None of the first time starters ran early with Stormy Game so he breezed to an easy lead and had plenty left in the tank for the stretch. I lost $400 on #7 Warrington at 7/2 and $300 on #2 Son of Dionisi at 4/1.
Total bet--$700
Total net--($700)
Monthly bankroll--($2,080)
Total bankroll--$47,920
Results
8 Stormy Game----$6.80 $3.80 $2.80
4 Warren's Moonkross---$3.00 $2.10
7 Warrington-----------------$2.60
Post time odds
2 Son of Dionisi--4.00
3 Sur Brio--20.30
4 Warren's Moonkross--2.00
5 Highly Unusual--38.20
6 Bay Zing--13.70
7 Warrington--3.50
8 Stormy Game--2.40
SCR - Mort Robbins
Blog moved to www.maidenking.wordpress.com
See you there!
Monday, June 30, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Race 9 Hollywood -- MSW -- 5.5Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#1 Massone--9/2
#6 Street Hero--12/1
#7 S.S. Stone--6/1
#9 Loyal Son--10/1
#10 Del Conte--8/1
#11 Nochangenweather--5/1
#12 Speight the Halo--4/1
The early speed in here is #11 Nochangenweather who led for the first half of his last race before tiring to lose by 3. The owners paid $400,000 for this colt who was bet to 7/2 versus nine others in his debut and 4/1 also in a field of 10 in his second race. Should have the early lead, which is important in these races and 5/1 would be a good price. The Ron McAnally-trained Massone, #1, looked strong closing well once he got untracked in his debut.
Second-time starters trained by Richard Matlow and Bob Baffert always have to be considered. They are sending out #9 Loyal Son and #10 Del Conte respectively and either could dramatically improve to win this race.
Of the first timers running, the angles supporting #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone are stronger than those backing #5 Genki and #12 Speight the Halo. Any of them would be OK from 10/1 to 19/1, but I would bet much less on numbers 5 and 12.
On the site, I will bet $200 to win on numbers #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone at 7/2 to 19/1. I will also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather if he's 5/1 or more. If not, then I'll bet $100 on #9 Loyal Son and $100 on #10 Del Conte, provided they are each 8/1 or greater.
#1 Massone--9/2
#6 Street Hero--12/1
#7 S.S. Stone--6/1
#9 Loyal Son--10/1
#10 Del Conte--8/1
#11 Nochangenweather--5/1
#12 Speight the Halo--4/1
The early speed in here is #11 Nochangenweather who led for the first half of his last race before tiring to lose by 3. The owners paid $400,000 for this colt who was bet to 7/2 versus nine others in his debut and 4/1 also in a field of 10 in his second race. Should have the early lead, which is important in these races and 5/1 would be a good price. The Ron McAnally-trained Massone, #1, looked strong closing well once he got untracked in his debut.
Second-time starters trained by Richard Matlow and Bob Baffert always have to be considered. They are sending out #9 Loyal Son and #10 Del Conte respectively and either could dramatically improve to win this race.
Of the first timers running, the angles supporting #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone are stronger than those backing #5 Genki and #12 Speight the Halo. Any of them would be OK from 10/1 to 19/1, but I would bet much less on numbers 5 and 12.
On the site, I will bet $200 to win on numbers #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone at 7/2 to 19/1. I will also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather if he's 5/1 or more. If not, then I'll bet $100 on #9 Loyal Son and $100 on #10 Del Conte, provided they are each 8/1 or greater.
Race 6 Hollywood Park -- MDN $40K -- 7Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#1 Bigum--7/2
#2 Larrylarrylarry--20/1
#5 Ace High Hand--5/2
#7 Rare Chant--10/1
Although coming out of a route race, #7 Rare Chant is the dominant speed. Trained by Rafael Becerra, he's running his fourth race back from a long layoff and has been showing speed in routes on both the main track and grass course. He looks like he could win at a good price.
Both #1 Bigum and #5 Ace High Hand have the right profile for this race. Ace High Hand ran six previous times in Maiden Special Weight races where he was bet to 3/1 or less five times. In his last race, jockey Mike Smith breezed him in the stretch while running a 71 so you can throw that race out. It's his third race back from a long layoff, so Ace High Hand might be sitting on a big one.
Ridden by Garrett Gomez, #1 Bigum is taking his 18th shot at maidens. However, in his last nine races he's run Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to high seventies and ran an 81 in his last.
The Jerry Fanning-trained Larrylarrylarry, #2, could surprise as it looked like the jockey merely breezed him in his debut after being bet to 7/1 and working out well leading up to the race. At 20/1, he might be worth a few bucks.
I will bet $500 on Ace High Hand at 2/1 or more. But if he's bet to 9/5 or less I'll forget Ace High Hand and put $300 on Bigum instead at 5/2 or higher. Also, I'm putting $250 on #7 Rare Chant and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry.
#1 Bigum--7/2
#2 Larrylarrylarry--20/1
#5 Ace High Hand--5/2
#7 Rare Chant--10/1
Although coming out of a route race, #7 Rare Chant is the dominant speed. Trained by Rafael Becerra, he's running his fourth race back from a long layoff and has been showing speed in routes on both the main track and grass course. He looks like he could win at a good price.
Both #1 Bigum and #5 Ace High Hand have the right profile for this race. Ace High Hand ran six previous times in Maiden Special Weight races where he was bet to 3/1 or less five times. In his last race, jockey Mike Smith breezed him in the stretch while running a 71 so you can throw that race out. It's his third race back from a long layoff, so Ace High Hand might be sitting on a big one.
Ridden by Garrett Gomez, #1 Bigum is taking his 18th shot at maidens. However, in his last nine races he's run Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to high seventies and ran an 81 in his last.
The Jerry Fanning-trained Larrylarrylarry, #2, could surprise as it looked like the jockey merely breezed him in his debut after being bet to 7/1 and working out well leading up to the race. At 20/1, he might be worth a few bucks.
I will bet $500 on Ace High Hand at 2/1 or more. But if he's bet to 9/5 or less I'll forget Ace High Hand and put $300 on Bigum instead at 5/2 or higher. Also, I'm putting $250 on #7 Rare Chant and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry.
Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 40K -- 6.5Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#2 Son of Dionisi--4/1
#4 Warren's Moonkross--3/1
#7 Warrington--5/1
#8 Stormy Game--5/2
Unless one of the three first-time starters runs with #8 Stormy Game, he figures to get an easy lead without serious pressure developing until they reach the half mile. That's when #2 Son of Dionisi and #7 Warrington should be making their moves. In the stretch, #4 Warren's Moonkross has the best late run.
On June 8, #2 Son of Dionisi made a decent move on the turn while four paths wide. On that day, trainer Gary Mandella was brining him off a 16-month layoff so he probably wasn't at his best. This horse has promise because he ran an 81 Beyer Speed Figures in his debut, which is the best in this field.
On May 9, #7 Warrington showed decent early speed while running with a field of Maiden Special Weights, then was not asked in the stretch while running a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. I think he can run the 82 necessary to win this race.
Finally, #4 Warren's Moonkross was catching the leaders in the stretch last time when he lost by 3 lengths.
On the site, I will play $400 to win on the #7 Warrington at 3/1 or more and $300 on whoever goes off at a longer price between #2 Son of Dionisi and #4 Warren's Moonkross.
