At the top of the stretch, #7 S.S. Stone was being squeezed between #4 Say It Again and #10 Del Conte, but jockey Rafael Bejarano found space and rallied up the rail to nail #12 Speight the Halo. I bet $200 on S.S. Stone at 13/1 and because #6 Street Hero went off at less than 7/2, I had no wager on him. I also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather at 6/1.
Total bet--$400
Total net--$2,580
Monthly bankroll--$1,700
Total bankroll--$51,700
Results
7 S.S. Stone--------$29.80 $10.80 $5.40
12 Speight the Halo---------$6.80 $5.40
6 Street Hero---------------------$5.00
Post time odds
1 Massone--2.70
3 Freedom Ride--41.80
4 Say It Again--67.40
5 Genki--40.30
6 Street Hero--3.30
7 S. S. Stone--13.90
9 Loyal Son--6.80
10 Del Conte--6.30
11 Nochangenweather--6.60
12 Speight the Halo--5.00
SCR - Captain Steel
SCR - Day With Desi
Blog moved to www.maidenking.wordpress.com
See you there!
Monday, June 30, 2008
Results Race 6 Hollywood -- won $1,200
Dropping into maiden claiming for the first time, #5 Ace High Hand showed his class by going to the lead early and never giving it up. I bet $500 on him at 5/2 and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry at 18/1. Another one of my picks, #7 Rare Chant, was scratched.
Total bet--$550
Total net--$1,200
Monthly Bankroll--($880)
Current Bankroll--$49,120
Results
5 Ace High Hand---$7.00 $4.20 $3.00
3 Lunch Time------------$13.40 $5.80
1 Bigum------------------------$3.00
Post time odds
1 Bigum--2.00
2 Larrylarrylarry--18.20
3 Lunch Time--15.40
4 Gold Star Status--27.40
5 Ace High Hand--2.50
6 Officer M. D.--11.30
8 Eminent Honor--73.20
9 Anatolian Gold--5.00
10 Geauxforthedeaux--5.10
SCR - Rare Chant
Total bet--$550
Total net--$1,200
Monthly Bankroll--($880)
Current Bankroll--$49,120
Results
5 Ace High Hand---$7.00 $4.20 $3.00
3 Lunch Time------------$13.40 $5.80
1 Bigum------------------------$3.00
Post time odds
1 Bigum--2.00
2 Larrylarrylarry--18.20
3 Lunch Time--15.40
4 Gold Star Status--27.40
5 Ace High Hand--2.50
6 Officer M. D.--11.30
8 Eminent Honor--73.20
9 Anatolian Gold--5.00
10 Geauxforthedeaux--5.10
SCR - Rare Chant
Results Race 4 Hollywood -- lost $700
None of the first time starters ran early with Stormy Game so he breezed to an easy lead and had plenty left in the tank for the stretch. I lost $400 on #7 Warrington at 7/2 and $300 on #2 Son of Dionisi at 4/1.
Total bet--$700
Total net--($700)
Monthly bankroll--($2,080)
Total bankroll--$47,920
Results
8 Stormy Game----$6.80 $3.80 $2.80
4 Warren's Moonkross---$3.00 $2.10
7 Warrington-----------------$2.60
Post time odds
2 Son of Dionisi--4.00
3 Sur Brio--20.30
4 Warren's Moonkross--2.00
5 Highly Unusual--38.20
6 Bay Zing--13.70
7 Warrington--3.50
8 Stormy Game--2.40
SCR - Mort Robbins
Total bet--$700
Total net--($700)
Monthly bankroll--($2,080)
Total bankroll--$47,920
Results
8 Stormy Game----$6.80 $3.80 $2.80
4 Warren's Moonkross---$3.00 $2.10
7 Warrington-----------------$2.60
Post time odds
2 Son of Dionisi--4.00
3 Sur Brio--20.30
4 Warren's Moonkross--2.00
5 Highly Unusual--38.20
6 Bay Zing--13.70
7 Warrington--3.50
8 Stormy Game--2.40
SCR - Mort Robbins
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Race 9 Hollywood -- MSW -- 5.5Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#1 Massone--9/2
#6 Street Hero--12/1
#7 S.S. Stone--6/1
#9 Loyal Son--10/1
#10 Del Conte--8/1
#11 Nochangenweather--5/1
#12 Speight the Halo--4/1
The early speed in here is #11 Nochangenweather who led for the first half of his last race before tiring to lose by 3. The owners paid $400,000 for this colt who was bet to 7/2 versus nine others in his debut and 4/1 also in a field of 10 in his second race. Should have the early lead, which is important in these races and 5/1 would be a good price. The Ron McAnally-trained Massone, #1, looked strong closing well once he got untracked in his debut.
