have run better than the trainer said he would.
In the weeks of training leading up to Saturday's Kentucky Derby, Dutrow told anybody carrying a microphone, tape recorder or notebook, essentially that his horse was a lock. Then the trainer hinted that he planned to bet $100,000 of his own money.
"I feel very confident that if Big Brown breaks with the field, he will run a big race. I just haven't seen any other horse with my eyes that can beat him," Dutrow told the Daily Racing Form. "We're going to be betting on him."
In the Derby, Big Brown ran four paths wide on both turns as jockey Kent Desormeaux sat a few lengths off of the lead early. But the lost ground didn't matter because at the top of the stretch, Big Brown sprinted away from the 19 other runners, winning by 4 3/4 lengths.
"Everything went exactly the way I envisioned it would go," Dutrow told the Evansville Courier & Press afterward.
Big Brown only paid $6.80 as the favorite. But that's what happens when the trainer tips his horse to everyone in America.
As a sport, Saturday wasn't a great day for thoroughbred racing's image. The Kentucky Derby is one of the few times during the year when horse racing is celebrated by mainstream America. But filly Eight Belles, who finished a gallant second, broke down while pulling up and had to be destroyed.
Usually after the Derby, television reporters focus on the euphoric winning jockey, trainer and owners while the bed or roses is draped across the horse. But Eight Belles forced the spotlight to shine on the depressing reality of how dangerous of a game racing really is.
As horrible as it was, the post-race atmosphere could have been much worse.
Imagine for a moment that Big Brown ran poorly, or had to be scratched for whatever reason. Eight Belles would have won the race, then broke down and died. Immediately after the Derby, the announcers would have been celebrating a filly overcoming the odds to beat the colts, then a few minutes later would have been forced to tell us that she died. And if Eight Belles had been the Derby winner, her death would have hit millions of viewers much harder.
Television screens across America would have showed tears on the faces of the winning connections instead of smiles, and no horse would have been available to parade around the winners's circle wearing the bed of roses. The jubilant scene that millions of Americans have come to expect after the Derby would have been replaced by sadness and gloom.
As for future of Big Brown, the buzz now is all about him winning the Preakness and Belmont to become the first to take the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. But from a wagering perspective, he's unbettable until he loses, as his odds will be too low.
In his next few races, I'm betting against him because history shows that whoever beats Big Brown will likely pay a monster price. In the past, celebrity horses like Cigar, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Barbaro all lost to runners who paid much more than they should have. In 1996, Dare and Go was 39/1 when he beat Cigar in the Pacific Classic; Smarty Jones lost the 2004 Belmont Stakes to 36-1 shot Birdstone; in the 2006 Preakness, Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1; and back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, 70/1 shot Sarava defeated War Emblem.
These overlays are available, I believe, because horseplayers get emotional and cannot wager against these hugely popular animals. In some peoples' minds, it is un-American to do so.
Although some folks might feel foolish betting against what everybody else considers a foregone conclusion, I believe taking two or three decent-looking opponents in Big Brown's next few races is a great way to cash a huge ticket.
No question, Big Brown is undefeated and is going great right now.
But they all lose, eventually.
Trainer Richard Dutrow knew it, and he told us. And told us. And told us.
But people who've been around race tracks for awhile have heard it all before. Flamboyant owners and trainers, it seems, have boldly predicted great victories for their horses since -- well -- men began training race horses.
And you can usually count on one thing: their sure thing will surely lose.
Big Brown, however, didn't lose. And what's more amazing is that the lightly-raced horse might have run better than the trainer said he would.
In the weeks of training leading up to Saturday's Kentucky Derby, Dutrow told anybody carrying a microphone, tape recorder or notebook, essentially that his horse was a lock. Then the trainer hinted that he planned to bet $100,000 of his own money.
"I feel very confident that if Big Brown breaks with the field, he will run a big race. I just haven't seen any other horse with my eyes that can beat him," Dutrow told the Daily Racing Form. "We're going to be betting on him."
In the Derby, Big Brown ran four paths wide on both turns as jockey Kent Desormeaux sat a few lengths off of the lead early. But the lost ground didn't matter because at the top of the stretch, Big Brown sprinted away from the 19 other runners, winning by 4 3/4 lengths.
"Everything went exactly the way I envisioned it would go," Dutrow told the Evansville Courier & Press afterward.
Big Brown only paid $6.80 as the favorite. But that's what happens when the trainer tips his horse to everyone in America.
As a sport, Saturday wasn't a great day for thoroughbred racing's image. The Kentucky Derby is one of the few times during the year when horse racing is celebrated by mainstream America. But filly Eight Belles, who finished a gallant second, broke down while pulling up and had to be destroyed.
Usually after the Derby, television reporters focus on the euphoric winning jockey, trainer and owners while the bed or roses is draped across the horse. But Eight Belles forced the spotlight to shine on the depressing reality of how dangerous of a game racing really is.
As horrible as it was, the post-race atmosphere could have been much worse.
Imagine for a moment that Big Brown ran poorly, or had to be scratched for whatever reason. Eight Belles would have won the race, then broke down and died. Immediately after the Derby, the announcers would have been celebrating a filly overcoming the odds to beat the colts, then a few minutes later would have been forced to tell us that she died. And if Eight Belles had been the Derby winner, her death would have hit millions of viewers much harder.
Television screens across America would have showed tears on the faces of the winning connections instead of smiles, and no horse would have been available to parade around the winners's circle wearing the bed of roses. The jubilant scene that millions of Americans have come to expect after the Derby would have been replaced by sadness and gloom.
