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Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Race 8 Hollywood MSW -- 2yo -- 5Fs

Contenders------Morning Line

#1 Lippy Rules--3/1
#2 Winning Dancer--20/1
#3 Mad For Candy--20/1
#4 Veranda Cafe--6/1
#5 Sorry Baby----8/1
#6 Susan's Wildcat--15/1
#7 Candilejas--7/2
#8 Evita Argentina--15/1
#10 Brewha Baby--4/1

I am keeping an open mind and playing the odds board as seven of nine of these horses are first-time starters. Lippy Rules got the lead in her first race, but is sure to be an underlay with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure staring everybody in the face. Trainer Jeff Mullins sadles #7 Candilejas who hopped at the beginning of her only start then went 5-wide before finishing second in a 10-horse field at Keeneland. She also figures to be bet too low.


However, Bob Baffert's #5 Sorry Baby, a first-time starter, has strong angles going for it, especially from 7/2 to 9/1. I will spilt my bet between win and place at 10/1 or more. Also, #6 Susan's Wildcat is the type of horse that is a good bet between 7/2 and 19/1.

Listed with odds rangers are other wagering possibilities, which I would bet less on: #2 Winning Dancer at 10/1-19/1, #3 Mad for Candy at 10/1-19/1, #4 Veranda Cafe at 7/2-15/1, #8 Evita Argentina at 7/2 to 19/1 and #10 Brewha Baby at 7/2 to 19/1.

On the website, I will bet $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby if she stays below 10/1, but if she drifts above then $100 win and $100 place. Also, I will bet $100 to win on #6 Susan's Wildcat if she's 7/2 to 19/1. Of these horses, #4, #8, #10, I will bet $50 to win on the two longest prices that are less than 20/1.

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