Second-time starters trained by Richard Matlow and Bob Baffert always have to be considered. They are sending out #9 Loyal Son and #10 Del Conte respectively and either could dramatically improve to win this race.
Of the first timers running, the angles supporting #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone are stronger than those backing #5 Genki and #12 Speight the Halo. Any of them would be OK from 10/1 to 19/1, but I would bet much less on numbers 5 and 12.
On the site, I will bet $200 to win on numbers #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone at 7/2 to 19/1. I will also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather if he's 5/1 or more. If not, then I'll bet $100 on #9 Loyal Son and $100 on #10 Del Conte, provided they are each 8/1 or greater.
#1 Massone--9/2
#6 Street Hero--12/1
#7 S.S. Stone--6/1
#9 Loyal Son--10/1
#10 Del Conte--8/1
#11 Nochangenweather--5/1
#12 Speight the Halo--4/1
The early speed in here is #11 Nochangenweather who led for the first half of his last race before tiring to lose by 3. The owners paid $400,000 for this colt who was bet to 7/2 versus nine others in his debut and 4/1 also in a field of 10 in his second race. Should have the early lead, which is important in these races and 5/1 would be a good price. The Ron McAnally-trained Massone, #1, looked strong closing well once he got untracked in his debut.
Second-time starters trained by Richard Matlow and Bob Baffert always have to be considered. They are sending out #9 Loyal Son and #10 Del Conte respectively and either could dramatically improve to win this race.
Of the first timers running, the angles supporting #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone are stronger than those backing #5 Genki and #12 Speight the Halo. Any of them would be OK from 10/1 to 19/1, but I would bet much less on numbers 5 and 12.
On the site, I will bet $200 to win on numbers #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone at 7/2 to 19/1. I will also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather if he's 5/1 or more. If not, then I'll bet $100 on #9 Loyal Son and $100 on #10 Del Conte, provided they are each 8/1 or greater.
Race 6 Hollywood Park -- MDN $40K -- 7Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#1 Bigum--7/2
#2 Larrylarrylarry--20/1
#5 Ace High Hand--5/2
#7 Rare Chant--10/1
Although coming out of a route race, #7 Rare Chant is the dominant speed. Trained by Rafael Becerra, he's running his fourth race back from a long layoff and has been showing speed in routes on both the main track and grass course. He looks like he could win at a good price.
Both #1 Bigum and #5 Ace High Hand have the right profile for this race. Ace High Hand ran six previous times in Maiden Special Weight races where he was bet to 3/1 or less five times. In his last race, jockey Mike Smith breezed him in the stretch while running a 71 so you can throw that race out. It's his third race back from a long layoff, so Ace High Hand might be sitting on a big one.
Ridden by Garrett Gomez, #1 Bigum is taking his 18th shot at maidens. However, in his last nine races he's run Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to high seventies and ran an 81 in his last.
The Jerry Fanning-trained Larrylarrylarry, #2, could surprise as it looked like the jockey merely breezed him in his debut after being bet to 7/1 and working out well leading up to the race. At 20/1, he might be worth a few bucks.
I will bet $500 on Ace High Hand at 2/1 or more. But if he's bet to 9/5 or less I'll forget Ace High Hand and put $300 on Bigum instead at 5/2 or higher. Also, I'm putting $250 on #7 Rare Chant and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry.