#2 Son of Dionisi--4/1
#4 Warren's Moonkross--3/1
#7 Warrington--5/1
#8 Stormy Game--5/2
Unless one of the three first-time starters runs with #8 Stormy Game, he figures to get an easy lead without serious pressure developing until they reach the half mile. That's when #2 Son of Dionisi and #7 Warrington should be making their moves. In the stretch, #4 Warren's Moonkross has the best late run.
On June 8, #2 Son of Dionisi made a decent move on the turn while four paths wide. On that day, trainer Gary Mandella was brining him off a 16-month layoff so he probably wasn't at his best. This horse has promise because he ran an 81 Beyer Speed Figures in his debut, which is the best in this field.
On May 9, #7 Warrington showed decent early speed while running with a field of Maiden Special Weights, then was not asked in the stretch while running a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. I think he can run the 82 necessary to win this race.
Finally, #4 Warren's Moonkross was catching the leaders in the stretch last time when he lost by 3 lengths.
On the site, I will play $400 to win on the #7 Warrington at 3/1 or more and $300 on whoever goes off at a longer price between #2 Son of Dionisi and #4 Warren's Moonkross.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Results Race 8 Hollywood -- lost $800
Bet an army of first timers, but none of them fired. Ten Churros only ran for half of the race in his debut, but put it all together on Thursday. I am sure owner/handicapper Bruno DeJulio keyed him in the Pick 6, which had a $700,000 carryover. I bet $200 on #5 Yoursmynanours, #6 Paradisi and #7 Grace Gryder. Also had $100 on #4 Ammarie and #9 Sagebrush Angel.
Total bet--$800
Total net--($800)
Monthly bankroll--($1380)
Bankroll--$48,620
Results
3 Ten Churros-----$6.40 $3.80 $2.60
14 O Goodday----------- $4.80 $3.00
11 Chatty LuLu----------------$2.80
Post time odds
1 Miss Reyna--26.10
2 Can Can Girl--16.90
3 Ten Churros--2.20
4 Ammarie--19.20
5 Yoursmynanours--14.50
6 Paradisi--6.80
7 Grace Gryder--18.30
9 Sagebrush Angel--19.90
11 Chatty Lulu--3.60
14 0 Goodday--3.40
SCR Soup Deeohdouble
SCR Shootinforthestarz
SCR Bajan Kitty
SCR Lovely Lolly
SCR Monica's Edge
Total bet--$800
Total net--($800)
Monthly bankroll--($1380)
Bankroll--$48,620
Results
3 Ten Churros-----$6.40 $3.80 $2.60
14 O Goodday----------- $4.80 $3.00
11 Chatty LuLu----------------$2.80
Post time odds
1 Miss Reyna--26.10
2 Can Can Girl--16.90
3 Ten Churros--2.20
4 Ammarie--19.20
5 Yoursmynanours--14.50
6 Paradisi--6.80
7 Grace Gryder--18.30
9 Sagebrush Angel--19.90
11 Chatty Lulu--3.60
14 0 Goodday--3.40
SCR Soup Deeohdouble
SCR Shootinforthestarz
SCR Bajan Kitty
SCR Lovely Lolly
SCR Monica's Edge
Results Race 4 Hollywood -- lost $1,000
Wagered $650 on #5 Vanaldi and #350 on #1 Warren's Jack V., who were both beaten by late-runner #3 Cold Prince.
Total bet--$1,000
Total net--($1,000)
Monthly bankroll--($580)
Bankroll--$49,420
Results
3 Cold Prince----$11.20 $4.40 $2.80
1 Warren's Jack V.------$4.40 $3.00
5 Vanaldi---------------------$2.40
Post time odds
1 Warren's Jack V.--3.70
2 Bean Who--40.60
3 Cold Prince--4.60
4 Heywatchulookingat--32.00
5 Vanaldi--2.10
8 Black Magic--14.50
9 Deputy Prize--4.50
10 Quiet Revolution--4.70
SCR - Holy Mystery
SCR - Strong Suggestion
Total bet--$1,000
Total net--($1,000)
Monthly bankroll--($580)
Bankroll--$49,420
Results
3 Cold Prince----$11.20 $4.40 $2.80
1 Warren's Jack V.------$4.40 $3.00
5 Vanaldi---------------------$2.40
Post time odds
1 Warren's Jack V.--3.70
2 Bean Who--40.60
3 Cold Prince--4.60
4 Heywatchulookingat--32.00
5 Vanaldi--2.10
8 Black Magic--14.50
9 Deputy Prize--4.50
10 Quiet Revolution--4.70
SCR - Holy Mystery
SCR - Strong Suggestion
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Race 8 Hollywood -- MDN 40K -- 5Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#1 Miss Reyna--20/1
#3 Ten Churros--2/1
#4 Ammarie--20/1
#5 Yoursmyunanours--12/1
#6 Paradisi--8/1
#7 Grace Gryder--10/1
#9 Sagebrush Angel--10/1
#11 Chatty LuLu--6/1
#14 Goodday--10/1
Of the ten horses entering the gate, seven are running for the first time. Several contenders are listed because in a race like this I use betting ranges to determine whether to wager or not on a particular first time starter. If the horse drifts past 20/1, I never bet. So at post time, only a handful of horses will be bettable.
Fillies first timers who are betting possibilities between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1 include #1 Miss Reyna, #4 Ammarie, #7 Grace Gryder, #9 Sagebrush Angel and #14 Goodday. At odds of 3/1 to 19/1, #5 Yoursmynanours is a bet and #6 Paradisi.
Of the horse who have run, second-time starter #3 Ten Churros showed speed in his last but the jockey merely jogged him in the stretch. Owned by workout analyst Bruno De Julio and trained by Jeff Mullins, this one could win at a short price, but I would not bet at less than 3/1.
For the site, since there are so many options here and decisions must be made at post time, I will bet $200 to win on #'s 5, 6, 7 and $100 to win on #'s 1, 4 and 9 provided they fall into the odds ranges.
#1 Miss Reyna--20/1
#3 Ten Churros--2/1
#4 Ammarie--20/1
#5 Yoursmyunanours--12/1
#6 Paradisi--8/1
#7 Grace Gryder--10/1
#9 Sagebrush Angel--10/1
#11 Chatty LuLu--6/1
#14 Goodday--10/1
Of the ten horses entering the gate, seven are running for the first time. Several contenders are listed because in a race like this I use betting ranges to determine whether to wager or not on a particular first time starter. If the horse drifts past 20/1, I never bet. So at post time, only a handful of horses will be bettable.
Fillies first timers who are betting possibilities between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1 include #1 Miss Reyna, #4 Ammarie, #7 Grace Gryder, #9 Sagebrush Angel and #14 Goodday. At odds of 3/1 to 19/1, #5 Yoursmynanours is a bet and #6 Paradisi.
Of the horse who have run, second-time starter #3 Ten Churros showed speed in his last but the jockey merely jogged him in the stretch. Owned by workout analyst Bruno De Julio and trained by Jeff Mullins, this one could win at a short price, but I would not bet at less than 3/1.
For the site, since there are so many options here and decisions must be made at post time, I will bet $200 to win on #'s 5, 6, 7 and $100 to win on #'s 1, 4 and 9 provided they fall into the odds ranges.
Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 25K - 7Fs
Contenders--Morning Line
#1 Warren's Jack V.--5/1
#5 Vanaldi--5/2
Median winning Beyer Speed Figure - 74
Both of these horses have shown speed in some races and in others they have run from off the pace with staying power.