As for future of Big Brown, the buzz now is all about him winning the Preakness and Belmont to become the first to take the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. But from a wagering perspective, he's unbettable until he loses, as his odds will be too low.
In his next few races, I'm betting against him because history shows that whoever beats Big Brown will likely pay a monster price. In the past, celebrity horses like Cigar, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Barbaro all lost to runners who paid much more than they should have. In 1996, Dare and Go was 39/1 when he beat Cigar in the Pacific Classic; Smarty Jones lost the 2004 Belmont Stakes to 36-1 shot Birdstone; in the 2006 Preakness, Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1; and back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, 70/1 shot Sarava defeated War Emblem.
These overlays are available, I believe, because horseplayers get emotional and cannot wager against these hugely popular animals. In some peoples' minds, it is un-American to do so.
Although some folks might feel foolish betting against what everybody else considers a foregone conclusion, I believe taking two or three decent-looking opponents in Big Brown's next few races is a great way to cash a huge ticket.
No question, Big Brown is undefeated and is going great right now.
But they all lose, eventually.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Kentucky Derby Strategy
Ah, the Kentucky Derby.
It's the most widely recognized race in the United States and the best betting race of the year. That's because every year the field is packed with up to 20 horses, but at least half of them don't stand a chance. They're entered by enthusiastic owners who want the "derby experience." And for many race fans, the Derby is the only horse race they play all year, so these novices bet bad horses that bump up the odds on legitimate contenders.
When handicapping the Derby, the first thing I do is throw out the runners who I don't think can win. So far it's worked well, as the only non-contender to beat me since 1996 was Giacomo a couple of years ago.
This year, Big Brown is getting all of the hype and his pace numbers look alot like Silver Charm's did when that horse won the 1997 Kentucky Derby. Along with Big Brown, Colonel John also has a good shot.
But bad things can happen on the road to the finish line in a 20-horse field, including traffic problems, bad rides, a fast pace or a slow pace. With the huge crowd on hand, many horses get spooked and just don't fire on Derby Day, so I suggest you need a minimum of 3/1 to bet Big Brown -- and you probably won't get it.
After throwing out 12 horses, I came up with six other contenders to go with Big Brown and Colonel John. They are Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Pyro, Z Humor, Monba and Gayego.
According to my pace ratings Gayego and Big Brown are the two horses with the best combination of early speed and closing kick. I'm not saying either one will be on the lead, but they might be laying anywhere from third through sixth entering the first turn before easing toward the front on the back stretch. However, horses like Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba, Z Humor, Pyro and Colonel John need to sit anywhere five to 15 lengths off the pace for their best shot.
Most Kentucky Derbies are won by horses near the lead on the far turn, so these late runners need good luck to get through the heavy traffic. As a bettor, the added risk means you must have high odds. And in a 20-horse field, there is nothing wrong with spreading the risk around by playing three separate horses to win, as it's similar to betting one horse in a seven-horse race.
At 15/1 or more I'd consider betting Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba or Z Humor. Gayego is 12/1 on the morning line, but I'd bet him at 8/1 or better. Finally, Colonel John and Pyro look about the same to me, and they'll be fighting through traffic also, so I would need at least 6/1 to bet either of those.
Some of the contenders will be bet too low and I won't be able to use them, but others will be great prices and those are the ones that I'll buy my tickets on.
And if Big Brown wins by four lengths and pays $5.80, I'll live with it.
It's the most widely recognized race in the United States and the best betting race of the year. That's because every year the field is packed with up to 20 horses, but at least half of them don't stand a chance. They're entered by enthusiastic owners who want the "derby experience." And for many race fans, the Derby is the only horse race they play all year, so these novices bet bad horses that bump up the odds on legitimate contenders.
When handicapping the Derby, the first thing I do is throw out the runners who I don't think can win. So far it's worked well, as the only non-contender to beat me since 1996 was Giacomo a couple of years ago.
This year, Big Brown is getting all of the hype and his pace numbers look alot like Silver Charm's did when that horse won the 1997 Kentucky Derby. Along with Big Brown, Colonel John also has a good shot.
But bad things can happen on the road to the finish line in a 20-horse field, including traffic problems, bad rides, a fast pace or a slow pace. With the huge crowd on hand, many horses get spooked and just don't fire on Derby Day, so I suggest you need a minimum of 3/1 to bet Big Brown -- and you probably won't get it.
After throwing out 12 horses, I came up with six other contenders to go with Big Brown and Colonel John. They are Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Pyro, Z Humor, Monba and Gayego.
According to my pace ratings Gayego and Big Brown are the two horses with the best combination of early speed and closing kick. I'm not saying either one will be on the lead, but they might be laying anywhere from third through sixth entering the first turn before easing toward the front on the back stretch. However, horses like Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba, Z Humor, Pyro and Colonel John need to sit anywhere five to 15 lengths off the pace for their best shot.
Most Kentucky Derbies are won by horses near the lead on the far turn, so these late runners need good luck to get through the heavy traffic. As a bettor, the added risk means you must have high odds. And in a 20-horse field, there is nothing wrong with spreading the risk around by playing three separate horses to win, as it's similar to betting one horse in a seven-horse race.
At 15/1 or more I'd consider betting Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba or Z Humor. Gayego is 12/1 on the morning line, but I'd bet him at 8/1 or better. Finally, Colonel John and Pyro look about the same to me, and they'll be fighting through traffic also, so I would need at least 6/1 to bet either of those.
Some of the contenders will be bet too low and I won't be able to use them, but others will be great prices and those are the ones that I'll buy my tickets on.
And if Big Brown wins by four lengths and pays $5.80, I'll live with it.
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