#1 Bigum--7/2
#2 Larrylarrylarry--20/1
#5 Ace High Hand--5/2
#7 Rare Chant--10/1
Although coming out of a route race, #7 Rare Chant is the dominant speed. Trained by Rafael Becerra, he's running his fourth race back from a long layoff and has been showing speed in routes on both the main track and grass course. He looks like he could win at a good price.
Both #1 Bigum and #5 Ace High Hand have the right profile for this race. Ace High Hand ran six previous times in Maiden Special Weight races where he was bet to 3/1 or less five times. In his last race, jockey Mike Smith breezed him in the stretch while running a 71 so you can throw that race out. It's his third race back from a long layoff, so Ace High Hand might be sitting on a big one.
Ridden by Garrett Gomez, #1 Bigum is taking his 18th shot at maidens. However, in his last nine races he's run Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to high seventies and ran an 81 in his last.
The Jerry Fanning-trained Larrylarrylarry, #2, could surprise as it looked like the jockey merely breezed him in his debut after being bet to 7/1 and working out well leading up to the race. At 20/1, he might be worth a few bucks.
I will bet $500 on Ace High Hand at 2/1 or more. But if he's bet to 9/5 or less I'll forget Ace High Hand and put $300 on Bigum instead at 5/2 or higher. Also, I'm putting $250 on #7 Rare Chant and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry.
Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 40K -- 6.5Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#2 Son of Dionisi--4/1
#4 Warren's Moonkross--3/1
#7 Warrington--5/1
#8 Stormy Game--5/2
Unless one of the three first-time starters runs with #8 Stormy Game, he figures to get an easy lead without serious pressure developing until they reach the half mile. That's when #2 Son of Dionisi and #7 Warrington should be making their moves. In the stretch, #4 Warren's Moonkross has the best late run.
On June 8, #2 Son of Dionisi made a decent move on the turn while four paths wide. On that day, trainer Gary Mandella was brining him off a 16-month layoff so he probably wasn't at his best. This horse has promise because he ran an 81 Beyer Speed Figures in his debut, which is the best in this field.
On May 9, #7 Warrington showed decent early speed while running with a field of Maiden Special Weights, then was not asked in the stretch while running a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. I think he can run the 82 necessary to win this race.
Finally, #4 Warren's Moonkross was catching the leaders in the stretch last time when he lost by 3 lengths.
On the site, I will play $400 to win on the #7 Warrington at 3/1 or more and $300 on whoever goes off at a longer price between #2 Son of Dionisi and #4 Warren's Moonkross.
#2 Son of Dionisi--4/1
#4 Warren's Moonkross--3/1
#7 Warrington--5/1
#8 Stormy Game--5/2
Unless one of the three first-time starters runs with #8 Stormy Game, he figures to get an easy lead without serious pressure developing until they reach the half mile. That's when #2 Son of Dionisi and #7 Warrington should be making their moves. In the stretch, #4 Warren's Moonkross has the best late run.
On June 8, #2 Son of Dionisi made a decent move on the turn while four paths wide. On that day, trainer Gary Mandella was brining him off a 16-month layoff so he probably wasn't at his best. This horse has promise because he ran an 81 Beyer Speed Figures in his debut, which is the best in this field.
On May 9, #7 Warrington showed decent early speed while running with a field of Maiden Special Weights, then was not asked in the stretch while running a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. I think he can run the 82 necessary to win this race.
Finally, #4 Warren's Moonkross was catching the leaders in the stretch last time when he lost by 3 lengths.
On the site, I will play $400 to win on the #7 Warrington at 3/1 or more and $300 on whoever goes off at a longer price between #2 Son of Dionisi and #4 Warren's Moonkross.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Results Race 8 Hollywood -- lost $800
Bet an army of first timers, but none of them fired. Ten Churros only ran for half of the race in his debut, but put it all together on Thursday. I am sure owner/handicapper Bruno DeJulio keyed him in the Pick 6, which had a $700,000 carryover. I bet $200 on #5 Yoursmynanours, #6 Paradisi and #7 Grace Gryder. Also had $100 on #4 Ammarie and #9 Sagebrush Angel.