In this type of race, horses from off the pace do well unless there is dominant speed in the race. The only horse I can see going wire to wire is #5 Vanaldi. He did not get a chance to run in his last as jockey Michael Baze had him restrained during the first part of the race and he was blocked behind horses throughout the whole stretch run. Draw a line through that one on your racing form. Today, trainer Mike Puype switched to leading rider Rafael Bejarano.
One of the first time starters might surprise, but I cannot bet them. Either #1 Warren's Jack V. or #5 Vanaldi should have the late kick necessary to win, so I will bet them both at 2/1 or more.
On the website, my bets are $650 to win on #5 Vanaldi and $350 to win on #1 Warren's Jack V, both only at 2/1 or more.
#1 Warren's Jack V.--5/1
#5 Vanaldi--5/2
Median winning Beyer Speed Figure - 74
Both of these horses have shown speed in some races and in others they have run from off the pace with staying power.
In this type of race, horses from off the pace do well unless there is dominant speed in the race. The only horse I can see going wire to wire is #5 Vanaldi. He did not get a chance to run in his last as jockey Michael Baze had him restrained during the first part of the race and he was blocked behind horses throughout the whole stretch run. Draw a line through that one on your racing form. Today, trainer Mike Puype switched to leading rider Rafael Bejarano.
One of the first time starters might surprise, but I cannot bet them. Either #1 Warren's Jack V. or #5 Vanaldi should have the late kick necessary to win, so I will bet them both at 2/1 or more.
On the website, my bets are $650 to win on #5 Vanaldi and $350 to win on #1 Warren's Jack V, both only at 2/1 or more.
Results Race 8 Hollywood -- won $420
Betting Results -- wagered $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby, $100 win on #6 Susan's Wildcat, $50 win on #6 Veranda Cafe and $50 win on #8 Evita Argentina.
Total bet--$600
Total collected--$1,020
Net win--$420
Monthly net--$420
Bankroll -- $50,420
8 Evita Argentina 40.80 15.60 7.40
7 Candilejas 4.00 2.80
1 Lippy Rules 3.00
Post Time odds
1 Lippy Rules 2.20
2 Winningdancer 46.50
3 Mad for Candy 64.10
4 Veranda Cafe 6.60
5 Sorry Baby 6.20
6 Susan's Wildcat 15.60
7 Candilejas 2.20
8 Evita Argentina 19.40
10 Brewha Baby 5.60
SCR - Stormy Gigi
SCR - Stardom Bound
Total bet--$600
Total collected--$1,020
Net win--$420
Monthly net--$420
Bankroll -- $50,420
8 Evita Argentina 40.80 15.60 7.40
7 Candilejas 4.00 2.80
1 Lippy Rules 3.00
Post Time odds
1 Lippy Rules 2.20
2 Winningdancer 46.50
3 Mad for Candy 64.10
4 Veranda Cafe 6.60
5 Sorry Baby 6.20
6 Susan's Wildcat 15.60
7 Candilejas 2.20
8 Evita Argentina 19.40
10 Brewha Baby 5.60
SCR - Stormy Gigi
SCR - Stardom Bound
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Race 8 Hollywood MSW -- 2yo -- 5Fs
Contenders------Morning Line
#1 Lippy Rules--3/1
#2 Winning Dancer--20/1
#3 Mad For Candy--20/1
#4 Veranda Cafe--6/1
#5 Sorry Baby----8/1
#6 Susan's Wildcat--15/1
#7 Candilejas--7/2
#8 Evita Argentina--15/1
#10 Brewha Baby--4/1
I am keeping an open mind and playing the odds board as seven of nine of these horses are first-time starters. Lippy Rules got the lead in her first race, but is sure to be an underlay with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure staring everybody in the face. Trainer Jeff Mullins sadles #7 Candilejas who hopped at the beginning of her only start then went 5-wide before finishing second in a 10-horse field at Keeneland. She also figures to be bet too low.
However, Bob Baffert's #5 Sorry Baby, a first-time starter, has strong angles going for it, especially from 7/2 to 9/1. I will spilt my bet between win and place at 10/1 or more. Also, #6 Susan's Wildcat is the type of horse that is a good bet between 7/2 and 19/1.
Listed with odds rangers are other wagering possibilities, which I would bet less on: #2 Winning Dancer at 10/1-19/1, #3 Mad for Candy at 10/1-19/1, #4 Veranda Cafe at 7/2-15/1, #8 Evita Argentina at 7/2 to 19/1 and #10 Brewha Baby at 7/2 to 19/1.
On the website, I will bet $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby if she stays below 10/1, but if she drifts above then $100 win and $100 place. Also, I will bet $100 to win on #6 Susan's Wildcat if she's 7/2 to 19/1. Of these horses, #4, #8, #10, I will bet $50 to win on the two longest prices that are less than 20/1.
#1 Lippy Rules--3/1
#2 Winning Dancer--20/1
#3 Mad For Candy--20/1
#4 Veranda Cafe--6/1
#5 Sorry Baby----8/1
#6 Susan's Wildcat--15/1
#7 Candilejas--7/2
#8 Evita Argentina--15/1
#10 Brewha Baby--4/1
I am keeping an open mind and playing the odds board as seven of nine of these horses are first-time starters. Lippy Rules got the lead in her first race, but is sure to be an underlay with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure staring everybody in the face. Trainer Jeff Mullins sadles #7 Candilejas who hopped at the beginning of her only start then went 5-wide before finishing second in a 10-horse field at Keeneland. She also figures to be bet too low.
However, Bob Baffert's #5 Sorry Baby, a first-time starter, has strong angles going for it, especially from 7/2 to 9/1. I will spilt my bet between win and place at 10/1 or more. Also, #6 Susan's Wildcat is the type of horse that is a good bet between 7/2 and 19/1.
Listed with odds rangers are other wagering possibilities, which I would bet less on: #2 Winning Dancer at 10/1-19/1, #3 Mad for Candy at 10/1-19/1, #4 Veranda Cafe at 7/2-15/1, #8 Evita Argentina at 7/2 to 19/1 and #10 Brewha Baby at 7/2 to 19/1.
On the website, I will bet $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby if she stays below 10/1, but if she drifts above then $100 win and $100 place. Also, I will bet $100 to win on #6 Susan's Wildcat if she's 7/2 to 19/1. Of these horses, #4, #8, #10, I will bet $50 to win on the two longest prices that are less than 20/1.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Results Race 9 Hollywood
9 Wendoffer 6.80 4.20 3.00
8 Victory Dancer 7.40 4.80
10 Steal My Charm 11.00
8 Victory Dancer 7.40 4.80
10 Steal My Charm 11.00
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Race 9 -- Hollywood -- MSW -- 5Fs
Contenders
#2 Tammy's Luck
#4 Mischabel
#7 Chilliwack
#8 Victory Dancer
#9 Wendoffer
Many of these 2-year-old sprints are won by the horse who gets the early lead. On May 21, Mischabel and Wendoffer dueled with Mischabel caving in at the top of the stretch. Either of the two look like they will be ahead after a quarter mile, but Chilliwack could take over after a half mile.
Since none of those three have dominant speed, a good bet is #8 Victory Dancer. The Bob Baffert-trained filly has been working out well and records show that Bob is an excellent play with this type of horse. The Richard Matlow first timer #2 Tammy's Luck also has been strong in the morning and is an OK bet at 7/2 or better.
My plan is to play #8 Victory Dancer at 5/2 or more, but to reduce my bet if she is 10/1 or better. Depending on what Victory Dancer goes off at, I will choose a back-up horse among the remaining contenders based on their odds. I am leaning toward Tammy's Luck and Chilliwack.
#2 Tammy's Luck
#4 Mischabel
#7 Chilliwack
#8 Victory Dancer
#9 Wendoffer
Many of these 2-year-old sprints are won by the horse who gets the early lead. On May 21, Mischabel and Wendoffer dueled with Mischabel caving in at the top of the stretch. Either of the two look like they will be ahead after a quarter mile, but Chilliwack could take over after a half mile.
Since none of those three have dominant speed, a good bet is #8 Victory Dancer. The Bob Baffert-trained filly has been working out well and records show that Bob is an excellent play with this type of horse. The Richard Matlow first timer #2 Tammy's Luck also has been strong in the morning and is an OK bet at 7/2 or better.
My plan is to play #8 Victory Dancer at 5/2 or more, but to reduce my bet if she is 10/1 or better. Depending on what Victory Dancer goes off at, I will choose a back-up horse among the remaining contenders based on their odds. I am leaning toward Tammy's Luck and Chilliwack.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Hollywood Results -- Friday, June 20
Race 2
2 Pass Me the Sugar 9.20 5.20 4.40
5 Our Storm 6.80 5.80
11 Bella Maderia 22.80
Race 4
7 Magic Mike 18.60 9.20 6.00
12 Camo 16.60 8.20
15 Maj. Trouble 6.60
Race 8
3 Freebiehadthemoves 10.80 5.20 4.00
10 My Sister Laureen 4.80 3.00
6 Shesalittlepistol 4.60
2 Pass Me the Sugar 9.20 5.20 4.40
5 Our Storm 6.80 5.80
11 Bella Maderia 22.80
Race 4
7 Magic Mike 18.60 9.20 6.00
12 Camo 16.60 8.20
15 Maj. Trouble 6.60
Race 8
3 Freebiehadthemoves 10.80 5.20 4.00
10 My Sister Laureen 4.80 3.00
6 Shesalittlepistol 4.60
Race 8 Hollywood -- MDN25K -- 6F
Contenders
#1 Alotta Wild
#3 Freebiehadthemoves
#4 Mrs. Tiz
#6 Shesalittlepistol
#10 My Sister Laureen
Alotta Wild got slammed by another horse at the top of the stretch when she ran a 36 Beyer last time. But it didn't look like she was going to win anyway and jockey Joe Talamo is now riding layoff horse Shesalittlepistol. However, by duplicating any of her previous two races, Alotta Wild could win.
I think 5/2 would be a fair price.
I can't bet the first-time starters #2 Box Office Fever, #7 It's Time to Shine, or #11 She's Hot to Trot. But second timer Freebiehadthemoves #3 showed OK speed in her first race and the trainer's only two wins were apparently with horses running for the second time.
The odds on recent layoff horses Mrs. Tiz, #4, and Shesalittlepistol, #6, need to be between 2/1 and 10/1 before a profitable angle opens up.
The #10 My Sister Laureen has the best speed and she'd be a good bet at 5/1.
As I look at the toteboard with 16 minutes to post, Alotta Wild is being bet to 8/5 and My Sister Laureen is 3/1. The value looks like Freebiehadthemoves at 8/1, Mrs. Tiz and Shesalittlepistol, both at 6/1.
#1 Alotta Wild
#3 Freebiehadthemoves
#4 Mrs. Tiz
#6 Shesalittlepistol
#10 My Sister Laureen
Alotta Wild got slammed by another horse at the top of the stretch when she ran a 36 Beyer last time. But it didn't look like she was going to win anyway and jockey Joe Talamo is now riding layoff horse Shesalittlepistol. However, by duplicating any of her previous two races, Alotta Wild could win.
I think 5/2 would be a fair price.
I can't bet the first-time starters #2 Box Office Fever, #7 It's Time to Shine, or #11 She's Hot to Trot. But second timer Freebiehadthemoves #3 showed OK speed in her first race and the trainer's only two wins were apparently with horses running for the second time.
The odds on recent layoff horses Mrs. Tiz, #4, and Shesalittlepistol, #6, need to be between 2/1 and 10/1 before a profitable angle opens up.
The #10 My Sister Laureen has the best speed and she'd be a good bet at 5/1.
As I look at the toteboard with 16 minutes to post, Alotta Wild is being bet to 8/5 and My Sister Laureen is 3/1. The value looks like Freebiehadthemoves at 8/1, Mrs. Tiz and Shesalittlepistol, both at 6/1.
Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 25K - 7Fs
In this race, #6 Stag on the Run, the favorite looks strong, but must be 2/1 for a bet. Others who could win at at a price include second timers #13 No Thinkin Allowed and #14 Fire Scout. Also, #15 Maj. Trouble is a good bet at long odds.
Race 2 Hollywood - MDN 25K - 6Fs
The average winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is 69.
This race is wide open, but I have a few positive angles to go on.
Two horses coming off layoffs, #2 Pass Me the Sugar and #5 Our Storm, have good speed and strong angles going for them.
First time starters don't usually win these types of races, but trainer Dan Hendricks has been successful when his horses have been working out well. And #1 Stariz Mark has four good workouts on his tab.
Non contenders include numbers 3, 6, 7, 9 and 11.
Spring Catch, #8, showed speed off an 11-month layoff then came back to miss by 3/4 of a length from off the pace. Not many horses are that versatile. Finally, the far outside runner Serbiana, #12, got pinballed at the start last time and burst to the lead when she got running room. She ran a 64 and could win.
I won't consider Spring Catch if she's less than 5/2 and Serbiana must be at least 4/1 for a bet. I will definately bet #5 Our Storm and #2 Pass Me the Sugar if they are 2/1 or more. I will only bet a small amount on Stariz Mark if he is better than 8/1.
This race is wide open, but I have a few positive angles to go on.
Two horses coming off layoffs, #2 Pass Me the Sugar and #5 Our Storm, have good speed and strong angles going for them.
First time starters don't usually win these types of races, but trainer Dan Hendricks has been successful when his horses have been working out well. And #1 Stariz Mark has four good workouts on his tab.
Non contenders include numbers 3, 6, 7, 9 and 11.
Spring Catch, #8, showed speed off an 11-month layoff then came back to miss by 3/4 of a length from off the pace. Not many horses are that versatile. Finally, the far outside runner Serbiana, #12, got pinballed at the start last time and burst to the lead when she got running room. She ran a 64 and could win.
I won't consider Spring Catch if she's less than 5/2 and Serbiana must be at least 4/1 for a bet. I will definately bet #5 Our Storm and #2 Pass Me the Sugar if they are 2/1 or more. I will only bet a small amount on Stariz Mark if he is better than 8/1.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Big horse at a small price? No thank you.
Here's a good bet: Big Brown will lose.
Maybe he won't lose the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, but sometime between now and August, he will lose.
Cigar lost. Smarty Jones lost. And War Emblem lost. They all lose at one time or another.
Sometime this year, maybe in the Belmont, the Haskell or the Travers -- or it could be on Saturday -- a field of of 3-year-olds will roar down the stretch, and the racetrack crowd will become silent as people realize that Big Brown isn't running his race. That the king is being dethroned.
When it's over, horseplayers will blankly stare at each other in the same way pre-2004 Red Sox fans did after the last game of every season.