Total bet--$800
Total net--($800)
Monthly bankroll--($1380)
Bankroll--$48,620
Results
3 Ten Churros-----$6.40 $3.80 $2.60
14 O Goodday----------- $4.80 $3.00
11 Chatty LuLu----------------$2.80
Post time odds
1 Miss Reyna--26.10
2 Can Can Girl--16.90
3 Ten Churros--2.20
4 Ammarie--19.20
5 Yoursmynanours--14.50
6 Paradisi--6.80
7 Grace Gryder--18.30
9 Sagebrush Angel--19.90
11 Chatty Lulu--3.60
14 0 Goodday--3.40
SCR Soup Deeohdouble
SCR Shootinforthestarz
SCR Bajan Kitty
SCR Lovely Lolly
SCR Monica's Edge
Total bet--$800
Total net--($800)
Monthly bankroll--($1380)
Bankroll--$48,620
Results
3 Ten Churros-----$6.40 $3.80 $2.60
14 O Goodday----------- $4.80 $3.00
11 Chatty LuLu----------------$2.80
Post time odds
1 Miss Reyna--26.10
2 Can Can Girl--16.90
3 Ten Churros--2.20
4 Ammarie--19.20
5 Yoursmynanours--14.50
6 Paradisi--6.80
7 Grace Gryder--18.30
9 Sagebrush Angel--19.90
11 Chatty Lulu--3.60
14 0 Goodday--3.40
SCR Soup Deeohdouble
SCR Shootinforthestarz
SCR Bajan Kitty
SCR Lovely Lolly
SCR Monica's Edge
Results Race 4 Hollywood -- lost $1,000
Wagered $650 on #5 Vanaldi and #350 on #1 Warren's Jack V., who were both beaten by late-runner #3 Cold Prince.
Total bet--$1,000
Total net--($1,000)
Monthly bankroll--($580)
Bankroll--$49,420
Results
3 Cold Prince----$11.20 $4.40 $2.80
1 Warren's Jack V.------$4.40 $3.00
5 Vanaldi---------------------$2.40
Post time odds
1 Warren's Jack V.--3.70
2 Bean Who--40.60
3 Cold Prince--4.60
4 Heywatchulookingat--32.00
5 Vanaldi--2.10
8 Black Magic--14.50
9 Deputy Prize--4.50
10 Quiet Revolution--4.70
SCR - Holy Mystery
SCR - Strong Suggestion
Total bet--$1,000
Total net--($1,000)
Monthly bankroll--($580)
Bankroll--$49,420
Results
3 Cold Prince----$11.20 $4.40 $2.80
1 Warren's Jack V.------$4.40 $3.00
5 Vanaldi---------------------$2.40
Post time odds
1 Warren's Jack V.--3.70
2 Bean Who--40.60
3 Cold Prince--4.60
4 Heywatchulookingat--32.00
5 Vanaldi--2.10
8 Black Magic--14.50
9 Deputy Prize--4.50
10 Quiet Revolution--4.70
SCR - Holy Mystery
SCR - Strong Suggestion
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Race 8 Hollywood -- MDN 40K -- 5Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#1 Miss Reyna--20/1
#3 Ten Churros--2/1
#4 Ammarie--20/1
#5 Yoursmyunanours--12/1
#6 Paradisi--8/1
#7 Grace Gryder--10/1
#9 Sagebrush Angel--10/1
#11 Chatty LuLu--6/1
#14 Goodday--10/1
Of the ten horses entering the gate, seven are running for the first time. Several contenders are listed because in a race like this I use betting ranges to determine whether to wager or not on a particular first time starter. If the horse drifts past 20/1, I never bet. So at post time, only a handful of horses will be bettable.
Fillies first timers who are betting possibilities between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1 include #1 Miss Reyna, #4 Ammarie, #7 Grace Gryder, #9 Sagebrush Angel and #14 Goodday. At odds of 3/1 to 19/1, #5 Yoursmynanours is a bet and #6 Paradisi.
Of the horse who have run, second-time starter #3 Ten Churros showed speed in his last but the jockey merely jogged him in the stretch. Owned by workout analyst Bruno De Julio and trained by Jeff Mullins, this one could win at a short price, but I would not bet at less than 3/1.