The racing crowd will look contemptuously at the jockey and trainer celebrating in the winner's circle, wondering how they could be so happy at such a depressing moment. And at the press conference that follows, the connections will practically apologize for winning and spoiling every one's day.
It's happened too many times before for me to believe that it won't happen again. Public handicappers will compare Big Brown to Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed -- in the same way young NBA players are compared to Michael Jordan.
But greatness doesn't come around much and it's always proven and never anointed.
I can hear Hank Goldberg now telling America that Big Brown ran one of the most impressive Kentucky Derby's in recent history. And that the real race in the Preakness is for second place.
But, Hank, what about the two-week layoff? What about the bad feet? What about a bounce? Don't you know how fragile horses are? How do we know he's 100 percent?
Hank might breeze through the negatives, but he'll conclude that Big Brown is just too good. And people will believe him, partly because they saw the Derby with their own eyes. They'll think 'how can a great horse like Big Brown lose to one of those other bums?' Nobody will be able to find anybody who is rooting against, or betting against Big Brown. The ones who do bet against him, aren't talking, and probably whispered their bet to the teller out of fear of being shunned by society.
It's likely that in Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the crowd will bet Big Brown like they're taking the Harlem Globetrotters over the Washington Generals. In the morning line, Big Brown is 1/2, but as group think gains momentum, the Preakness favorite might go off at 2/5 or less.
And don't get me wrong. I would like to see a Triple Crown winner as much as the next guy. However, horse racing is a betting game. Nostalgia, sentiment and misty eyes are nice, but show me how they make you money and I'll be more interested. Whatever happens, is going to happen, so why root for anything?
Big Brown is going great right now. But when a horse like him pays 25-cents on the dollar, he must win 8 of 10 races for his backers to break even. So it's practically impossible to make any decent money on Big Brown's type.
However, if Big Brown loses, the tote board will light up like a Christmas tree. Just like it did in 1996, when Dare and Go paid more than $80 as he stopped Cigar's 16-race win streak in the Pacific Classic; and in 2004, $2 tickets on Birdstone were worth more than $70 when he derailed Smarty Jones' Triple Crown dreams in the Belmont Stakes; also, not many forget the 2006 Preakness, when Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1.
And finally, back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, Sarava defeated War Emblem and paid in excess of $140.
Certainly, whoever beats Big Brown will probably pay at least $18 and could well pay a monster price. Some Preakness runners look hopeless. So I am throwing out seven of the 12 horses: Tres Borrachos, Giant Moon, Riley Tucker, Macho Again, Icabad Crane, Hey Byrn and Kentucky Bear.
Of the remaining four, not including Big Brown, I consider Gayego to be the best. In the Kentucky Derby, he had a bad break and was never in the race. But his previous race in the Arkansas Derby is only a few lengths inferior to Big Brown. In that April 12 race, Gayego stayed near the lead on a fast pace and won by 3/4 of a length. If Big Brown takes back, Gayego may get loose on a slow lead. Regardless, I think he's a good bet at 6/1 or more.
Kent Desormeaux is riding Big Brown extremely confidently and he may try to go wire to wire. Speed horses like Tres Borrachos and Giant Moon may force a fast pace, which could soften Big Brown up for late closers like Racecar Rhapsody and Stevil, which I would bet at 15/1.
Also, Yankee Bravo doesn't look like much in the racing form, but my pace ratings show that if he can stay back early, this horse is another who could come late with a furious closing kick. I'll bet at 10/1.
Of course, the most likely Preakness Stakes outcome is for Desormeaux to ride Big Brown to another victory at a tiny mutuel. And the most likely outcome for bettors consistently wagering on horses like Big Brown is a disappointing ride to the poor house.
Maybe he won't lose the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, but sometime between now and August, he will lose.
Cigar lost. Smarty Jones lost. And War Emblem lost. They all lose at one time or another.
Sometime this year, maybe in the Belmont, the Haskell or the Travers -- or it could be on Saturday -- a field of of 3-year-olds will roar down the stretch, and the racetrack crowd will become silent as people realize that Big Brown isn't running his race. That the king is being dethroned.
When it's over, horseplayers will blankly stare at each other in the same way pre-2004 Red Sox fans did after the last game of every season.
The racing crowd will look contemptuously at the jockey and trainer celebrating in the winner's circle, wondering how they could be so happy at such a depressing moment. And at the press conference that follows, the connections will practically apologize for winning and spoiling every one's day.
It's happened too many times before for me to believe that it won't happen again. Public handicappers will compare Big Brown to Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed -- in the same way young NBA players are compared to Michael Jordan.
But greatness doesn't come around much and it's always proven and never anointed.
I can hear Hank Goldberg now telling America that Big Brown ran one of the most impressive Kentucky Derby's in recent history. And that the real race in the Preakness is for second place.
But, Hank, what about the two-week layoff? What about the bad feet? What about a bounce? Don't you know how fragile horses are? How do we know he's 100 percent?
Hank might breeze through the negatives, but he'll conclude that Big Brown is just too good. And people will believe him, partly because they saw the Derby with their own eyes. They'll think 'how can a great horse like Big Brown lose to one of those other bums?' Nobody will be able to find anybody who is rooting against, or betting against Big Brown. The ones who do bet against him, aren't talking, and probably whispered their bet to the teller out of fear of being shunned by society.
It's likely that in Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the crowd will bet Big Brown like they're taking the Harlem Globetrotters over the Washington Generals. In the morning line, Big Brown is 1/2, but as group think gains momentum, the Preakness favorite might go off at 2/5 or less.
And don't get me wrong. I would like to see a Triple Crown winner as much as the next guy. However, horse racing is a betting game. Nostalgia, sentiment and misty eyes are nice, but show me how they make you money and I'll be more interested. Whatever happens, is going to happen, so why root for anything?
Big Brown is going great right now. But when a horse like him pays 25-cents on the dollar, he must win 8 of 10 races for his backers to break even. So it's practically impossible to make any decent money on Big Brown's type.
However, if Big Brown loses, the tote board will light up like a Christmas tree. Just like it did in 1996, when Dare and Go paid more than $80 as he stopped Cigar's 16-race win streak in the Pacific Classic; and in 2004, $2 tickets on Birdstone were worth more than $70 when he derailed Smarty Jones' Triple Crown dreams in the Belmont Stakes; also, not many forget the 2006 Preakness, when Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1.
And finally, back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, Sarava defeated War Emblem and paid in excess of $140.
Certainly, whoever beats Big Brown will probably pay at least $18 and could well pay a monster price. Some Preakness runners look hopeless. So I am throwing out seven of the 12 horses: Tres Borrachos, Giant Moon, Riley Tucker, Macho Again, Icabad Crane, Hey Byrn and Kentucky Bear.
Of the remaining four, not including Big Brown, I consider Gayego to be the best. In the Kentucky Derby, he had a bad break and was never in the race. But his previous race in the Arkansas Derby is only a few lengths inferior to Big Brown. In that April 12 race, Gayego stayed near the lead on a fast pace and won by 3/4 of a length. If Big Brown takes back, Gayego may get loose on a slow lead. Regardless, I think he's a good bet at 6/1 or more.
Kent Desormeaux is riding Big Brown extremely confidently and he may try to go wire to wire. Speed horses like Tres Borrachos and Giant Moon may force a fast pace, which could soften Big Brown up for late closers like Racecar Rhapsody and Stevil, which I would bet at 15/1.
Also, Yankee Bravo doesn't look like much in the racing form, but my pace ratings show that if he can stay back early, this horse is another who could come late with a furious closing kick. I'll bet at 10/1.
Of course, the most likely Preakness Stakes outcome is for Desormeaux to ride Big Brown to another victory at a tiny mutuel. And the most likely outcome for bettors consistently wagering on horses like Big Brown is a disappointing ride to the poor house.
Friday, May 9, 2008
Young horses quick, but increasingly fragile; breeding "at a crisis state" says industry expert
Every year, the Preakness Stakes not only attracts some of the best 3-year-old colts in training, but also a massive throng of enthusiastic horse-racing fans. Some come wearing button-down navy blazers and sip sparkling water in the comfortable clubhouse, while others dress in old T-shirts, guzzle Budweiser and fling Frisbees in the sunny infield, as rock-n-roll plays on.
At last year's Preakness Stakes, a record crowd of 121,263 watched as Curlin bested Kentucky Derby-winner Street Sense by a head. This year, Big Brown could be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978, and a huge crowd is expected at Pimlico to see if he can take the second jewel.
Of course, people who have never heard of Big Brown will attend for the social atmosphere, and the grizzled horseplayers will be there because they always are -- that's just what they do.
However, another group has also circled Preakness Day on its calendar. This group is just as enthusiastic as the others, yet they're not coming to Pimlico because they love horse racing, but because they hate it.
And they want it to end.
PETA is planning to picket the May 17 Preakness Stakes but, ironically, the protest might do more to pressure Thoroughbred racing into saving itself than to end the sport. People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals says that when Eight Belles shattered both ankles and died on the racetrack at the Kentucky Derby, it was a reminder that horses are being exploited and abused.
Eight Belles death came two years after 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro was injured in the Preakness. Barbaro struggled to recover for months, but was also euthanized.
PETA says horses are raced too early, the hard dirt tracks are dangerous to joints, and that jockeys whip the horses too hard.
"In pursuit of cash and industry prizes and hefty stud fees, some trainers and owners run horses too young, dose them with large quantities of drugs, order jockeys to whip them mercilessly, race horses when they're exhausted and lame, and sell them for slaughter when they can no longer turn a profit," said a release on the PETA website entitled "Drugged, whipped and run to death. A call for Congressional hearings."
On the PETA website, folks are asked click a button to add their names to a petition headed to Congress. PETA, a group which believes animals deserve to live free from suffering and exploitation, goes so far as demanding an end to horse racing. But also lists less drastic requests such as banning whips and mandating that tracks install synthetic surfaces, which are believed to be kinder to horse's bones and joints.
Industry insiders acknowledge that Thoroughbreds are much more fragile today than they were decades ago. And some experts fear that, unless breeding tendencies change, injury problems might get to the point where horses won't run much more than once a year. They point to a study which shows that, in 1960, the average racehorse in the United States made 11.3 starts a year, but today they only run 6.3 times.
"We are at a crisis state," said Churchill Downs veterinarian and equine surgeon Dr. Larry Bramlage to the the Wall Street Journal. "The soundness of the horses has completely gone out the window because we don't reward it anymore. Pretty soon we won't have any animals that can go more than one race."
Two main reasons for unsound horses are that, decades ago, breeders raced the horses they produced, so they had an interest in breeding durable runners, said columnist Andrew Beyer in the Daily Racing Form. But now breeders sell most of their racehorses to others. Also, during the last few decades, Thoroughbred racing expanded the use of medication, some of which is banned in other countries.
"They allow infirm horses to achieve success, go to stud and pass on their infirmities to the next generation," Beyer wrote.
These days, horses are bred for brilliant speed, so owners can get quick returns in 2-year-old or 3-year-old races. And one of the most prolific breeding lines is that of Native Dancer, a champion in the 1950's. Native Dancer produces horses with heavy muscling that can overwhelm the ankles and feet, said Anne Peters, the matings advisor for Three Chimneys Farm, which bred Eight Belles.
Native Dancer himself had leg problems that ended his career.
"Many of the family's descendants tend to pass on unsoundness," Peters told the Wall Street Journal.
Horse racing's problems have grown partly because it has not had an outspoken critic to pressure change, said the Humane Society's President Wayne Pacelle.
"It's time for the Thoroughbred industry to deal with its problems," said Pacelle to the Blood Horse magazine.
Racing leaders recognize that the high-profile injuries to Eight Belles and Barbaro have caused people to turn against the sport. And they seem motivated to find solutions. Greg Means of the Alpine Group, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s lobbyist in Washington, D.C., said that the horse racing industry will not ignore the concerns of special-interest groups like PETA and the Humane Society, which have millions of constituents.
“I think they have to be taken seriously in the climate that is Washington, D.C.,” Means told the Blood Horse.
Breeding and medication issues cannot be solved anytime soon, but on May 8 the Jockey Club formed a Thoroughbred Safety Committee. Seven of the club's members were chosen to review every facet of equine health -- including breeding practices, medication, the rules of racing and track surfaces. It intends to issue recommendations to be adopted by the industry that lead to horse safety.
The seven members of the committee are Stuart S. Janney III (chairman), John Barr, James G. (Jimmy) Bell, Dr. Larry Bramlage, Donald R. Dizney, Dell Hancock and Dr. Hiram C. Polk Jr. Each is a member of the Jockey Club. The committee will meet for the first time on May 14, three days before the Preakness Stakes.
“All seven of these individuals have dedicated a major part of their lives to thoroughbred breeding and racing and have shown a consistent and unwavering concern for the welfare of Thoroughbreds,” said Ogden Mills Phipps, the chairman of the Jockey Club. “We will reach out to involve others in the industry and we will do everything in our power to encourage changes that will benefit the breed in any way. We will do this in a timely manner.”
At last year's Preakness Stakes, a record crowd of 121,263 watched as Curlin bested Kentucky Derby-winner Street Sense by a head. This year, Big Brown could be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978, and a huge crowd is expected at Pimlico to see if he can take the second jewel.
Of course, people who have never heard of Big Brown will attend for the social atmosphere, and the grizzled horseplayers will be there because they always are -- that's just what they do.
However, another group has also circled Preakness Day on its calendar. This group is just as enthusiastic as the others, yet they're not coming to Pimlico because they love horse racing, but because they hate it.
And they want it to end.
PETA is planning to picket the May 17 Preakness Stakes but, ironically, the protest might do more to pressure Thoroughbred racing into saving itself than to end the sport. People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals says that when Eight Belles shattered both ankles and died on the racetrack at the Kentucky Derby, it was a reminder that horses are being exploited and abused.
Eight Belles death came two years after 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro was injured in the Preakness. Barbaro struggled to recover for months, but was also euthanized.
PETA says horses are raced too early, the hard dirt tracks are dangerous to joints, and that jockeys whip the horses too hard.
"In pursuit of cash and industry prizes and hefty stud fees, some trainers and owners run horses too young, dose them with large quantities of drugs, order jockeys to whip them mercilessly, race horses when they're exhausted and lame, and sell them for slaughter when they can no longer turn a profit," said a release on the PETA website entitled "Drugged, whipped and run to death. A call for Congressional hearings."
On the PETA website, folks are asked click a button to add their names to a petition headed to Congress. PETA, a group which believes animals deserve to live free from suffering and exploitation, goes so far as demanding an end to horse racing. But also lists less drastic requests such as banning whips and mandating that tracks install synthetic surfaces, which are believed to be kinder to horse's bones and joints.