For the site, since there are so many options here and decisions must be made at post time, I will bet $200 to win on #'s 5, 6, 7 and $100 to win on #'s 1, 4 and 9 provided they fall into the odds ranges.
#1 Miss Reyna--20/1
#3 Ten Churros--2/1
#4 Ammarie--20/1
#5 Yoursmyunanours--12/1
#6 Paradisi--8/1
#7 Grace Gryder--10/1
#9 Sagebrush Angel--10/1
#11 Chatty LuLu--6/1
#14 Goodday--10/1
Of the ten horses entering the gate, seven are running for the first time. Several contenders are listed because in a race like this I use betting ranges to determine whether to wager or not on a particular first time starter. If the horse drifts past 20/1, I never bet. So at post time, only a handful of horses will be bettable.
Fillies first timers who are betting possibilities between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1 include #1 Miss Reyna, #4 Ammarie, #7 Grace Gryder, #9 Sagebrush Angel and #14 Goodday. At odds of 3/1 to 19/1, #5 Yoursmynanours is a bet and #6 Paradisi.
Of the horse who have run, second-time starter #3 Ten Churros showed speed in his last but the jockey merely jogged him in the stretch. Owned by workout analyst Bruno De Julio and trained by Jeff Mullins, this one could win at a short price, but I would not bet at less than 3/1.
For the site, since there are so many options here and decisions must be made at post time, I will bet $200 to win on #'s 5, 6, 7 and $100 to win on #'s 1, 4 and 9 provided they fall into the odds ranges.
Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 25K - 7Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#1 Warren's Jack V.--5/1
#5 Vanaldi--5/2
Median winning Beyer Speed Figure - 74
Both of these horses have shown speed in some races and in others they have run from off the pace with staying power.
In this type of race, horses from off the pace do well unless there is dominant speed in the race. The only horse I can see going wire to wire is #5 Vanaldi. He did not get a chance to run in his last as jockey Michael Baze had him restrained during the first part of the race and he was blocked behind horses throughout the whole stretch run. Draw a line through that one on your racing form. Today, trainer Mike Puype switched to leading rider Rafael Bejarano.
One of the first time starters might surprise, but I cannot bet them. Either #1 Warren's Jack V. or #5 Vanaldi should have the late kick necessary to win, so I will bet them both at 2/1 or more.
On the website, my bets are $650 to win on #5 Vanaldi and $350 to win on #1 Warren's Jack V, both only at 2/1 or more.
#1 Warren's Jack V.--5/1
#5 Vanaldi--5/2
Median winning Beyer Speed Figure - 74
Both of these horses have shown speed in some races and in others they have run from off the pace with staying power.
In this type of race, horses from off the pace do well unless there is dominant speed in the race. The only horse I can see going wire to wire is #5 Vanaldi. He did not get a chance to run in his last as jockey Michael Baze had him restrained during the first part of the race and he was blocked behind horses throughout the whole stretch run. Draw a line through that one on your racing form. Today, trainer Mike Puype switched to leading rider Rafael Bejarano.
One of the first time starters might surprise, but I cannot bet them. Either #1 Warren's Jack V. or #5 Vanaldi should have the late kick necessary to win, so I will bet them both at 2/1 or more.
On the website, my bets are $650 to win on #5 Vanaldi and $350 to win on #1 Warren's Jack V, both only at 2/1 or more.
Results Race 8 Hollywood -- won $420
Betting Results -- wagered $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby, $100 win on #6 Susan's Wildcat, $50 win on #6 Veranda Cafe and $50 win on #8 Evita Argentina.
Total bet--$600
Total collected--$1,020
Net win--$420
Monthly net--$420
Bankroll -- $50,420
8 Evita Argentina 40.80 15.60 7.40
7 Candilejas 4.00 2.80
1 Lippy Rules 3.00
Post Time odds
1 Lippy Rules 2.20
2 Winningdancer 46.50
3 Mad for Candy 64.10
4 Veranda Cafe 6.60
5 Sorry Baby 6.20
6 Susan's Wildcat 15.60
7 Candilejas 2.20
8 Evita Argentina 19.40
10 Brewha Baby 5.60
SCR - Stormy Gigi
SCR - Stardom Bound
Total bet--$600
Total collected--$1,020
Net win--$420
Monthly net--$420
Bankroll -- $50,420
8 Evita Argentina 40.80 15.60 7.40
7 Candilejas 4.00 2.80
1 Lippy Rules 3.00
Post Time odds
1 Lippy Rules 2.20
2 Winningdancer 46.50
3 Mad for Candy 64.10
4 Veranda Cafe 6.60
5 Sorry Baby 6.20
6 Susan's Wildcat 15.60
7 Candilejas 2.20
8 Evita Argentina 19.40
10 Brewha Baby 5.60
SCR - Stormy Gigi
SCR - Stardom Bound
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Race 8 Hollywood MSW -- 2yo -- 5Fs
Contenders------Morning Line
#1 Lippy Rules--3/1
#2 Winning Dancer--20/1
#3 Mad For Candy--20/1
#4 Veranda Cafe--6/1
#5 Sorry Baby----8/1
#6 Susan's Wildcat--15/1
#7 Candilejas--7/2
#8 Evita Argentina--15/1
#10 Brewha Baby--4/1
I am keeping an open mind and playing the odds board as seven of nine of these horses are first-time starters. Lippy Rules got the lead in her first race, but is sure to be an underlay with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure staring everybody in the face. Trainer Jeff Mullins sadles #7 Candilejas who hopped at the beginning of her only start then went 5-wide before finishing second in a 10-horse field at Keeneland. She also figures to be bet too low.
However, Bob Baffert's #5 Sorry Baby, a first-time starter, has strong angles going for it, especially from 7/2 to 9/1. I will spilt my bet between win and place at 10/1 or more. Also, #6 Susan's Wildcat is the type of horse that is a good bet between 7/2 and 19/1.
Listed with odds rangers are other wagering possibilities, which I would bet less on: #2 Winning Dancer at 10/1-19/1, #3 Mad for Candy at 10/1-19/1, #4 Veranda Cafe at 7/2-15/1, #8 Evita Argentina at 7/2 to 19/1 and #10 Brewha Baby at 7/2 to 19/1.
On the website, I will bet $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby if she stays below 10/1, but if she drifts above then $100 win and $100 place. Also, I will bet $100 to win on #6 Susan's Wildcat if she's 7/2 to 19/1. Of these horses, #4, #8, #10, I will bet $50 to win on the two longest prices that are less than 20/1.
#1 Lippy Rules--3/1
#2 Winning Dancer--20/1
#3 Mad For Candy--20/1
#4 Veranda Cafe--6/1
#5 Sorry Baby----8/1
#6 Susan's Wildcat--15/1
#7 Candilejas--7/2
#8 Evita Argentina--15/1
#10 Brewha Baby--4/1
I am keeping an open mind and playing the odds board as seven of nine of these horses are first-time starters. Lippy Rules got the lead in her first race, but is sure to be an underlay with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure staring everybody in the face. Trainer Jeff Mullins sadles #7 Candilejas who hopped at the beginning of her only start then went 5-wide before finishing second in a 10-horse field at Keeneland. She also figures to be bet too low.
However, Bob Baffert's #5 Sorry Baby, a first-time starter, has strong angles going for it, especially from 7/2 to 9/1. I will spilt my bet between win and place at 10/1 or more. Also, #6 Susan's Wildcat is the type of horse that is a good bet between 7/2 and 19/1.
Listed with odds rangers are other wagering possibilities, which I would bet less on: #2 Winning Dancer at 10/1-19/1, #3 Mad for Candy at 10/1-19/1, #4 Veranda Cafe at 7/2-15/1, #8 Evita Argentina at 7/2 to 19/1 and #10 Brewha Baby at 7/2 to 19/1.