Industry insiders acknowledge that Thoroughbreds are much more fragile today than they were decades ago. And some experts fear that, unless breeding tendencies change, injury problems might get to the point where horses won't run much more than once a year. They point to a study which shows that, in 1960, the average racehorse in the United States made 11.3 starts a year, but today they only run 6.3 times.
"We are at a crisis state," said Churchill Downs veterinarian and equine surgeon Dr. Larry Bramlage to the the Wall Street Journal. "The soundness of the horses has completely gone out the window because we don't reward it anymore. Pretty soon we won't have any animals that can go more than one race."
Two main reasons for unsound horses are that, decades ago, breeders raced the horses they produced, so they had an interest in breeding durable runners, said columnist Andrew Beyer in the Daily Racing Form. But now breeders sell most of their racehorses to others. Also, during the last few decades, Thoroughbred racing expanded the use of medication, some of which is banned in other countries.
"They allow infirm horses to achieve success, go to stud and pass on their infirmities to the next generation," Beyer wrote.
These days, horses are bred for brilliant speed, so owners can get quick returns in 2-year-old or 3-year-old races. And one of the most prolific breeding lines is that of Native Dancer, a champion in the 1950's. Native Dancer produces horses with heavy muscling that can overwhelm the ankles and feet, said Anne Peters, the matings advisor for Three Chimneys Farm, which bred Eight Belles.
Native Dancer himself had leg problems that ended his career.
"Many of the family's descendants tend to pass on unsoundness," Peters told the Wall Street Journal.
Horse racing's problems have grown partly because it has not had an outspoken critic to pressure change, said the Humane Society's President Wayne Pacelle.
"It's time for the Thoroughbred industry to deal with its problems," said Pacelle to the Blood Horse magazine.
Racing leaders recognize that the high-profile injuries to Eight Belles and Barbaro have caused people to turn against the sport. And they seem motivated to find solutions. Greg Means of the Alpine Group, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s lobbyist in Washington, D.C., said that the horse racing industry will not ignore the concerns of special-interest groups like PETA and the Humane Society, which have millions of constituents.
“I think they have to be taken seriously in the climate that is Washington, D.C.,” Means told the Blood Horse.
Breeding and medication issues cannot be solved anytime soon, but on May 8 the Jockey Club formed a Thoroughbred Safety Committee. Seven of the club's members were chosen to review every facet of equine health -- including breeding practices, medication, the rules of racing and track surfaces. It intends to issue recommendations to be adopted by the industry that lead to horse safety.
The seven members of the committee are Stuart S. Janney III (chairman), John Barr, James G. (Jimmy) Bell, Dr. Larry Bramlage, Donald R. Dizney, Dell Hancock and Dr. Hiram C. Polk Jr. Each is a member of the Jockey Club. The committee will meet for the first time on May 14, three days before the Preakness Stakes.
“All seven of these individuals have dedicated a major part of their lives to thoroughbred breeding and racing and have shown a consistent and unwavering concern for the welfare of Thoroughbreds,” said Ogden Mills Phipps, the chairman of the Jockey Club. “We will reach out to involve others in the industry and we will do everything in our power to encourage changes that will benefit the breed in any way. We will do this in a timely manner.”
Monday, May 5, 2008
Celebrity horse Big Brown is now unbettable
Pssst. Big Brown is good.
Trainer Richard Dutrow knew it, and he told us. And told us. And told us.
But people who've been around race tracks for awhile have heard it all before. Flamboyant owners and trainers, it seems, have boldly predicted great victories for their horses since -- well -- men began training race horses.
And you can usually count on one thing: their sure thing will surely lose.
Big Brown, however, didn't lose. And what's more amazing is that the lightly-raced horse might have run better than the trainer said he would.
In the weeks of training leading up to Saturday's Kentucky Derby, Dutrow told anybody carrying a microphone, tape recorder or notebook, essentially that his horse was a lock. Then the trainer hinted that he planned to bet $100,000 of his own money.
"I feel very confident that if Big Brown breaks with the field, he will run a big race. I just haven't seen any other horse with my eyes that can beat him," Dutrow told the Daily Racing Form. "We're going to be betting on him."
In the Derby, Big Brown ran four paths wide on both turns as jockey Kent Desormeaux sat a few lengths off of the lead early. But the lost ground didn't matter because at the top of the stretch, Big Brown sprinted away from the 19 other runners, winning by 4 3/4 lengths.
"Everything went exactly the way I envisioned it would go," Dutrow told the Evansville Courier & Press afterward.
Big Brown only paid $6.80 as the favorite. But that's what happens when the trainer tips his horse to everyone in America.
As a sport, Saturday wasn't a great day for thoroughbred racing's image. The Kentucky Derby is one of the few times during the year when horse racing is celebrated by mainstream America. But filly Eight Belles, who finished a gallant second, broke down while pulling up and had to be destroyed.
Usually after the Derby, television reporters focus on the euphoric winning jockey, trainer and owners while the bed or roses is draped across the horse. But Eight Belles forced the spotlight to shine on the depressing reality of how dangerous of a game racing really is.
As horrible as it was, the post-race atmosphere could have been much worse.
Imagine for a moment that Big Brown ran poorly, or had to be scratched for whatever reason. Eight Belles would have won the race, then broke down and died. Immediately after the Derby, the announcers would have been celebrating a filly overcoming the odds to beat the colts, then a few minutes later would have been forced to tell us that she died. And if Eight Belles had been the Derby winner, her death would have hit millions of viewers much harder.
Television screens across America would have showed tears on the faces of the winning connections instead of smiles, and no horse would have been available to parade around the winners's circle wearing the bed of roses. The jubilant scene that millions of Americans have come to expect after the Derby would have been replaced by sadness and gloom.
As for future of Big Brown, the buzz now is all about him winning the Preakness and Belmont to become the first to take the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. But from a wagering perspective, he's unbettable until he loses, as his odds will be too low.
In his next few races, I'm betting against him because history shows that whoever beats Big Brown will likely pay a monster price. In the past, celebrity horses like Cigar, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Barbaro all lost to runners who paid much more than they should have. In 1996, Dare and Go was 39/1 when he beat Cigar in the Pacific Classic; Smarty Jones lost the 2004 Belmont Stakes to 36-1 shot Birdstone; in the 2006 Preakness, Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1; and back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, 70/1 shot Sarava defeated War Emblem.
These overlays are available, I believe, because horseplayers get emotional and cannot wager against these hugely popular animals. In some peoples' minds, it is un-American to do so.
Although some folks might feel foolish betting against what everybody else considers a foregone conclusion, I believe taking two or three decent-looking opponents in Big Brown's next few races is a great way to cash a huge ticket.
No question, Big Brown is undefeated and is going great right now.
But they all lose, eventually.
Trainer Richard Dutrow knew it, and he told us. And told us. And told us.
But people who've been around race tracks for awhile have heard it all before. Flamboyant owners and trainers, it seems, have boldly predicted great victories for their horses since -- well -- men began training race horses.
And you can usually count on one thing: their sure thing will surely lose.
Big Brown, however, didn't lose. And what's more amazing is that the lightly-raced horse might have run better than the trainer said he would.
In the weeks of training leading up to Saturday's Kentucky Derby, Dutrow told anybody carrying a microphone, tape recorder or notebook, essentially that his horse was a lock. Then the trainer hinted that he planned to bet $100,000 of his own money.