On the website, I will bet $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby if she stays below 10/1, but if she drifts above then $100 win and $100 place. Also, I will bet $100 to win on #6 Susan's Wildcat if she's 7/2 to 19/1. Of these horses, #4, #8, #10, I will bet $50 to win on the two longest prices that are less than 20/1.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Results Race 9 Hollywood
9 Wendoffer 6.80 4.20 3.00
8 Victory Dancer 7.40 4.80
10 Steal My Charm 11.00
8 Victory Dancer 7.40 4.80
10 Steal My Charm 11.00
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Race 9 -- Hollywood -- MSW -- 5Fs
Contenders
#2 Tammy's Luck
#4 Mischabel
#7 Chilliwack
#8 Victory Dancer
#9 Wendoffer
Many of these 2-year-old sprints are won by the horse who gets the early lead. On May 21, Mischabel and Wendoffer dueled with Mischabel caving in at the top of the stretch. Either of the two look like they will be ahead after a quarter mile, but Chilliwack could take over after a half mile.
Since none of those three have dominant speed, a good bet is #8 Victory Dancer. The Bob Baffert-trained filly has been working out well and records show that Bob is an excellent play with this type of horse. The Richard Matlow first timer #2 Tammy's Luck also has been strong in the morning and is an OK bet at 7/2 or better.
My plan is to play #8 Victory Dancer at 5/2 or more, but to reduce my bet if she is 10/1 or better. Depending on what Victory Dancer goes off at, I will choose a back-up horse among the remaining contenders based on their odds. I am leaning toward Tammy's Luck and Chilliwack.
#2 Tammy's Luck
#4 Mischabel
#7 Chilliwack
#8 Victory Dancer
#9 Wendoffer
Many of these 2-year-old sprints are won by the horse who gets the early lead. On May 21, Mischabel and Wendoffer dueled with Mischabel caving in at the top of the stretch. Either of the two look like they will be ahead after a quarter mile, but Chilliwack could take over after a half mile.
Since none of those three have dominant speed, a good bet is #8 Victory Dancer. The Bob Baffert-trained filly has been working out well and records show that Bob is an excellent play with this type of horse. The Richard Matlow first timer #2 Tammy's Luck also has been strong in the morning and is an OK bet at 7/2 or better.
My plan is to play #8 Victory Dancer at 5/2 or more, but to reduce my bet if she is 10/1 or better. Depending on what Victory Dancer goes off at, I will choose a back-up horse among the remaining contenders based on their odds. I am leaning toward Tammy's Luck and Chilliwack.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Hollywood Results -- Friday, June 20
Race 2
2 Pass Me the Sugar 9.20 5.20 4.40
5 Our Storm 6.80 5.80
11 Bella Maderia 22.80
Race 4
7 Magic Mike 18.60 9.20 6.00
12 Camo 16.60 8.20
15 Maj. Trouble 6.60
Race 8
3 Freebiehadthemoves 10.80 5.20 4.00
10 My Sister Laureen 4.80 3.00
6 Shesalittlepistol 4.60
2 Pass Me the Sugar 9.20 5.20 4.40
5 Our Storm 6.80 5.80
11 Bella Maderia 22.80
Race 4
7 Magic Mike 18.60 9.20 6.00
12 Camo 16.60 8.20
15 Maj. Trouble 6.60
Race 8
3 Freebiehadthemoves 10.80 5.20 4.00
10 My Sister Laureen 4.80 3.00
6 Shesalittlepistol 4.60
Race 8 Hollywood -- MDN25K -- 6F
Contenders
#1 Alotta Wild
#3 Freebiehadthemoves
#4 Mrs. Tiz
#6 Shesalittlepistol
#10 My Sister Laureen
Alotta Wild got slammed by another horse at the top of the stretch when she ran a 36 Beyer last time. But it didn't look like she was going to win anyway and jockey Joe Talamo is now riding layoff horse Shesalittlepistol. However, by duplicating any of her previous two races, Alotta Wild could win.
I think 5/2 would be a fair price.
I can't bet the first-time starters #2 Box Office Fever, #7 It's Time to Shine, or #11 She's Hot to Trot. But second timer Freebiehadthemoves #3 showed OK speed in her first race and the trainer's only two wins were apparently with horses running for the second time.
The odds on recent layoff horses Mrs. Tiz, #4, and Shesalittlepistol, #6, need to be between 2/1 and 10/1 before a profitable angle opens up.
The #10 My Sister Laureen has the best speed and she'd be a good bet at 5/1.
As I look at the toteboard with 16 minutes to post, Alotta Wild is being bet to 8/5 and My Sister Laureen is 3/1. The value looks like Freebiehadthemoves at 8/1, Mrs. Tiz and Shesalittlepistol, both at 6/1.
#1 Alotta Wild
#3 Freebiehadthemoves
#4 Mrs. Tiz
#6 Shesalittlepistol
#10 My Sister Laureen
Alotta Wild got slammed by another horse at the top of the stretch when she ran a 36 Beyer last time. But it didn't look like she was going to win anyway and jockey Joe Talamo is now riding layoff horse Shesalittlepistol. However, by duplicating any of her previous two races, Alotta Wild could win.
I think 5/2 would be a fair price.
I can't bet the first-time starters #2 Box Office Fever, #7 It's Time to Shine, or #11 She's Hot to Trot. But second timer Freebiehadthemoves #3 showed OK speed in her first race and the trainer's only two wins were apparently with horses running for the second time.
The odds on recent layoff horses Mrs. Tiz, #4, and Shesalittlepistol, #6, need to be between 2/1 and 10/1 before a profitable angle opens up.
The #10 My Sister Laureen has the best speed and she'd be a good bet at 5/1.
As I look at the toteboard with 16 minutes to post, Alotta Wild is being bet to 8/5 and My Sister Laureen is 3/1. The value looks like Freebiehadthemoves at 8/1, Mrs. Tiz and Shesalittlepistol, both at 6/1.
Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 25K - 7Fs
In this race, #6 Stag on the Run, the favorite looks strong, but must be 2/1 for a bet. Others who could win at at a price include second timers #13 No Thinkin Allowed and #14 Fire Scout. Also, #15 Maj. Trouble is a good bet at long odds.
Race 2 Hollywood - MDN 25K - 6Fs
The average winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is 69.
This race is wide open, but I have a few positive angles to go on.
Two horses coming off layoffs, #2 Pass Me the Sugar and #5 Our Storm, have good speed and strong angles going for them.
First time starters don't usually win these types of races, but trainer Dan Hendricks has been successful when his horses have been working out well. And #1 Stariz Mark has four good workouts on his tab.
Non contenders include numbers 3, 6, 7, 9 and 11.
Spring Catch, #8, showed speed off an 11-month layoff then came back to miss by 3/4 of a length from off the pace. Not many horses are that versatile. Finally, the far outside runner Serbiana, #12, got pinballed at the start last time and burst to the lead when she got running room. She ran a 64 and could win.
I won't consider Spring Catch if she's less than 5/2 and Serbiana must be at least 4/1 for a bet. I will definately bet #5 Our Storm and #2 Pass Me the Sugar if they are 2/1 or more. I will only bet a small amount on Stariz Mark if he is better than 8/1.
This race is wide open, but I have a few positive angles to go on.
Two horses coming off layoffs, #2 Pass Me the Sugar and #5 Our Storm, have good speed and strong angles going for them.
First time starters don't usually win these types of races, but trainer Dan Hendricks has been successful when his horses have been working out well. And #1 Stariz Mark has four good workouts on his tab.
Non contenders include numbers 3, 6, 7, 9 and 11.
Spring Catch, #8, showed speed off an 11-month layoff then came back to miss by 3/4 of a length from off the pace. Not many horses are that versatile. Finally, the far outside runner Serbiana, #12, got pinballed at the start last time and burst to the lead when she got running room. She ran a 64 and could win.
I won't consider Spring Catch if she's less than 5/2 and Serbiana must be at least 4/1 for a bet. I will definately bet #5 Our Storm and #2 Pass Me the Sugar if they are 2/1 or more. I will only bet a small amount on Stariz Mark if he is better than 8/1.
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