"I feel very confident that if Big Brown breaks with the field, he will run a big race. I just haven't seen any other horse with my eyes that can beat him," Dutrow told the Daily Racing Form. "We're going to be betting on him."
In the Derby, Big Brown ran four paths wide on both turns as jockey Kent Desormeaux sat a few lengths off of the lead early. But the lost ground didn't matter because at the top of the stretch, Big Brown sprinted away from the 19 other runners, winning by 4 3/4 lengths.
"Everything went exactly the way I envisioned it would go," Dutrow told the Evansville Courier & Press afterward.
Big Brown only paid $6.80 as the favorite. But that's what happens when the trainer tips his horse to everyone in America.
As a sport, Saturday wasn't a great day for thoroughbred racing's image. The Kentucky Derby is one of the few times during the year when horse racing is celebrated by mainstream America. But filly Eight Belles, who finished a gallant second, broke down while pulling up and had to be destroyed.
Usually after the Derby, television reporters focus on the euphoric winning jockey, trainer and owners while the bed or roses is draped across the horse. But Eight Belles forced the spotlight to shine on the depressing reality of how dangerous of a game racing really is.
As horrible as it was, the post-race atmosphere could have been much worse.
Imagine for a moment that Big Brown ran poorly, or had to be scratched for whatever reason. Eight Belles would have won the race, then broke down and died. Immediately after the Derby, the announcers would have been celebrating a filly overcoming the odds to beat the colts, then a few minutes later would have been forced to tell us that she died. And if Eight Belles had been the Derby winner, her death would have hit millions of viewers much harder.
Television screens across America would have showed tears on the faces of the winning connections instead of smiles, and no horse would have been available to parade around the winners's circle wearing the bed of roses. The jubilant scene that millions of Americans have come to expect after the Derby would have been replaced by sadness and gloom.
As for future of Big Brown, the buzz now is all about him winning the Preakness and Belmont to become the first to take the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. But from a wagering perspective, he's unbettable until he loses, as his odds will be too low.
In his next few races, I'm betting against him because history shows that whoever beats Big Brown will likely pay a monster price. In the past, celebrity horses like Cigar, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Barbaro all lost to runners who paid much more than they should have. In 1996, Dare and Go was 39/1 when he beat Cigar in the Pacific Classic; Smarty Jones lost the 2004 Belmont Stakes to 36-1 shot Birdstone; in the 2006 Preakness, Barbaro tragically broke down and never finished the race won by Bernardini at 13/1; and back in the 2002 Belmont Stakes, 70/1 shot Sarava defeated War Emblem.
These overlays are available, I believe, because horseplayers get emotional and cannot wager against these hugely popular animals. In some peoples' minds, it is un-American to do so.
Although some folks might feel foolish betting against what everybody else considers a foregone conclusion, I believe taking two or three decent-looking opponents in Big Brown's next few races is a great way to cash a huge ticket.
No question, Big Brown is undefeated and is going great right now.
But they all lose, eventually.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Kentucky Derby Strategy
Ah, the Kentucky Derby.
It's the most widely recognized race in the United States and the best betting race of the year. That's because every year the field is packed with up to 20 horses, but at least half of them don't stand a chance. They're entered by enthusiastic owners who want the "derby experience." And for many race fans, the Derby is the only horse race they play all year, so these novices bet bad horses that bump up the odds on legitimate contenders.
When handicapping the Derby, the first thing I do is throw out the runners who I don't think can win. So far it's worked well, as the only non-contender to beat me since 1996 was Giacomo a couple of years ago.
This year, Big Brown is getting all of the hype and his pace numbers look alot like Silver Charm's did when that horse won the 1997 Kentucky Derby. Along with Big Brown, Colonel John also has a good shot.
But bad things can happen on the road to the finish line in a 20-horse field, including traffic problems, bad rides, a fast pace or a slow pace. With the huge crowd on hand, many horses get spooked and just don't fire on Derby Day, so I suggest you need a minimum of 3/1 to bet Big Brown -- and you probably won't get it.
After throwing out 12 horses, I came up with six other contenders to go with Big Brown and Colonel John. They are Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Pyro, Z Humor, Monba and Gayego.
According to my pace ratings Gayego and Big Brown are the two horses with the best combination of early speed and closing kick. I'm not saying either one will be on the lead, but they might be laying anywhere from third through sixth entering the first turn before easing toward the front on the back stretch. However, horses like Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba, Z Humor, Pyro and Colonel John need to sit anywhere five to 15 lengths off the pace for their best shot.
Most Kentucky Derbies are won by horses near the lead on the far turn, so these late runners need good luck to get through the heavy traffic. As a bettor, the added risk means you must have high odds. And in a 20-horse field, there is nothing wrong with spreading the risk around by playing three separate horses to win, as it's similar to betting one horse in a seven-horse race.
At 15/1 or more I'd consider betting Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba or Z Humor. Gayego is 12/1 on the morning line, but I'd bet him at 8/1 or better. Finally, Colonel John and Pyro look about the same to me, and they'll be fighting through traffic also, so I would need at least 6/1 to bet either of those.
Some of the contenders will be bet too low and I won't be able to use them, but others will be great prices and those are the ones that I'll buy my tickets on.
And if Big Brown wins by four lengths and pays $5.80, I'll live with it.
It's the most widely recognized race in the United States and the best betting race of the year. That's because every year the field is packed with up to 20 horses, but at least half of them don't stand a chance. They're entered by enthusiastic owners who want the "derby experience." And for many race fans, the Derby is the only horse race they play all year, so these novices bet bad horses that bump up the odds on legitimate contenders.
When handicapping the Derby, the first thing I do is throw out the runners who I don't think can win. So far it's worked well, as the only non-contender to beat me since 1996 was Giacomo a couple of years ago.
This year, Big Brown is getting all of the hype and his pace numbers look alot like Silver Charm's did when that horse won the 1997 Kentucky Derby. Along with Big Brown, Colonel John also has a good shot.
But bad things can happen on the road to the finish line in a 20-horse field, including traffic problems, bad rides, a fast pace or a slow pace. With the huge crowd on hand, many horses get spooked and just don't fire on Derby Day, so I suggest you need a minimum of 3/1 to bet Big Brown -- and you probably won't get it.
After throwing out 12 horses, I came up with six other contenders to go with Big Brown and Colonel John. They are Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Pyro, Z Humor, Monba and Gayego.
According to my pace ratings Gayego and Big Brown are the two horses with the best combination of early speed and closing kick. I'm not saying either one will be on the lead, but they might be laying anywhere from third through sixth entering the first turn before easing toward the front on the back stretch. However, horses like Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba, Z Humor, Pyro and Colonel John need to sit anywhere five to 15 lengths off the pace for their best shot.
Most Kentucky Derbies are won by horses near the lead on the far turn, so these late runners need good luck to get through the heavy traffic. As a bettor, the added risk means you must have high odds. And in a 20-horse field, there is nothing wrong with spreading the risk around by playing three separate horses to win, as it's similar to betting one horse in a seven-horse race.
At 15/1 or more I'd consider betting Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Monba or Z Humor. Gayego is 12/1 on the morning line, but I'd bet him at 8/1 or better. Finally, Colonel John and Pyro look about the same to me, and they'll be fighting through traffic also, so I would need at least 6/1 to bet either of those.
Some of the contenders will be bet too low and I won't be able to use them, but others will be great prices and those are the ones that I'll buy my tickets on.
And if Big Brown wins by four lengths and pays $5.80, I'll live with it.
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